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Autor Tema: Tormenta subtropical ALBERTO 01L, Golfo de México, Atlántico N - Mayo 2018  (Leído 6993 veces)

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La temporada arranca antes de tiempo... ::) La lluvia torrencial, el principal y temido FMA que se espera...

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Eric Blake  🌀
@EricBlake12

Glad #Miami got a few days to dry out before the outer fringes of #Alberto hit today- that 7-day @NWSWPC rain forecast for south #Florida is 😳 - could hit ~18 inches of rain for May at home!




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Del siguiente boletín de discusión del CNH se extraen interesantes conclusiones:

1) El ciclón persiste como entidad subtropical, debido a la acción del aire seco y la cizalladura, que impiden el acoplamiento del LLCC y la convección.

2) No se descarta una cierta intensificación para dentro de unas horas, debido a un relajamiento de la cizalladura. Así, el ciclón podría convertirse en totalmente tropical, pasando a ser una tormenta tropical.

3) El principal Fenómeno Meteorológico Adverso, FMA, asociado, son las lluvias torrenciales, que afectarán a toda Florida y los estados vecinos de Misisipi, Alabama y Luisiana, por ahora.

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 260853
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Alberto is not very well organized this morning.  Satellite images
indicate that the low-level center is located between widespread
showers and thunderstorms well to its northeast and patches of deep
convection to its south and east.  The struggling cyclone continues
to battle westerly shear and dry air.  A recent ASCAT pass indicated
that winds near the center were not particularly strong. The initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt pending a sampling of
the circulation farther east by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft
in a few hours.  Alberto remains subtropical given its sprawling
structure and involvement with an upper-level trough.

The subtropical storm has now turned north-northeastward at an
estimated speed of 6 kt.  This general motion with a increase in
forward speed is expected throughout the day today, taking the
center of Alberto through the Yucatan Channel.  A turn to the
northwest is forecast on Sunday as the storm rotates around a
developing mid- to upper-level low in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Alberto is predicted to be very near the northern Gulf Coast in
about 72 hours, and should then turn northward and northeastward
when it moves inland over the eastern U.S.  The models are in
fairly good agreement this cycle, but they have trended a bit faster
from previous runs.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly, and lies fairly close to the latest consensus aids.

Only slow strengthening is expected today due to the broad nature
of the system and continued influences of westerly shear and dry
air.  There is an opportunity for more significant strengthening
tonight and Sunday when the shear is expected to lessen and
Alberto moves into a region of upper-level diffluence while it
remains over warm SSTs.  The models also suggest that Alberto will
likely make a transition to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and
that is reflected in the official forecast below.  The official
intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and is in
line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

The HMON model is now the only intensity guidance that makes
Alberto a hurricane before it reaches the coast.  Although a
hurricane watch could still be required for a portion of the Gulf
Coast later today, the recent intensity guidance trends suggest
that this possibility is decreasing.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding
potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region
and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are
possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast
beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of
Alberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in
effect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are
encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of
Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread
along the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and
tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 19.9N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 21.6N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 24.3N  85.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 26.2N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 48H  28/0600Z 27.5N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

 72H  29/0600Z 30.4N  87.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  30/0600Z 33.3N  88.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/0600Z 38.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg


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Los preparativos para hacer frente al envite de ALBERTO deberían estar completados antes de mañana por la noche. Vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical se espera que lleguen a las costas, acompañados de lluvia torrencial y marejada ciclónica.

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Hurricane Tracker App
@hurrtrackerapp

Preparations for #Alberto should be rushed to completion by Sunday evening, as this is when the tropical-storm-force winds may arrive as well as the heavy rain and storm surge.



Podrían caer más de 10 pulgadas (250 mm) de lluvia cerca de las costas del GOM afectadas por ALBERTO mientras este toca tierra el lunes. Existe riesgo moderado de inundación.

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Hurricane Tracker App
@hurrtrackerapp

Up to 10 inches of rain is forecast to fall near the Gulf Coast where #Alberto makes landfall on Monday. There is now a moderate risk for flooding due to the near-foot of rain expected to come down in a relatively-short time period.




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ALBERTO continúa como tormenta subtropical, pero ha realizado algunos cambios que le han conducido a una mejora de organización, aunque su intensidad no ha cambiado. Se espera que una baja en altura provoque una mejora de las condiciones ambientales para que transicione a tropical puro y se intensifique, antes de tocar tierra.

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 270307 CCA
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Corrected typo in key message 3

During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just
north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the
center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position
.
Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best
ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened.  The maximum
flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35
kt at the surface.  The maximum SFMR winds outside of the
convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than
the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they
were.  In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt
which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the
strength of the storm.  Finally, the central pressure has not fallen
since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb.  The initial
intensity will remain 35 kt
, but this could be conservative.

In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm
due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just
west of the cyclone.  After that time, the trough is forecast to
become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or
just north of the low in an area of lighter shear.  This evolution
should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become
more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto
transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h.
There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane
before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt
peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast.
After
landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken
over land through the remainder of the forecast period.

For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward,
although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains
possible.  From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move
north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low.  This
should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern
United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the
westerlies.  The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the
new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the
previous track.  On the current forecast track, Alberto would make
landfall near the 48 h point.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected
to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,
southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding
potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast
region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning
Sunday and will continue into next week.

2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central
and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well
east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge
watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their
local government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread
northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 23.9N  84.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 25.9N  84.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 27.7N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 28.9N  86.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 48H  29/0000Z 30.4N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

 72H  30/0000Z 34.5N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/0000Z 39.0N  86.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/0000Z 42.5N  82.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Mike Adcock
@MikeAdcockWx

At 0449 UTC, gusts to near 40 mph affecting portions of the Keys as #Alberto spreads showers across south Florida and Cuba.


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Animación de imágenes del canal visible con el atardecer de ayer sobre ALBERTO, vía Dakota Smith en Twitter.


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La lluvia sigue siendo el principal FMA esperado de Alberto... Las cantidades del mapa están expresadas en pulgadas. 1" = 25 cm = 250 mm aprox.

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Ryan | weather.us
@RyanMaue

This is what I mean by boatloads of rain.  3-4 inches across the entire Southeast into the Ohio Valley --> up to 7-8"+ around Pensacola from #Alberto ... going to have to calculate the trillions of gallons again

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ALBERTO parece estar ganando organización hoy...

Una boya oceánica justo en el centro del ciclón ha medido olas de 15 pies...

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NHC_TAFB
@NHC_TAFB

A buoy over the eastern Gulf of Mexico recently reported wave heights of 15 ft near the center of  #Subtropical #Storm #Alberto

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Inmerso en la transición tropical... 8)


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ALBERTO no ha conseguido completar la transición tropical, y la NHC lo mantiene como ciclón subtropical, aunque con 55 KT de intensidad. Relativamente lejos de la intensidad de huracán de categoría 1, que son los 65 KT.

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 280244
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

The 0130 UTC center penetration by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicated that the central pressure had held at 991 mb, and no
stronger winds were found after the earlier pass through the center.
Therefore the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.  The
system is still not well organized with some elongation of the
center noted.  Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so
the cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window
of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially
closed.
  Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall,
which is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus and
the Florida State University Superensemble and HCCA predictions.

The forward motion has slowed and turned toward the left and is now
estimated to be 315/08 kt.  Alberto is moving on the northeastern
side of a broad deep-layer cyclonic circulation.  Early this week,
a ridge is forecast to build to the east of the storm, and a trough
will approach Alberto from the northwest.  This pattern should
induce a northward turn over the next few days.  Due to the recent
more northwestward motion of the storm, the first 12-24 hours of the
official forecast have been shifted a little to the west of the
previous one.  Overall, however the latest NHC forecast has not been
changed much and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday.  Heavy
rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida
Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle
into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through
Tuesday.

2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast overnight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the
track of Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area
are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government
officials.

3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the
tropical storm warning area overnight and tomorrow.

4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 28.5N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 29.6N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 31.2N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 33.3N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 35.8N  87.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z 41.5N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 46.5N  82.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Re:Tormenta subtropical ALBERTO 01L, Golfo de México, Atlántico N - Mayo 2018
« Respuesta #10 en: Mayo 28, 2018, 09:41:33 am »
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Mike Adcock
@MikeAdcockWx

Should be the last pass through the center of #Alberto... pressure holding fairly steady at 992 hPa.


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Re:Tormenta subtropical ALBERTO 01L, Golfo de México, Atlántico N - Mayo 2018
« Respuesta #11 en: Mayo 28, 2018, 09:45:54 am »
Un dato interesante sobre ALBERTO:

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Philip Klotzbach
@philklotzbach

#Alberto's current central pressure of 991 mb is the lowest for an Atlantic named storm during May since Subtropical Storm Alpha in 1972.

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Re:Tormenta subtropical ALBERTO 01L, Golfo de México, Atlántico N - Mayo 2018
« Respuesta #12 en: Mayo 28, 2018, 19:38:09 pm »
Alberto, muy cerquita ya de las costas más occidentales de Florida. Apunte interesante del experto Philip Klotzbach:

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Philip Klotzbach
@philklotzbach

#Alberto has now been a named storm for 3.25 days - the longest-lived Atlantic named storm forming in May since Alice in 1953.


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Re:Tormenta subtropical ALBERTO 01L, Golfo de México, Atlántico N - Mayo 2018
« Respuesta #13 en: Mayo 29, 2018, 09:54:00 am »
ALBERTO es ya una depresión subtropical, aunque anoche, tras su entrada en tierra, consiguió aumentar su convección central de forma considerable. Incluso visto a través del radar, su estructura se mostró más simétrica y con intento de desarrollo de ojo, ya bien entrado en tierra.

Ahora las lluvias torrenciales se convierten en el peor problema a su paso. Ya se están produciendo inundaciones...


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Re:Tormenta subtropical ALBERTO 01L, Golfo de México, Atlántico N - Mayo 2018
« Respuesta #14 en: Mayo 30, 2018, 09:56:43 am »
Algo que no se ve todos los días: Alberto es el 1er ciclón sub/tropical en Alabama en mayo en toda la era de los radares meteorológicos o, incluso, antes. Fenómeno excepcional. Lo cuenta @StuOstro en su timeline de Twitter.


 



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