THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY AN OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM CIMS BUT IS HIGHER THAN
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THERE IS,
HOWEVER, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
EYE FEATURE.

TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NER.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE
SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY THE ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING AS VWS INCREASES AS THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST BUILDS AND ASSUMES STEERING.