Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Junio 17, 2010, 17:03:33 pm
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Está la cosa calentita en el EPAC... Aunque estos ciclones tienen poco abono para prosperar. Tampoco se espera mucho de esta nueva depresión.
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 171451
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BECOME
PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A
1215 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY
SHEAR...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT THE DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER MEXICO SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
WOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY MOVED THE PRECURSOR LOW FROM THE
DEPRESSION MUCH TOO QUICKLY TO THE WEST...PROBABLY BECAUSE IT HAS
BEEN ENTANGLED IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THAT FEATURE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOT TOO FAR
FROM THE ECMWF MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 15.3N 105.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 105.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 105.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 15.7N 106.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 15.9N 107.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Bueno bueno... :D1
Blas ha llegado.
000
WTPZ63 KNHC 171537
TCUEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
840 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM A SHIP INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM BLAS...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR. NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME.
SUMMARY OF 840 AM PDT...1540 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 105.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Posible centro en 106.5W 14.5N? ::)
(http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/130/rblh.jpg)
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Ya decía yo, viendo las últimas imágenes del visible... Estos predictores se llevan sorpresas todos los años ::)
Cambiado el nombre al hilo 8)
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Pues si, ya tenemos a BLAS
35kts-1000mb
(http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/3809/22872197.jpg)
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BLAS pega un saltito y se acerca a la categoría 1
TORMENTA TROPICAL
55kts-992mb
(http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/4976/201006191730goes11ir03e.jpg)
(http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/5977/201003e.png)
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Mucha cizalladura, convección desplazada al SO...
(http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/9593/201006192300goes11xvis1.jpg)
No pasará de aqui... ::)
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zona desfavorable
(http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/3438/splitw.jpg) (http://img97.imageshack.us/i/splitw.jpg/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)
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Situación Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 40 kt (74 km/h).
Rachas máximas: 45 kt (83.3 km/h).
Presión: 1001 mb.
Movimiento: Oeste-Noroeste a 10 kt (16.9 km/h)
(http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/9337/123asp.jpg)
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Situación Actual
Vientos sostenidos: 30 kt (55.6 km/h)
Rachas máximas: 39 kt (72.2 km/h)
Presión: 1007 mb.
Movimiento: Oeste a 11 kts (20.3 km/h)
Ya ha pasado a Depresión Tropical, como anunciaban los pronósticos
(http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/8262/48841398.jpg)