Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Mayo 20, 2012, 01:10:37 am
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Bueno, pues ya tenemos a ALBERTO, en un arranque prematuro de la temporada :o :o :o :o :o :o
000
WTNT41 KNHC 192042
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...AND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM AN AIRMASS
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 33N. BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 1530 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
ALBERTO IS SITUATED IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A MARKEDLY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON RADAR...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/03. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...AS
ALBERTO IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A BROAD
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N/72W. AS THAT LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE STEERING FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF ALBERTO AND THE
COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF
HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST ALBERTO WILL MOVE...AND HOW SHARP THE TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS OF VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.
ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Este sistema tiene, lo que le faltó al 92L .............. PERSISTENCIA de la convección. Sin embargo, sigo viendo muchos "peros" a aquel caso que se quedó sin nombrar...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7405/2012AL01_1KMSRVIS_201205192245_bxf6.GIF)
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Ha subido su fuerza a 60 mph con una presión de 995 mb
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Hoy ALBERTO está ya decayendo, debido a la ingesta de aire seco, aumento de la cizalladura y disminución de la SST al salirse fuera de la Corriente del Golfo...
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ALBERTO se sigue resistiendo a su desaparición, probablemente porque aunque no está sobre aguas demasiado cálidas y el aire seco sigue tomando su papel..., la cizalladura sigue estando contenida, y esto permite que la convección permanezca adherida al centro del ciclón, suministrándole energía para sobrevivir en forma de calor latente...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3774/2012AL01_1KMSRVIS_201205211245_gsf6.GIF)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 210841
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012
DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH BROKEN RAINBANDS CONTINUING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BE WEAKER. THE TROPICAL STORM
IS QUITE COMPACT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING NO MORE
THAN 150 N MI ACROSS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER THE
GULF STREAM...WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
WARM...VERY DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEREFORE...KEEPS ALBERTO AT THE SAME
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...ALBERTO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS
AND BEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...NEARLY COMPLETING THE ANTICIPATED
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. AN EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TODAY AS AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...TAKING THE COMPACT
TROPICAL STORM PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE...OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COASTLINE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 30.4N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 30.6N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 31.8N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 33.5N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 35.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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La cizalladura comienza a jugar su papel en ALBERTO... desplazando la convección hacia el NE, y dejando desnudo al LLCC...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3745/2012AL01_1KMSRVIS_201205212015_hmk8.GIF)
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El CNH ha emitido su último aviso sobre ALBERTO, ya que lo dan por extratropicalizado, resultado de una SST en valores fríos y la fuerte cizalladura.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 221438
TCDAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON ALBERTO.
THE CYCLONE NOW LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
THE REMNANT LOW OF ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR 045/15. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
IDENTITY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 33.1N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 34.6N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 36.8N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Alberto captado por el satélite Terra de la NASA, el 19 de mayo. Imagen original más la misma a la que he modificado los niveles para poder observar con mejor detalle su estructura tan poderosa...
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-VUbqrUIP5jM/T7vXuFpQA0I/AAAAAAAABU4/kjQZhEqJyGA/s950/alberto-1.jpg)
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-axI3zZtIWBM/T7vXt0spFVI/AAAAAAAABU0/C30jh9ES09U/s950/alberto-2.jpg)
http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/77000/77990/alberto_tmo_2012140_lrg.jpg (http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/77000/77990/alberto_tmo_2012140_lrg.jpg)
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Dos imágenes maravillosas 8)
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Lo grabaron ayer unos 'cachondos'.... creo que ni sabían lo que grababan mientras filmaban diversas tomas sobre la llegada de Alberto a su ciudad:
A Real Storm Front Approaches (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nV2Sjv4Pxew#)
Tropical Storm Alberto approaches the Outer Banks - Part XV (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKfs6eEVB2c#)
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Jose, me temo que esos vídeos no corresponden a Alberto, sino a una banda nubosa con mucha convección que ha dado lugar al INVEST94L. En realidad no sé si se trata de un frente frío que ha llegado desde el oeste... Pero podemos descartar a ALBERTO como causante :P
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Fíjate, en Miami marcaron un récord de lluvia para un día :o :o :o :o
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/582273_10150846013427613_657777612_9977865_1068829345_n.jpg)