Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eyestorm_Eric en Mayo 26, 2012, 05:05:21 am
-
Hora local de Caracas 10:30pm
Se forma la TST Beryl al Este de las costas de Las Carolinas, EEUU:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/2-183.jpg)
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Se espera que Beryl se desplaze al OSO gradualmente para impactar dentro de las 36-48h la costa Este de los EEUU entre la Florida y Carolina del Sur y posteriormente un drástico movimiento al NE nuevamente. Veremos
-
Subtropical ! gracias, Eric ! 8)
-
Ha comenzado la transición a tropical. :P
(http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/9959/goes19312012147uzkc8h.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas 11pm
Diagrama de fase de Beryl sugiere que el nucleo se torna más cálido, por lo que es altamente probable la transición a sistema totalmente tropical:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000011-8.jpg)
Sin embargo la infrarroja a la hora muestra poca convección alrededor del centro de la tormenta:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/3-119.jpg)
El CHN sugiere que concretará la transición mañana domingo, antes de tocar tierra en la Costa Este de los EEUU
INIT 27/0300Z 30.8N 77.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 30.4N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 30.2N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL
36H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
-
Sí, no ha completado la transición, pero presenta un buen aspecto a pesar de todo.
(http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_ir_loop.gif)
-
Primeros visibles, es clavadito a la tormenta subtropical Andrea de 2007.
(http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/9959/goes19312012147uzkc8h.jpg)
Andrea, mayo de 2007:
(http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2007/may9.jpg)
-
Último visible, presenta un aspecto más "tropicalizado" gracias a la corriente del Golfo.
(http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/697/201205271710goes13xvis1.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas 2:15pm
Beryl consolida transición y evoluciona a TT
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
Visible
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000017-1.jpg)
Vientos al Oeste suministrados por el dispersometro
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000018-1.jpg)
-
Al final, BERYL se ha tornado completamente tropical 8) Pronto hará impacto entre el norte de Florida y Georgia...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 272044
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
BERYL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS
ALL AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CONTRACTED AND DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN STATUS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE FSU PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 55 KT AT 18Z BASED ON A T3.5
FROM TAFB AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST
AIRCRAFT MISSION. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY SHORTLY.
BERYL CONTINUES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL TONIGHT AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN
AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS THE
CENTER OF BERYL REMAINING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN
LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...BERYL COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONGER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER
LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE ONCE BERYL MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS. COOLER WATERS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...
AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 30.0N 80.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 30.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1800Z 30.2N 82.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 30.6N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1800Z 31.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 33.8N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1800Z 37.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7741/beryl_aqn1.jpg)
-
Hora local de Caracas 6:45pm
Radares Doppler:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000025.jpg)
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000026.jpg)
El centro de la tormenta entrará esta noche al Norte de la Florida
-
Hora local de Caracas 9:15pm
Animada de satélite visible construida por Luís Vargas @Lucho1408
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/x-3.gif)
El sistema se aproxima a las costas del Norte de la Florida, cerca de la CAT1
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
-
Hora local de Caracas 9:35pm
centro de Beryl entrando por la Costa NE de la Florida
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000027.jpg)
-
Da la impresión de que le ha faltado el pelo de un calvo para alcanzar la categoría de huracán... ::)
000
WTNT32 KNHC 280536
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
200 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012
...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
La previsión indica que, a su regreso al Atlántico, se convertirá en una borrasca extratropical...
-
Otra captura del radar tocando tierra....
(http://i46.tinypic.com/29njls7.png)
-
Maravillosa, Jose :o :o :o :o :o
-
Actualmente, y como es logico, Berly al adentrarse en tierra a perdido potencia ;)
Situacion Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 50 mph (80,47 km/h)
Rachas: 70 mph (112,65 km/h)
Presion: 997 mb
Movimiento: oeste a 8 mph (12,87 km/h)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
En el infrarojo se le ve muy desmejorado
(http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/3984/berly.jpg)
-
Las previsiones contemplan una transición extratropical cuando BERYL regrese al Atlántico, profundizándose mucho como borrasca extratropical ... Hasta 50 KT le mete el CNH :-x
-
Tropical Storm Beryl/Sunday Update!!! 100 People Already Pulled from the Rip Currents! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZTELI_sVHA#ws)
Tropical Storm Beryl Update 5-28-12 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKP_4kqfUdM#)
Jejejeje, una de relámpagos y truenos con un poco de agüita, jajaja, menuda cascada.
Tropical Storm Beryl (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_112kshivss#ws)
-
Tropical Storm Beryl/Sunday Update!!! 100 People Already Pulled from the Rip Currents! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZTELI_sVHA#ws)
Tropical Storm Beryl Update 5-28-12 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKP_4kqfUdM#)
Jejejeje, una de relámpagos y truenos con un poco de agüita, jajaja, menuda cascada.
Tropical Storm Beryl (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_112kshivss#ws)
Muy buena esa información! menudos aparatos tienen para vigilar esta gente!
y lo del último video está claro que lo que querían los dueños de la casa es hacerse una piscina y está todo preparado para que se llene! jjejej :D1 :D1 :D1 :D1
-
Beryl tocando tierra a las 2:35 pm, hora local del 27 de mayo 2012, captado por el satélite Aqua de la NASA. En ese momento, Beryl era una tormenta tropical con vientos de 65 mph.
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-RKo4OU__zwA/T8P0cq3YQ4I/AAAAAAAABaM/qLCIyInt-LY/s640/beryl_landfall_sat.jpg)
-
La secuencia de Beryl al acercarse a tierra desde el radar de precipitaciones:
(http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/beryl12/Beryl_27-28May12_JAXlong.gif)
Galería de imágenes de la Tormenta tocando tierra: http://www.news4jax.com/news/-/475880/14237756/-/tle9vez/-/index.html (http://www.news4jax.com/news/-/475880/14237756/-/tle9vez/-/index.html)
-
Situacion Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 30 mph (48.28 km/h)
Rachas: 40 mph (64.37 km/h)
Presion: 1005 mb
Movimiento: NE a 4 mph (6.44 km/h)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sigue siendo DT, como era de esperar tras adentrarse en tierra. Pero como vemos, ya a cambiado de dirección y se dirige hacia el oceano, para alli, volver a pasar a TT, como indican las previsiones :D
Asi la tenemos ahora mismo, encima de la peninsula de Florida ;)
(http://i46.tinypic.com/npmekl.jpg)
-
Es una tormenta preciosa, la verdad.
-
Asi tenemos a Beryl actualmente:
Situacion Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 35 mph (56 km/h)
Rachas: 45 mph (72 km/h)
Presion: 1001 mb
Movimiento: ENE a 13 mph (21 km/h)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Como se observa en los ultimos datos, Beryl a cogido fuerza al acercarse a la costa nuevamente y volvera al estatus de Tormenta Tropical en pocas horas ;) En la imagen del satelite, vemos como el centro esta muy descubierto y con poca conveccion, al contrario de su flanco SE-E y NE, donde la conveccion es muy pronunciada ;)
(http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/4681/beryl2y.jpg)
-
Así es :D Ha sido tocar la cálida corriente del Golfo, y coger un poco de fuerza :P Sin embargo, la transición extratropical es inminente...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 300839
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012
BERYL HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 H. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1001
MB...WHILE A COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT IN A BAND
OVER WATER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
INTENSIFICATION...THE CYCLONE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY DUE TO A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE CENTER.
DURING THE NEXT 24 H...BERYL WILL PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE PRODUCES UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. BY 36-
48 H...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST BERYL TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HOW WILL BERYL WILL EVOLVE AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CANADIAN MERGES THE SYSTEM WITH A
COLD FRONT IN 72 H...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST BERYL TO
BECOME THE FOCUS OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY BY MERGER WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW BERYL AND THE FRONTAL WAVE REMAINING SPEARATE
THROUGH 120 H. A 96 H FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADDED AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/11. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 36 H...WITH THE CENTER MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE REACHING THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL
LOCATION AND MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES DURING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOWING A
POSITION EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY 96-120 H...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
UKMET FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES
AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM 12-24 H...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 33.1N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1800Z 34.2N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 37.5N 69.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 38.6N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/0600Z 39.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0600Z 41.0N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
-
¿Parece que esta va a llegar lejos, no?
Además parece que se dirige hacia las Azores...
-
Fijaos la pedazo de animacion que he encontrado en el blog del CIMSS :o :D1
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/120527_g13_vis_beryl_anim.gif (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/120527_g13_vis_beryl_anim.gif)
-
¿Parece que esta va a llegar lejos, no?
Además parece que se dirige hacia las Azores...
Efectivamente, es muy curioso el rumbo que le traza el CNH :P Lo adjunto con el attach.
-
Fijaos la pedazo de animacion que he encontrado en el blog del CIMSS :o :D1
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/120527_g13_vis_beryl_anim.gif (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/120527_g13_vis_beryl_anim.gif)
Impresionante, tío ! :o :o :o :o
-
BERYL está perdiendo sus características tropicales...................
-
Yo dejo esta del Weather Unground, que viene con el satélite:
(http://foros.embalses.net/attachment.php?attachmentid=7390&d=1338386503)
-
Azores puede recibir un buen temporal cuando ex-BERYL sea absorbido por otra borrasca cercana al área :o
-
Aquí tenemos a ex-BERYL manteniendo una estructura muy decente, y no totalmente extratropicalizada... Al menos eso me parece a mí.
-
BERYL ayuda a paliar, al menos en parte, la extrema sequía que padece el sureste de EEUU: http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2708-la-tormenta-tropical-beryl-alivia-la-extrema-sequia-del-sureste-de-eeuu.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/61-noticias-sobre-huracanes-ciclones-y-tifones/2708-la-tormenta-tropical-beryl-alivia-la-extrema-sequia-del-sureste-de-eeuu.html)