En la última imagen del satélite que ofrece la web del NRL todavía no se ve tan mal a ALMA, pues se seguire pareciando claramente la circulación ciclónica y potentes bandas convectivas, aunque el LLCC está muy elongado y abierto, fruto del rozamiento contra las montañas centroamericanas. Me da la impresión de que el desastre humanitario está asegurado (ya iremos viendo las noticias en TV). Por otro lado, interesante discusión en el National Hurricane Center, pues
ha sido el primer ciclón tropical de la temporada del Pacífico Este, y ya se está produciendo las primeras sorpresas:
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300244
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
THE CENTER OF ALMA HAS CONTINUED INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 350/8
SINCE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA ABOUT EIGHT
HOURS AGO. THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN THE
LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES LEADING UP TO SYNOPTIC TIME...AND WE HAVE
SUBSEQUENTLY FOLLOWED THE CENTER INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS BY TRACKING
A SMALL ROTATING BALL OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON VERY LITTLE DATA BUT IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 40 KT.
THE TRACK OF ALMA AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BEND TO THE LEFT OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
AND GULF OF MEXICO. FOLLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CALLS FOR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER TO PERHAPS CLIP THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEFORE MOVING OVER
BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. DESPITE THAT POSSIBLE SHORT TIME OVER
WATER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF
SPENDING THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
ALMA SHOULD NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SOMETIME
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY LAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR
ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ALMA IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM...IN THE AVAILABLE RECORDS...TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IT ALSO
MADE LANDFALL FARTHER EAST THAN ANY PREVIOUS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WAS THE FIRST TO DO SO ON THE PACIFIC COAST
OF NICARAGUA.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 13.4N 87.2W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 30/1200Z 14.9N 87.7W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/0000Z 16.6N 88.7W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 31/1200Z 17.8N 90.1W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE
Traduzco el texto en naranja: "
ALMA es la primera tormenta tropical, en los registros disponibles, en llegar a tierra sobre las costas pacíficas de Centroamérica. Éste también llegó a tierra bastante más al este que cualquier ciclón tropical previo en el Pacífico Este... Y entonces fue el primero en hacerlo sobre las costas pacíficas de Nicaragua".
Ha sido un ciclón un tanto extraño, por el lugar donde se ha formado, y el rumbo norte que ha seguido. Si no llega a ser por la situación sinóptica que domina el Caribe - Golfo de México, la tormenta huiera seguido con este rumbo hasta haberse colado en el Golfo de México, y a saber qué hubiera pasado bajo un entorno de cizalladura favorable...