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Autor Tema: Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012  (Leído 948 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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Bueno, pues ya tenemos a ALBERTO, en un arranque prematuro de la temporada :o :o :o :o :o :o

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 192042
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS
...AND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM AN AIRMASS
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 33N.  BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 1530 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
ALBERTO IS SITUATED IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A MARKEDLY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  GIVEN THIS...ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM.  ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON RADAR...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/03. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...AS
ALBERTO IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A BROAD
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N/72W. AS THAT LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE STEERING FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF ALBERTO AND THE
COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF
HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST ALBERTO WILL MOVE...AND HOW SHARP THE TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS OF VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.

ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003
THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS
.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 32.2N  77.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 31.9N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 31.7N  78.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 31.9N  78.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 32.7N  78.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 34.5N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 37.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Este sistema tiene, lo que le faltó al 92L .............. PERSISTENCIA de la convección. Sin embargo, sigo viendo muchos "peros" a aquel caso que se quedó sin nombrar...


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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #1 en: Mayo 20, 2012, 01:17:45 am »
Ha subido su fuerza a 60 mph con una presión de 995 mb

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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #2 en: Mayo 21, 2012, 01:01:51 am »
Hoy ALBERTO está ya decayendo, debido a la ingesta de aire seco, aumento de la cizalladura y disminución de la SST al salirse fuera de la Corriente del Golfo...

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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #3 en: Mayo 21, 2012, 15:04:45 pm »
ALBERTO se sigue resistiendo a su desaparición, probablemente porque aunque no está sobre aguas demasiado cálidas y el aire seco sigue tomando su papel..., la cizalladura sigue estando contenida, y esto permite que la convección permanezca adherida al centro del ciclón, suministrándole energía para sobrevivir en forma de calor latente...



Citar
000
WTNT41 KNHC 210841
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO AGAIN THIS
MORNING WITH BROKEN RAINBANDS CONTINUING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BE WEAKER. THE TROPICAL STORM
IS QUITE COMPACT
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING NO MORE
THAN 150 N MI ACROSS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER THE
GULF STREAM...WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
WARM...VERY DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEREFORE...KEEPS ALBERTO AT THE SAME
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...ALBERTO
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS
AND BEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...NEARLY COMPLETING THE ANTICIPATED
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. AN EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TODAY AS AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...TAKING THE COMPACT
TROPICAL STORM PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE...OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COASTLINE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 30.4N  79.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 30.6N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 31.8N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 33.5N  74.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 35.5N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #4 en: Mayo 21, 2012, 22:46:12 pm »
La cizalladura comienza a jugar su papel en ALBERTO... desplazando la convección hacia el NE, y dejando desnudo al LLCC...


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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #5 en: Mayo 22, 2012, 19:11:39 pm »
El CNH ha emitido su último aviso sobre ALBERTO, ya que lo dan por extratropicalizado, resultado de una SST en valores fríos y la fuerte cizalladura.

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 221438
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON ALBERTO.
THE CYCLONE NOW LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
.  THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. 

THE REMNANT LOW OF ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR 045/15.  A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
IDENTITY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 33.1N  74.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  23/0000Z 34.6N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z 36.8N  69.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #6 en: Mayo 22, 2012, 20:17:14 pm »
Alberto captado por el satélite Terra de la NASA, el 19 de mayo. Imagen original más la misma a la que he modificado los niveles para poder observar con mejor detalle su estructura tan poderosa...





http://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/77000/77990/alberto_tmo_2012140_lrg.jpg
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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #7 en: Mayo 22, 2012, 20:53:24 pm »
Dos imágenes maravillosas 8)

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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #8 en: Mayo 23, 2012, 23:05:54 pm »
Lo grabaron ayer unos 'cachondos'.... creo que ni sabían lo que grababan mientras filmaban diversas tomas sobre la llegada de Alberto a su ciudad:



"Escápate de tu tiempo
al tiempo que no transcurre.
Pon tu mirada por
encima de tu yo, tu día, tu orden...
Yo-Día-Orden-Caos"

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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #9 en: Mayo 24, 2012, 03:14:40 am »
Jose, me temo que esos vídeos no corresponden a Alberto, sino a una banda nubosa con mucha convección que ha dado lugar al INVEST94L. En realidad no sé si se trata de un frente frío que ha llegado desde el oeste... Pero podemos descartar a ALBERTO como causante :P

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Re:Tormenta Tropical ALBERTO 01L, Atlántico Oeste, 19 mayo 2012
« Respuesta #10 en: Mayo 24, 2012, 03:16:08 am »
Fíjate, en Miami marcaron un récord de lluvia para un día :o :o :o :o


 



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