Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Fox Cane en Junio 17, 2013, 17:18:37 pm
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El Invest 93L es ahora la Depresión Tropical 2L
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932013_al022013.ren
FSTDA
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040
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201306171436
NONE
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(http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/4839/q4ea.jpg)
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 171509
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FOR
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY
IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY AS
INDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF TRACKS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 16.2N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.9N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 19/1200Z 19.3N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 20/1200Z 19.7N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Curioso, Andrea me recordó a Arlene (2005) y ésta DT a Bret (2005).
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(http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/2193/xbn.gif)
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Hora local de Caracas 11:20am
La DT 02L en aguas del Caribe Occidental muy próximo a las costas del Norte de Honduras.
No hay alertas ni avisos levantados
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 87.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
En el radar de Bélice se aprecia claramente el vórtice:
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/c_zps6488b10e.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/c_zps6488b10e.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zps021f8cd4.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zps021f8cd4.gif.html)
Visible
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zps9afcb825.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zps9afcb825.gif.html)
Dada la proximidad a tierra y la trayectoria es dificil alcance la categoría de Tormenta Tropical, veremos
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Creo que sí logrará el estatus de TT en la Bahía de Campeche. Le doy un 70% :P
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Por cierto, hasta el momento GFS: 2 - ECMWF: 0 ;D
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Gracias por el seguimiento, chicos! :D :D :D :D
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Wow, parecia que este sistema no iba a dar mucho de que hablar y de repente aparece como depresion tropical. Pero, tal como dice Eric, no creo que llegue a TT por la direccion que va acoger. Mucha tierra y poca agua.
A ver si a partir de estos dias que el tiempo que tengo va siendo mayor para ponerme al dia de esta temporada de huracanes y su seguimiento ;)
Enviado desde mi GT-S6500D usando Tapatalk 2
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Hora local de Caracas 9pm
La DT02L entrando a las costas de Belice:
Lo más reciente del ATCF del CNH
AL, 02, 2013061800, , BEST, 0, 165N, 886W, 30, 1007, TD,
Infrarrojo
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/c_zpsc44ebad8.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/c_zpsc44ebad8.gif.html)
Radar de Belice
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/d_zps4b04a640.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/d_zps4b04a640.gif.html)
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Actualmente se encuentra ya en el interior de Guatemala. Y las ultimas previsiones apuntan que tocaria muy poco las aguas del Mar Caribe. Me atreveria incluso a decir que no las tocara ;D
Sus ultimos datos son vientos de 25 kt y una presion minima de 1009 mb ;)
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Hora local de Caracas 4:45pm
LA DT02L saliendo al Golfo de México Sur, sobre la Bahía de Campeche. Veremos como le va en este sector aunque siempre permanecerá muy cerca a tierra:
4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 18
Location: 18.3°N 91.9°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/b_zps007da6d6.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/b_zps007da6d6.jpg.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/a_zps253ab27f.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/a_zps253ab27f.gif.html)
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Me mantengo en mi pronóstico de hace dos días de un 70% de probabilidades de que alcance el estatus de TT. :D1
Las SST de 29°C, la ralentización de su desplazamiento, la disminución de la cizalladura y un buen flujo de salida ayudarán a ello.
(http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/3180/rk3n.gif)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 190838
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW
HOURS AGO...THAT CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE DEPRESSION...SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION
IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 300/8. A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
TEXAS SHOULD INDUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DECELERATION ALONG WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL
IN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY.
BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF
THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 19.3N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.4N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 19.3N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0600Z 19.2N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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(http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/8016/z6t.jpg)
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Me sigue recordando a Bret 2005
(http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/6308/20j.gif)
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Buena convección sobre su centro. Esto marcha.
(http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/3649/mutx.jpg)
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS
MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY
METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN
GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS
ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES
AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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A mi me parece una castaña... voy a perder mi apuesta :P
Da la impresión de que algo de aire seco ha entrado en su (pobre) circulación desde en cuadrante NW
(http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/4295/ubx3.jpg)
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Pues no, estaba en lo cierto, la Bahía de Campeche suele obrar milagros con estos sistemas tan pequeños.
TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE
SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
SUMMARY OF 145 PM CDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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(http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/9526/v636.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 4:20pm
1:45 PM CDT Wed Jun 19
Location: 19.6°N 95.1°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/vis-animated_zps978388c1.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/vis-animated_zps978388c1.gif.html)
Aún el portal del CNH no ha actualizado los avisos y alertas respectivos :?
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Hora local de Caracas 10pm
RESUMEN DE LAS 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMACION
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LOCALIZACION...19.6 NORTE 95.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 55 MI...85 KM AL ESTE-NORESTE DE VERACRUZ
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 270 GRADOS A 6 MPH...9 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARES...29.68 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
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CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TUXPAN
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO HASTA TUXPAN MEXICO
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/Image_000012_zps6d6a17b0.jpg) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/Image_000012_zps6d6a17b0.jpg.html)
Se espera que Barry toque tierra al Norte del Puerto de Veracruz durante la madrugada o primeras horas de la mañana del jueves, hora de México.
Infrarrojo
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/1_zps31a72d4f.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/1_zps31a72d4f.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 9:40am
Barry ingresando a tierra por el estado de Veracruz, México:
RESUMEN DE LAS 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
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LOCALIZACION...19.6 NORTE 96.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 30 MI...45 KM AL NORTE DE VERACRUZ
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE O 270 GRADOS A 3 MPH...5 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1004 MILIBARES...29.65 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO HASTA TUXPAN MEXICO
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/2_zpsc3d6471a.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/2_zpsc3d6471a.gif.html)
(http://i1363.photobucket.com/albums/r711/eyestorm_eric4/3_zpsbd55408e.gif) (http://s1363.photobucket.com/user/eyestorm_eric4/media/3_zpsbd55408e.gif.html)
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Si que ha tardado en tocar tierra, se ha ralentizado mucho no?
En cualquier caso no se ha intensificado demasiado, me alegro por los mexicanos.