000
WTPZ43 KNHC 111440
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

The organization of the tropical cyclone has gradually increased,
with a curved band of deep convection wrapping more than half way
around the system's center.  The intensity is analyzed to be 35 kt
based upon a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak estimates with
consideration that the pattern recognition methods were apparently
a bit biased high in comparison with the ASCAT scatterometer
winds overnight.  Thus the system is upgraded to Carlos, the third
tropical storm of the season in the Eastern North Pacific.

Even though the cyclone is over very warm waters, Carlos is likely
to continue to intensify at a moderate pace due to about 15 kt of
northeasterly vertical shear expected during the next two to three
days.  At the longer forecast times, the shear may decrease as
Carlos approaches the axis of the upper-tropospheric ridge.
However, a dry and more stable environment at that time may preclude
substantial intensification.  Given that Carlos' track now is
projected to remain away from the Mexican coast for at least
the short-term, it is less likely that land influences will affect
the system.  The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend
of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical-dynamical models and is slightly
lower than that from the previous advisory.

Carlos is moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt.  Shortly, a
developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cause the steering
pattern to weaken and Carlos should meander northward for the
next couple of days.  In three to four days, a deep-layered ridge
will become re-established north of Carlos and help propel it
northwest or west-northwestward at a slow forward speed,
paralleling the southwestern Mexican coast.  The official track
prediction is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and
is just slightly southwest of that from the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 13.6N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 14.0N 100.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 14.2N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 14.4N 100.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 15.6N 101.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 16.8N 104.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 17.7N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 131455
TCDEP3

HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

Satellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged
eye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery.  In addition,
radar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become
established, although it is still open on the north side.  Dvorak
estimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial
intensity.

After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a
northwestward drift.  For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge
over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the
west-northwest.  Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja
California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward.
However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected
yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.  Track guidance has been steadily shifting
eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While
I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has
been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico.
Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
warning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast.

Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with
decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will
occur over the next day or so.  However, there is very poor
agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing
atmospheric factors and possible land interaction.  The new NHC
forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from
the previous one.  It is worth noting that the normally
conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction.

With Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on
record that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern
Pacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake