Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Junio 07, 2018, 16:22:02 pm
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ALETTA, previsiblemente se convertirá en huracán... Esta temporada, a cambio de la atlántica, promete ser activa en esta cuenca.
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Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022018
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 07 2018
The cloud pattern has become a little better organized and the
low-level center appears to be more embedded within the deep
convection than several hours ago. Although the outflow is fair,
there are still shear at some level affecting the cyclone by
observing the motion of the cirrus clouds. T-numbers from all
agencies including the UW-CIMSS objective values have increased to
3.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial intensity has been increased
to 55 kt.
Guidance suggests some modest intensification, although there is a
difference between the GFS-based SHIPS model and the ECMWF-based
one. The latter is less aggressive and barely forecast Aletta
to become a hurricane. The NHC follows the intensity consensus and
the FSU super-ensemble, and calls for Aletta to become a hurricane
within the next 12 to 24 hours. After 3 days, the environment
becomes unfavorable and a gradual weakening should then begin.
Aletta is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 6 kt
around the periphery of a subtropical ridge over Mexico. This
pattern should continue to steer the cyclone on a general
westward course for a day or two, and then the cyclone sould turn to
the west-northwest or northwest toward a weakness of the ridge. The
NHC forecast is very close to the FSU super-ensemble, and is in the
middle of the wide guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north
and the ECMWF to the south.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 14.9N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.3N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.7N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 17.0N 114.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Ciclón ALETTA en el Pacífico Noreste: de tempestad a violento huracán en 24 horas. Aunque la temporada de huracanes en el Pacífico Noreste comenzó el pasado 15 de mayo, todavía no se había formado ningún ciclón tropical con la intensidad suficiente para ser nombrado. Aletta es el primero, y lo ha hecho con una tremenda exhibición de potencia. Algo que se está convirtiendo en habitual en esta cuenca oceánica en los últimos años.
http://www.cazatormentas.com/ciclon-aletta-en-el-pacifico-noreste-de-tempestad-a-violento-huracan-en-24-horas/
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La animación de imágenes VIS del ojo, ayer, es increíble...
https://www.facebook.com/NOAASatellites/videos/2148836088489990/
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Copernicus EU
@CopernicusEU
#Sentinel3 Ocan & Land Colour Instrument has captured the first hurricane of the season, #HurricaneAletta, off the coast of Mexico. It has been classified as Cat. 4 but is quickly weakening and does not threaten land.
Nice eye though!
Processing by @tonyveco
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