000
WTNT42 KNHC 201439
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

OBSERVATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FROM ABOUT 3 HOURS AGO...
QUIKSCAT DATA...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL HAS NOT
CHANGED IN INTENSITY AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE AS A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION
MOVES OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BERYL HAS
REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND
BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
PASSING VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IT IS COMMON IN THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 38.8N  72.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 39.8N  72.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 41.7N  69.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 43.5N  65.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     22/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA