Carlos se mantiene estacionario... lo cual puede provocar upwelling de nuevo, y que no progrese con la intensidad esperada...De hecho, la animación de imágenes IR+RGB muestra un debilitamiento de la convección...
De momento se mantienen los pronósticos de que llegue a convertirse en huracán...
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 120852
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015
400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015
Carlos has changed little in strength during the last several
hours. Infrared images and a recent GPM microwave image indicate
that the center is embedded within the deep convection. The latest
Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT were
unchanged from earlier, and support an intensity of 50 kt.
Northeasterly shear of about 15 kt is expected to persist
for another day or two, so only gradual intensification is
predicted. Some weakening is forecast by the end of the period when
Carlos is expected to approach a drier airmass and cooler sea
surface temperatures. Little change was made to the previous
intensity forecast, and it lies near the high end of the model
guidance.
The tropical storm is currently embedded in very weak steering
currents and has generally been drifting northwestward during the
past 6 hours or so. The steering currents are expected to remain
weak for another day or so, therefore, Carlos will likely continue
to meander during that time. Beyond 48 hours, mid-level ridging is
expected to build to the north of the storm resulting in a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a faster forward
speed. This forecast will keep the core of Carlos on a track
parallel to the coast of Mexico. The model guidance has changed
little this cycle. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and is also close to the model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.9N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.3N 101.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 16.6N 103.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 18.2N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi