Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018
The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global
models have been advertising for the past several days has
materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie
have been initiated.
Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds
are removed from the center. However, there is a chance as usual
that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection
near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the
next day or so is not out of the question. Global models do
indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that
the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low.
This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time.
Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most
likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow. After
that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie
will likely move east until it becomes absorbed.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 33.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 33.2N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 33.0N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW
$$
Forecaster Avila
Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
Conventional satellite imagery shows little change in Leslie's
cloud pattern during the past several hours with the exception of a
few new isolated thunderstorms developing near the surface center.
Accordingly, the initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35
kt. The statistical intensity guidance and the large-scale models
show Leslie commencing a strengthening trend in 24 hours as a
mid-latitude baroclinic system digs southeastward toward the
cyclone. Some of the models also indicate that Leslie, after
completing an extratropical transition in around 48 hours, will
deepen and generate a large area of gale force winds, particularly
in the northwest quadrant. The NHC intensity forecast reflects this
scenario and is just below the IVCN intensity consensus.
The initial motion is estimated to be an eastward drift, or 090/4 kt
within the increasing mid-level westerly steering flow. A turn to
the east-northeast is forecast as an approaching mid-latitude
trough and associated cold front approaches from the northwest over
the central Atlantic. The deterministic guidance indicate that the
aforementioned baroclinic system will overtake Leslie near the 48
hour period, and influence a transition to a non-tropical low
pressure system. Subsequently, the GFS and the European models
still show extratropical Leslie as the primary system and deepening
with time. For now, the official forecast will indicate a merging
scenario, but succeeding advisories may include extratropical low
forecast points through day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 32.5N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 32.5N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 32.4N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 32.3N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 33.6N 39.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
Leslie's appearance in satellite imagery hasn't changed much this
evening. Deep convection is mainly occuring in bands well displaced
to the southeast of the cyclone's center, and recent ASCAT data
indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 30 kt, with
the highest wind occuring in those bands.
All indications are that Leslie will undergo a complicated
transition over the next several days. Little change is expected
with Leslie until it becomes post-tropical in about 24 hours. After
that time, all of the global models suggest that Leslie will quickly
strengthen as a result of substantial baroclinic forcing, likely
reaching a peak intensity sometime between 48 and 72 h. At the same
time, the cyclone will likely undergo a classic transition from
frontal low to warm seclusion while the wind field rapidly expands,
with 34-kt (gale-force) winds reaching several hundred miles from
the cyclone's center. By 96 h, the models indicate that Leslie will
once again become cut-off from the mid-latitude flow, and could
begin to re-acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. While
each of the global models handles the exact details of this complex
evolution a little differently, confidence is increasing that Leslie
will become a powerful extratropical cyclone over the central
Atlantic over the next few of days. The NHC intensity forecast has
been increased between 36 and 96 h, and is near a average of the
global and regional dynamical model tracker output.
The depression is currently moving slowly eastward with an initial
motion of 090/3 kt. The guidance is in good agreement that Leslie
will accelerate eastward as it becomes more embedded within an
approaching frontal zone. A northward turn is expected by mid-week,
followed by a bend back toward the west by the end of the week as
Leslie strengthens, occludes, and eventually cuts off from the
mid-latitude flow to the north. The NHC track forecast has not been
significantly changed, and is near the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids
at most forecast hours. However, it should be noted that spread in
the guidance is high, especially by the end of the forecast period,
so confidence in the track forecast at that time is low.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 33.1N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
All indications are that Leslie will undergo a complicated
transition over the next several days. Little change is expected
with Leslie until it becomes post-tropical in about 24 hours. After
that time, all of the global models suggest that Leslie will quickly
strengthen as a result of substantial baroclinic forcing, likely
reaching a peak intensity sometime between 48 and 72 h. At the same
time, the cyclone will likely undergo a classic transition from
frontal low to warm seclusion while the wind field rapidly expands,
with 34-kt (gale-force) winds reaching several hundred miles from
the cyclone's center. By 96 h, the models indicate that Leslie will
once again become cut-off from the mid-latitude flow, and could
begin to re-acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018
Leslie has become a post-tropical cyclone. Conventional and
microwave satellite imagery show that Leslie's surface circulation
has become elongated along an intruding baroclinic zone indicated
by a recent 1158 UTC ASCAT-A pass. Any deep convection appears to
be developing due to dynamic forcing. A rather large stratocumulus
cloud shield and associated cooler, stable air is quickly advecting
into the area as well. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt
for this last advisory.
Leslie is forecast to strengthen during the next couple of days due
to baroclinic processes. The official forecast, based on the GFS and
European global models, and the SHIPS statistical intensity
guidance, shows an increase of the sustained winds to hurricane
force in 2 days, around the same period that the shear drops below
10 kt. The non-tropical low is then forecast to move south of the
strong upper-level westerlies and detach from the frontal boundary.
According to the global models and the Florida State Cyclone Phase
forecast, Leslie should make a transition from a frontal system to
an asymmetric shallow warm-core seclusion. Beyond day 3, guidance
suggests that Leslie will acquire subtropical characteristics and a
more symmetric, deepening warm-core low while meandering in weaker
steering currents. The intensity forecast follows this scenario and
is based on the aforementioned global and statistical models.
Leslie is now moving eastward at a slightly faster forward motion,
about 10 kt. A turn to the north is expected in 36 hours followed
by a slower westward motion as Leslie slips south of the
mid-latitude westerlies. Through the remaining portion of the
forecast, Leslie should move at a slower speed generally westward
as a ridge builds to the north. NHC forecast is nudged toward the
TVCN consensus through 48 hours, then follows more closely to the
GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) consensus model.
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 31.6N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0000Z 32.1N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1200Z 33.6N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 35.6N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z 36.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1200Z 35.5N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
96H 29/1200Z 34.6N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
120H 30/1200Z 34.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
$$
Forecaster Roberts
RT Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
@RyanMaue
"The remnants of Subtropical Storm Leslie are in the process of rapidly deepening into an extratropical storm across the central North Atlantic -- and then in 2-3 days, possibly transition into a Subtropical or Tropical storm -- which would be reborn as Michael"
Hay posibilidades a medio plazo de un acercamiento de este sistema a Canarias?
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018
Deep convection surrounding the center of Leslie has become better
organized overnight, with the development of a ragged eye in
infrared satellite images. A 0552 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass
revealed a well-defined low-level eye with a ring of broken
convection surrounding it. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were
4.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt. This makes Leslie the sixth hurricane
of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.
The hurricane is forecast to remain within favorable environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shear
over the next day or two. These conditions should allow for some
additional strengthening. After 48 hours, Leslie will be moving
over cooler waters, which should induce gradual weakening later
in the period.
Leslie has become nearly stationary overnight, and it appears that
the cyclone's equatorward motion has likely come to an end. A
shortwave trough to the northwest of the storm and a building ridge
to the east, are expected to allow Leslie to begin moving northward
by tonight. A northward motion is then expected to continue over
the next 2-3 days, but by the weekend Leslie is predicted to turn
eastward as a broad trough dips southward over the north Atlantic.
The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on this
scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous advisory.
Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the
next couple of days across the southeastern coast of the United
States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.
These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New
England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult
products from your local weather office as these conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 29.6N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 29.7N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 30.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 32.8N 57.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 35.0N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 37.1N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 37.0N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
Brian McNoldy(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DolRAVOX0AAx8LV.jpg)
@BMcNoldy
Hurricane #Leslie becomes the Atlantic season's 6th hurricane... ten days after forming. It will not impact land.
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018
The central convection associated with Leslie has become better
organized this morning, with conventional satellite imagery showing
a tightly curved band and recent microwave imagery showing a
mid-level eye. However, the microwave data also suggests the
mid-level eye is located to the southeast of the low-level center.
It is also not known whether there is an inner wind maximum
associated with this feature. Satellite intensity estimates are
mostly in the 45-55 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 50
kt.
The initial motion is now 080/8. Leslie is now in or near the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and with the
assistance of a couple of shortwave troughs, these are expected to
push Leslie toward the east and southeast throughout the forecast
period. Despite general agreement on the synoptic pattern, there is
now a large spread in the guidance toward the end of the forecast
period. The ECMWF and UKMET show a more southward turn after 72 h,
taking Leslie well south of 30N. The GFS, on the other hand,
shows a more eastward motion to the point where by 96 h it is 950
n mi from the UKMET forecast position. The new forecast track
compromises between these extremes and lies near the TVCN consensus,
with the caveat that the part after 72 h is of low confidence.
Leslie should weaken some during the next 48 h or so as it crosses
an area of cooler sea surface temperatures. After that, the track
takes the center back over warmer water at the same time when there
may be an increase in shear. There is an increased uncertainty in
the intensity forecast caused by the track forecast uncertainties.
If Leslie moves closer to the GFS track, it will be over cooler
water and in stronger shear, while if it moves closer to the UKMET
solution it will be over warmer water and lighter shear. Due to to
the uncertainty, only minor adjustments are made to the previous
intensity forecast. Additional adjustments may be needed later
depending on changes in the track forecast.
Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 37.7N 55.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 37.6N 54.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 37.3N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 36.6N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 35.7N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 33.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 30.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 29.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018
Despite marginal SSTs near 24 deg C, Leslie has persisted with
little change in its structure. An average of the UW-CIMSS SATCON
and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still supports an
initial intensity of 50 kt. Although Leslie is currently located in
a low-shear environment, GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics suggests
that mid-level humidities are fairly low, and the cyclone should
remain over marginal SSTs for the foreseeable future. All of the
intensity guidance forecasts little to no intensity change during
the next day or so.
However, by 36 h, nearly all of the dynamical
models, both global and regional, forecast that Leslie will begin to
restrengthen. On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical models
do not forecast much change through day 5. The NHC forecast has
been adjusted a little higher to keep it close to the intensity
consensus, and I can't rule out that Leslie could become a hurricane
again at some point during the coming week.
No large changes were made to the NHC track forecast, but this
should not be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the forecast.
Leslie is currently moving with an initial motion of east-southeast,
or 115/9 kt. The track model spread is high from the very beginning
of the forecast, with the GFS and its associated regional models
indicating that Leslie will continue on a similar heading for the
next several days, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast that Leslie
will slow down and turn soon turn toward the southeast or
south-southeast. The track forecast variance stems from differences
in how quickly the models show Leslie separating from a mid-level
trough to its north, if at all, and by day 5, the GFS and ECMWF
solutions vary by about 750 n mi. At this point, I don't have a good
reason to pick one solution over another, and it should be noted
that based on the ECMWF ensemble tracks, there is a whole spectrum
of possible solutions between these extremes. The NHC track forecast
therefore remains near the TVCN and GFEX aids as a course of least
regret, but significant changes could be required to future
advisories if the track of Leslie becomes more clear.
Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue through
tonight across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please
consult products from your local weather office as these conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 36.6N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 36.2N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 35.4N 47.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 34.2N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 32.6N 41.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 29.1N 36.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 28.5N 31.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 30.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018
There has not been a lot of change with Leslie overnight. Deep
convection is still organized in curved bands near and to the north
of the center, but there is some dry air entraining into the
western side of the circulation. A blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates supports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt.
Leslie is over cool 24 deg C waters, but it will be headed over
slightly warmer waters during the next few days while remaining in
low wind shear conditions. Therefore, slow strengthening is
expected and most of the intensity models show Leslie reaching
hurricane strength once again within the next 3 to 4 days. By the
end of the period, cooler waters and an increase in shear could
cause some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one, to trend toward the latest IVCN and HCCA
guidance.
Leslie is moving east-southeastward at 11 kt steered by the flow on
the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough over the north
Atlantic. An east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during
the next couple of days as the trough passes by to the north of
Leslie. After that time, another large-scale trough will approach
Leslie from the northwest and that should cause the storm to turn
east-northeastward at a faster pace in the 4 to 5 day time frame.
The models have come into a better agreement this cycle showing a
faster and more northward motion at the end of the period, and the
NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 35.2N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 34.3N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 32.9N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 31.1N 42.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 29.6N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 28.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 31.2N 30.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 36.8N 20.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018
For the fourth (and hopefully final) time as a tropical or
subtropical cyclone, Leslie has crossed 48W. The convective pattern
of the tropical storm hasn't changed significantly over the past
several hours, though there is some evidence of a convective band
attempting to wrap around the western side of the storm. The
initial intensity is still 45 kt, based on a blend of the most
recent current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS
SATCON.
There has been little change in the intensity forecast. Just about
all of the typically reliable intensity models still call for
Leslie to gradually strengthen over the next 3 days, despite
marginal SSTs. All of the dynamical models call for Leslie to
become a hurricane once again by 72 h, but SHIPS and LGEM
are a little lower. The official intensity forecast remains near
the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and calls for Leslie to become a
hurricane by the end of the week.
Leslie has continued to move east-southeastward, now at 12 kt, and
the global models are in good agreement that this motion will
continue through today. After that time, most of the guidance
generally shows that Leslie will separate from a mid-latitude
trough, causing the tropical storm to turn toward the southeast or
south-southeast and slow down. A day or so after that, another
mid-latitude trough will approach from the west and cause Leslie to
accelerate toward the east-northeast. The timing of Leslie's
acceleration is still very uncertain, and the model spread beyond
72 h remains very high. Until the spread decreases, I don't feel
confident making a big change to the forecast, so the official track
forecast has only been slightly tweaked to bring it closer to HCCA
and TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 34.6N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 33.6N 45.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 32.0N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 30.2N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 29.1N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 29.5N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 33.0N 28.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 39.0N 18.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018
Satellite and microwave data show that Leslie continues to have a
small central dense overcast, with the latest microwave images
suggesting that Leslie is forming a mid-level eye. Although deep
convection has recently decreased somewhat, all of the 00Z intensity
estimates were 55 kt or higher, so the wind speed is set to that
value.
There is no significant change in initial motion- still
southeastward at about 12 kt. Leslie should slow down and turn
toward the south-southeast during the next day or two as the cyclone
becomes steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.
A new trough moves into the eastern Atlantic after that time, which
should eject Leslie generally east-northeastward to the south of the
Azores. Models continue to be in poor agreement on whether that
trough will accelerate Leslie quickly to the northeast at long range
or drop the cyclone to the southwest of Portugal. The recent
GFS-based guidance has generally shifted southward and is slower,
more in line with the 12Z UK/ECMWF models. The new NHC forecast
follows that trend, but is still on the northern side of the
consensus due to continuity concerns, and additional southward
adjustments could be required on later advisories.
Leslie is forecast to move across marginally warm waters within a
moderate shear but a more moist environment over the next few days.
These conditions are likely to support slow strengthening, and
model guidance is in general agreement on this scenario. Only
minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast, and the NHC
forecast remains between the intensity consensus and corrected-
consensus aids. By day 5, increasing shear and cold waters
should weaken Leslie, and it will probably lose convection to
transition into a post-tropical cyclone.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 32.9N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.5N 43.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 29.6N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 28.1N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 27.9N 41.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 30.0N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 33.5N 24.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 35.5N 16.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018
Recent Dvorak fixes and ASCAT data indicate that Leslie's maximum
winds remain around 55 kt. Although the winds have not yet
increased, the surface center of the tropical storm has become more
embedded within its cold cloud tops and several recent microwave
overpasses indicate that the cyclone is beginning to establish an
inner-core. Strengthening is therefore still expected, and Leslie is
forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow. The tropical storm is
currently moving south-southeastward at around 11 kt, and the models
are in good agreement that a south-southeastward to southward motion
will continue for the next 24 h or so.
Beginning around 36 h, both the track and intensity forecasts become
very uncertain. In general, most of the global models and their
ensembles indicate that Leslie will begin to accelerate toward the
east-northeast or northeast by Thursday as a mid-latitude trough
approaches from the northwest, however the timing and extent of the
interaction is still highly variable from model to model. Based on
the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, a range of possibilities exists, from
Leslie essentially merging with this trough and becoming
extratropical over the far northeast Atlantic, to Leslie interacting
with the trough very little and continuing to meander over the
central Atlantic. There has been a significant change in the
consensus aids to show a slower track for Leslie based on recent
shifts in the deterministic models, but the NHC track forecast has
not been changed nearly as much, out of respect for continuity and
the high uncertainty in the forecast.
The low confidence in the track forecast beyond 36 h affects the
intensity forecast as well, since it is unclear what environment the
storm will be located within. The intensity forecast is therefore
held near the intensity consensus, and still calls for steady
strengthening during the next several days, followed by weakening by
the end of the forecast period. If Leslie moves as far east as
shown in the NHC track forecast, it would likely become a post-
tropical low by day 5, as shown explicitly in the forecast. However,
until confidence in the track increases, I can't rule out that
Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 31.3N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 29.9N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.5N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 28.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 28.9N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 32.0N 31.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 33.5N 22.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 33.5N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Buenas. ¿No hay seguimiento de Michael?
Perdón por la pregunta, pero es que no lo veo y es que nos teneis muy bien acostumbrados.
Enviado desde mi Oneplus 5t
Brutal la salida determinista de GFS trayendo a Leslie a Andalucía el domingo.
Seguramente una opción casi imposible pero ahí queda.
Totalmente, al menos para guardar...
(http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018101118/63-102SP.GIF?11-18)
Lo que estáis comentando, esa salida presuntamente 'loca' de GFS 18 UTC resulta que la confirman GFS 00 UT y IFS 00 UTC. Aquí el europeo:
(http://www.cazatormentas.com/wp-content/uploads/leslie-andalucia-huracan-presion.gif)
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018
Leslie has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The eye is currently not apparent in conventional satellite imagery,
although recent microwave overpasses indicate at least a partial
eyewall is present under the overcast. Satellite intensity
estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity is held at
80 kt.
The initial motion is now 065/24. The guidance is in good
agreement that this general motion should continue for 24 h or so.
After that, there is a major model divergence. The GFS, ECMWF, and
the various consensus models now show a continued east-northeast
motion until landfall in Portugal or Spain. On the other hand, the
UKMET, UK ensemble mean, and Canadian models show a turn toward the
south and then back to the west. Since the previous forecast showed
a southward and westward turn, the new forecast track will also
follow this scenario. However, it is shifted well to the east of
the previous track due to the forecasts of the other models.
Needless to say, the latter portion of the track forecast is low
confidence.
Leslie should gradually weaken as it approaches Madeira Island
during the next 24-36 h. After that, the intensity forecast is
dependent on what track the cyclone takes. If it follows the
GFS/ECMWF scenario, the system would likely make landfall on the
Iberian peninsula and quickly dissipate. If it follows the UKMET
scenario, a combination of shear, cool water, and dry air
entrainment should cause weakening. Since the track forecast is
closer to the UKMET scenario, the intensity forecast follows the
previous forecast in having Leslie decay to a post-tropical low by
72 h. However, this is also a low confidence forecast due to the
uncertainties in the track forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 31.9N 31.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 33.1N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 34.2N 20.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 34.6N 15.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 34.0N 13.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 32.0N 12.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z 30.0N 13.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z 28.0N 18.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
Recién actualizado el boletín de discusión sobre LESLIE...
INCERTIDUMBRE máxima una vez más...
Recién actualizado el boletín de discusión sobre LESLIE...
INCERTIDUMBRE máxima una vez más...
Que elementos, no quieren hablar mucho de la posibilidad de impacto contra la peninsula, y se aferran a UKMO y GEM... ::)
Iñaki Ramos Gorospe
@Gorospe1992
El modelo de alta resolución Harmonie ya llega hasta el amanecer del Domingo, y ve a "Leslie" llegando al golfo de Cadiz. Parece cada vez más probable que llegue a la península ibérica. @AEMET_Esp
Todo lo imposible(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpTU8CcXgAAH7S7.jpg)
@josestormchaser
Part 1:
#Mapas #metereologicos #antologicos
- #Leslie entrando por #cadiz atravesando el sur de #andalucia y saliendo al #mediterraneo aún vivo y regenerandose en DP (#depresiontropical) o aún TP (#tormentatropical)
#Almeria #baleares #severeweather @AEMET_Esp
@ecazatormentas
Recién actualizado el boletín de discusión sobre LESLIE...
INCERTIDUMBRE máxima una vez más...
Que elementos, no quieren hablar mucho de la posibilidad de impacto contra la peninsula, y se aferran a UKMO y GEM... ::)
Ya me he dado cuenta ;D ;D ;D Cuando menos, yo en su lugar, hubiera quitado el giro de 180º del mapa de cono de incertidumbre...
:-X :-X :-X
(https://foro.tiempo.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=149436.0;attach=806260930;image)
En la información meteorológica de la uno Albert Barniol se fía del CNH y muestra en el mapa de símbolos para el domingo la entrada de Leslie por el golfo de Cádiz pero en el mapa con frentes muestran la última salida del europeo que lo manda a Portugal, también habla de la altísimo incertidumbre pero me da la impresión de que apuestan por el CNH no se si por curarse en salud o por que es la opción más factible... Mañana iremos saliendo de dudas
Bueno yo aun no aseguraría nada, hasta mañana al medio día no estará suficientemente claro donde impactará Leslie, el asunto es que mirando satélites en las últimas pasadas va virando hacia al este y no tanto noreste, si la vaguada con el frente profundiza un poco más al sur....😁😁Seguiremos vigilando..
Puede tocar tierra como huracan ::) A este paso va al Mediterraneo como depresión tropical
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181013/b8b46de1891df589c7f3f66a39c9ba11.jpg
Pd: Alguien me explica que diferencia hay entre ek circulo con H en negro y el circula con H en blanco. Gracias.
Modelo americano meso escalar HWRF, que resuelve muy bien situaciones a corto plazo, prevé impacto en #Lisboa, con #Leslie conservando una estructura muy decente.
La figura muestra la superposición de dos mapas: por un lado, presión en superficie y vientos a 10 m. Por otro, simulación de nubosidad IR. Lo que se desprende de esta superposición de imágenes es que Leslie podría llegar a Lisboa conservando un núcleo bastante bien estructurado, a pesar de sufrir los efectos de la cizalladura, con la convección desplazada al N de su centro, pero cerca de este. Además, el radio de vientos seguiría muy concentrado, lo que lleva a pensar que la transición extratropical podría no estar completada en ese momento...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpX-8HFWsAAVK54.jpg)
La misma conclusión se desprende de los cortes verticales, conservando núcleo cálido y vientos intensos cerca de su centro, así como alta humedad.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpX_QhVXUAIuIyA.jpg)
AEMET(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpXg42kX4AAZqWd.jpg)
@AEMET_Esp
Cuando #Leslie toque tierra posiblemente ya no sea un #huracán, sino un potente ciclón post-tropical. Sus principales efectos en España serán:
➡️Rachas de Viento muy fuertes (superiores a 80 Km/h)
➡️Lluvias intensas (localmente hasta más de 75 l/m2 en 24 horas)
Leslie va camino de la Península Ibérica: precedentes históricos (http://www.cazatormentas.com/leslie-peninsula-iberica-huracan-precedentes/)
(http://www.cazatormentas.com/wp-content/uploads/precedente-leslie-02.jpg)
Rubén del Campo(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpX8s-HWkAAmoyR.jpg)
@Rub_dc
Pocas veces se ve un mapa previsto con frentes como este de @AEMET_Esp: se va Ex #Leslie por el Mediterráneo, mientras que otra depresión post-tropical, Ex #Michael, llega por el Atlántico a la Península. #LoQueNosQuedaPorVer
SINOBAS(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpYL4RwW0AAQtp0.jpg)
@AEMET_SINOBAS
En respuesta a @AEMET_Esp @NHC_Atlantic
El cono de probabilidad de ubicación del centro del #Leslie según la pasada de las 00UTC @ECMWF
Las últimas salidas mandan a Leslie por el Cabo de San Vicente, incertidumbre hasta última hora a ver dónde hará Diana...
Enviado desde mi SM-J710F mediante Tapatalk
El hecho de que pongan a toda Andalucía con avisos por tormentas, es porque quizás no se fían de esa solución final de impacto en Lisboa...
Dios, cada salida es distinta los modelos no saben a ciencia cierta donde entrará Leslie, aunque yo pienso de que mi zona no habrá nada, pero claro puede cambiar la situación, así que hacen bien en poner el aviso
Personalmente no creo que decir ahora mismo con seguridad que no va haber nada sea lo correcto, porque ni los modelos se aclaran, y no porque fallen, si no porque Leslie los tiene locos sin saber por donde tira del todo, aun pasando por Lisboa en Andalucía nos va a afectar de alguna u otra forma, ya sea con viento o algo de lluvia, no creo que los avisos de Aemet los pongan para curarse en salud.Dios, cada salida es distinta los modelos no saben a ciencia cierta donde entrará Leslie, aunque yo pienso de que mi zona no habrá nada, pero claro puede cambiar la situación, así que hacen bien en poner el aviso
Y no va a haber nada, es sólo que se curan en salud por si las moscas. Pero vamos que está más claro que el agua que se va para Lisboa y el norte.
Por Andalucía no lo notaremos por lo que se ve, una lastimaDecepcionante. Siempre pasa igual...
Hola a todos.... se empeza ya a notar algo el lisboa: http://www.portugal-live.net/UK/webcams.html
Hola a todos.... se empeza ya a notar algo el lisboa: http://www.portugal-live.net/UK/webcams.html
¿Como puedo ver la evolucion ahí? No entiendo la pagina, ni siquiera si es gratis o no xDDDD
ufff se ve mal ya el tiempo alli eh?... pues al final por lisboa pero dicen que no se sae aun el rumbo que tomara una vez entre...
Por Andalucía no lo notaremos por lo que se ve, una lastimaDecepcionante. Siempre pasa igual...
Enviado desde mi Oneplus 5t
tan lejos esta pasando de andalucia? tanto cambia la trayectoria a pocas horas de tocar tierra? no entiendo... si pasaba cerca de cadiz ahora pasa tan lejos? jajjaj que cosas mas raras... de hecho esta cadiz ahora mismo en alerta amarilla para mañana domingo por tormentas... no entiendo nada
Vaya envion le ha metido el chorro a Lesli, como se descuide ni toca la peninsula... :-X
Lo de Leslie al final no ha sido como se preveía, ya era raro que entrase por el golfo de Cádiz un Huracán si ni siquiera entran borrascas desde hace años, bueno esperemo que por donde pase no haya daños graves.
Así que, como dice Croto, si al final "no pasa nada" por aquí, mejor, ¿no?
hazme caso no lo fliparias tanto si en ese momento te cae algo encima de tu casa... no entiendo... como se puede flipar con un fenomeno tan peligroso como este... hay cosas que no entiendo a mi me encantan las tormentas,las lluvias pero algo ya como un huracan entrando por tu ciudad no entiendo como se puede flipar con algo asi la verdad,destrozos y perdidas de dinero publico en arreglar los destrozos un poco de coherencia xD que nos guste alomejor los climas extremos no significa que nos guste que pasen estas cosas.Así que, como dice Croto, si al final "no pasa nada" por aquí, mejor, ¿no?
Pues no se yo que decirte. Había una salida que la metia por el golfo de Cadiz y la hacía pasar justo por encima de Sevilla. Como lo hubiese flipado. Al final solo caerá un chaparrón como el jueves, bueno, eso si no se deshace antes...
Enviado desde mi Oneplus 5t
hazme caso no lo fliparias tanto si en ese momento te cae algo encima de tu casa... no entiendo... como se puede flipar con un fenomeno tan peligroso como este... hay cosas que no entiendo a mi me encantan las tormentas,las lluvias pero algo ya como un huracan entrando por tu ciudad no entiendo como se puede flipar con algo asi la verdad
Lo de Leslie al final no ha sido como se preveía, ya era raro que entrase por el golfo de Cádiz un Huracán si ni siquiera entran borrascas desde hace años, bueno esperemo que por donde pase no haya daños graves.
a ver... mejor no? osease... yo prefiero que entre no entrara si quiera a la peninsula...daños materiales,daños humanos... costo de dinero en arreglos porfavor... estos desastres naturales mejor dejarlos apartaditos gracias a dios que no a entrado por cadiz desgracia para los que les a entrado. Eso si no entiendo lo que dices de cadiz cuando el año pasado emma dejo destrozos significativos...
Qué buenos vídeos Jose... me encantan tus timelapses malagueños.
Leslie en Wunderground!! ;D. El Dr. Jeff Masters le dedica un articulo que creo merece la pena leer.
LINK: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Rain-Spain-Falls-Mainly-Froma-Hurricane