000
WTPZ33 KNHC 231448
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 103.8W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240844
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SEVERAL SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL
STORM COSME. IN FACT...ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASSES AT
0404Z AND 0450Z...RESPECTIVELY...INDICATED SEVERAL 34- TO 37-KT
WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO
REVEALED THAT COSME HAD MOVED MORE WESTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THAT THE CENTER AS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SMALL CDO-LIKE CONVECTIVE FEATURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09 KT. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KT AS INDICATED IN UW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSES
IS THE LIKELY REASON FOR THE RECENT WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND COSME IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF COSME
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 48
HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EXPECTED WEAKENING
AND VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. SINCE COSME IS ALREADY AT
LEAST 30 NMI TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW
ADVISORY TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...
AND BASICALLY LIES ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF TIGHTLY
PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE
OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN
HINDERING THE  DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...AS COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THE
CYCLONE WILL ENTER A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 72 HOURS.  DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THE
LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 90 NMI SHOULD KEEP
INTENSIFICATION SLOWER THAN THE AVERAGE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER
DAY. BY 72 HOURS...COSME WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND SHIFOR INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 12.8N 105.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 15.2N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 16.2N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 18.5N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 19.7N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 20.0N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF COSME BEGAN JUST
AFTER 0600 UTC AND HAS PERSISTED SINCE THAT TIME. SOME NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...YET TAFB AND SAB BOTH PROVIDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KT. THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS EVEN HIGHER AT 50 KT.
EITHER WAY...COSME IS STRENGTHENING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING SET AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME EASIER TO LOCATE BASED ON A 1241
UTC SSMIS OVERPASS AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BLOW-UP
OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO JUMP
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...BUT SMOOTHING THE TRACK YIELDS A 12-HOUR
MOTION OF 315/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH WILL
TEND TO STEER COSME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
MODELS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
AROUND COSME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS PERIOD
ALSO HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER
WATER WARMER THAN 26C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN
INCREASED DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST
SHOWN BY THE LGEM. WEAKENING SHOULD STILL BEGIN BY 72 HOURS...WITH
THE CYCLONE LIKELY DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.0N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.7N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 20.0N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG