BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS
MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY
METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN
GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS
ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE
SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM CDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER AVILA