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Autor Tema: Huracán SHARY 20L, categoría 1 - Atlántico Oeste - 2010/10  (Leído 1165 veces)

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Huracán SHARY 20L, categoría 1 - Atlántico Oeste - 2010/10
« en: Octubre 29, 2010, 09:13:01 am »
Pues al final ha sido el INVEST 92L el que se ha llevado el gato al agua con el nombre, recibiendo el de SHARY :D1

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 290254
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS.  THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC.  BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  SINCE THERE IS
ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20.  IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  FOR NOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0300Z 27.3N  63.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 29.6N  65.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 32.8N  63.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 35.5N  60.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 39.3N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 43.5N  45.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
« Última modificación: Octubre 30, 2010, 10:46:02 am por Gale »

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Re: Tormenta Tropical SHARY 20L - Atlántico Oeste - 2010/10
« Respuesta #1 en: Octubre 29, 2010, 09:13:48 am »
No obstante, la vida de este ciclón tropical parece que va a ser muy efímera... Adjunto otra imagen, en infrarrojo y falso RGB:

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Re: Tormenta Tropical SHARY 20L - Atlántico Oeste - 2010/10
« Respuesta #2 en: Octubre 30, 2010, 10:43:06 am »
Shary  ya es huracán categoria 1.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 300836
TCDAT5
HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

SHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM
OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE
37-GHZ CHANNEL.  WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER
...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL.
THE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT.
NORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH
DISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS. IT IS
HARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS
THE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT.
THIS IS A GOOD CASE
OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE
THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE.

THE TRMM PASSES AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS ACCELERATED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW SPEEDING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHARY IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ABSORBING THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION...AND THE
NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
MOTION AND THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. SHARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOON DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN
76F. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 33.6N  59.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 35.7N  54.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 38.5N  48.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Soy de Sagrajas. Situado en la zona Vegas Bajas, a unos 12 kilometros de Badajoz.

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Re: Huracán SHARY 20L, categoría 1 - Atlántico Oeste - 2010/10
« Respuesta #3 en: Octubre 30, 2010, 10:50:55 am »
Interesantísimo, Sagrajeño :o :o :o Me he quedado a cuadros cuando he actualizado la página del CNH y subido de rango a SHARY :-X :-X :-X Pero lo más gracioso, es que se encuentra delante de una vaguada, y se supone que el ambiente no es nada bueno para que se haya intensificado. Los mecanismos que rigen a algunos ciclones tropicales es todo un misterio... 8)


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Re: Huracán SHARY 20L, categoría 1 - Atlántico Oeste - 2010/10
« Respuesta #4 en: Octubre 30, 2010, 10:59:57 am »
Adjunto mapa isobárico con el attach para ver la posición de SHARY delante de un frente frío, o casi embebiéndose en él :-X


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Re: Huracán SHARY 20L, categoría 1 - Atlántico Oeste - 2010/10
« Respuesta #5 en: Octubre 30, 2010, 11:05:55 am »
Este es su aspecto actual



Ademas la trayectoria que plantea los modelos Gfs y Gfdl son bastante interesante.



Soy de Sagrajas. Situado en la zona Vegas Bajas, a unos 12 kilometros de Badajoz.

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Re: Huracán SHARY 20L, categoría 1 - Atlántico Oeste - 2010/10
« Respuesta #6 en: Octubre 30, 2010, 11:25:56 am »
Adjunto una imagen en que es posible ver la posición de SHARY respecto del frente frío en el que casi está embebido :-X Imagen infrarroja de las 6 UTC.

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Re: Huracán SHARY 20L, categoría 1 - Atlántico Oeste - 2010/10
« Respuesta #7 en: Octubre 30, 2010, 15:22:00 pm »
Preciosa vista de SHARY, e increíble dónde persiste como huracán.

Como imagen adjunta, la de microondas, en donde se le observa perfectamente el ojo.

 



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