Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eker en Agosto 03, 2011, 12:58:21 pm
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A la espera de que la marina actualize datos, tenemos a MERBOK
(http://img803.imageshack.us/img803/1353/201108030306aquaxvisqkm.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/803/201108030306aquaxvisqkm.jpg/)
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Ya es TORMENTA TROPICAL ;D
wtpn31 pgtw 031500
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical storm 12w (Merbok) warning nr 002
upgraded from tropical depression 12w
02 active tropical cyclones in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
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warning position:
031200z --- near 23.5n 159.4e
movement past six hours - 270 degrees at 12 kts
position accurate to within 060 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 035 kt, gusts 045 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
repeat posit: 23.5n 159.4e
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forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
040000z --- 24.2n 157.3e
Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 034 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 310 deg/ 08 kts
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24 hrs, valid at:
041200z --- 25.2n 156.0e
Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
020 nm southeast quadrant
020 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
035 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
035 nm northwest quadrant
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No sé que pasa, pero tanto la marina como el FNMOC están teniendo problemas hoy para dar datos ???
MERBOK, como comentan, es TS
(http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/4594/visx.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/683/visx.jpg/)
Como las principales no actualizan, vemos como por ejemplo DVORAK da rachas de viento de TS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2011 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 23:53:32 N Lon : 158:15:31 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 / 999.9mb/ 34.0kt
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Se está moviendo en aguas de 30ºC por lo que se reforzará algo más, dado que la cizalla es baja también (5-10 kts)
Composición SST + SHEAR
(http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/7714/sst.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/845/sst.png/)
... y dejo trayectoria
(http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/2023/201112w.png) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/713/201112w.png/)
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El churrasco de MERBOK :P
12W.MERBOK.40kts.993mb.24.7N.157.3E
(http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/5066/avnt.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/535/avnt.jpg/)
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Se ha organizado bastante y ha formado una considerable "bola" :P
12W.MERBOK.50kts.985mb.26.8N.155.3E
(http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/1665/201108051113mtsat1rir12.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/607/201108051113mtsat1rir12.jpg/)
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MERBOK es tifón con cat.1
12W.MERBOK.65kts.974mb.28.7N.154E
(http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/3224/avnr.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/220/avnr.jpg/)
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MERBOK baja a TS
12W.MERBOK.50kts.985mb.39.2N.160.3E
(http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/4558/avn1.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/94/avn1.jpg/)
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Historial de la perturbación
Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
08/03 6 GMT 23.50 160.70 35 Unknown Tropical Depression
08/03 12 GMT 23.50 159.40 40 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/03 18 GMT 23.30 158.90 40 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/04 0 GMT 24.30 158.40 45 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/04 6 GMT 24.70 157.30 45 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/04 12 GMT 24.90 156.70 40 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/04 18 GMT 25.40 156.20 40 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/05 0 GMT 26.30 155.40 50 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/05 6 GMT 26.80 155.30 60 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/05 12 GMT 27.00 154.70 65 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/05 18 GMT 27.60 154.20 65 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/06 0 GMT 28.10 153.80 70 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/06 6 GMT 28.70 154.00 75 Unknown Category 1
08/06 12 GMT 29.30 153.80 85 Unknown Category 1
08/06 18 GMT 30.30 153.90 85 Unknown Category 1
08/07 0 GMT 31.00 154.00 90 Unknown Category 1
08/07 6 GMT 31.50 154.10 85 Unknown Category 1
08/07 12 GMT 32.40 154.40 80 Unknown Category 1
08/07 18 GMT 33.10 155.00 75 Unknown Category 1
08/08 0 GMT 34.30 156.20 75 Unknown Category 1
08/08 6 GMT 35.90 157.80 70 Unknown Tropical Storm
08/08 12 GMT 37.40 159.10 65 Unknown Tropical Storm