Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Julio 20, 2011, 21:20:46 pm
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TACHÁN !!!
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al992011_al032011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107201855
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 03, 2011, DB, O, 2011071918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL032011
AL, 03, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 327N, 683W, 20, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2011071900, , BEST, 0, 329N, 674W, 20, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2011071906, , BEST, 0, 332N, 665W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2011071912, , BEST, 0, 334N, 655W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 03, 2011071918, , BEST, 0, 332N, 638W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2011072000, , BEST, 0, 331N, 618W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 100, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2011072006, , BEST, 0, 331N, 595W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 100, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2011072012, , BEST, 0, 333N, 569W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 100, 45, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 03, 2011072018, , BEST, 0, 345N, 547W, 30, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1606/GOES18452011201kAgiw2_gdc8.jpg)
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Aunque el NHC todavía no lo ha hecho oficial :P
03L.THREE.30kts.1009mb.34.5N.54.7W
De momento, tenemos una depresión tropical al E de Bermudas
Por cierto, que ya ha ido una cazahuracanes a ve que tal la cosa 8)
(http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/1747/at201199sat.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/30/at201199sat.jpg/)
Veremos...
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Hora local de Caracas 3:55pm
DT-03L
A unos 550Km al ENE de Bermuda, se esta dirigiendo hacia aguas por debajo de los 25º, por lo que tendrá muy poco umbral de tiempo para desarrollarte tropicalmente:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000004-44.jpg)
El aire seco está invadiendo su centro, por lo que la convección esta alejada del vórtice
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/1_000003-73.jpg)
No creo vaya a tener nombre.
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Tenemos nueva TS, inesperada por todos hace apenas 24 horas.
(http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/5373/203612w5nlsm.gif)
000
WTNT33 KNHC 202038
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011
...TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 53.8W
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST. CINDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CINDY WILL REMAIN FAR FROM LAND OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS CINDY ENCOUNTERS COLDER WATER AND LESS
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
(http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/5126/visl.jpg)
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Buenas noches Un sistema de baja presión cerca del norte de Bermudas se transformó en la tormenta tropical Cindy en el océano Atlántico, indicó el miércoles el Centro Nacional de Huracanes (CNH).
"(Tiene) vientos máximos sostenidos de 40 millas (cerca de 64 kilómetros) por hora con ráfagas de mayor intesidad. Es posible un lento fortalecimiento en las próximas 24 horas", indicó el CNH.
El centro de Cindy seguirá lejos de la tierra, de todas formas creo que a entrar en aguas abierta de óceano atlántico perderá bastante fuerza veremos como evolucionará las próximas horas ???
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Creo que es la primera vez que leo en un boletín del CNH que una tormenta puede intensificarse un poco más estando sobre aguas a 24ºC, y con una cizalladura encima de 20-25 KT...................... Desde luego, estos sistemas, no son como el resto de ciclones tropicales comunes, que parecen más vulnerables a los ambientes hostiles tanto de temperaturas oceánicas como de cizalladura 8) Cómo me sigo acordando de CANDELARIA, en febrero de 2010............................
000
WTNT43 KNHC 210258
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011
CINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OR SATELLITE PRESENTATION OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A TIMELY 0058 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT VECTORS IN A GENERALLY CONVECTION-FREE
REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45
KT ON THIS ADVISORY. CINDY IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
20-25 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A 2302 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
CINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM BRET TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/21. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND CINDY WILL
CONTINUE ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS
LIFE. THE GFDL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS A SHARP NORTHWARD
TURN JUST AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFS. THIS
TRACK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CINDY REMAINS
OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 24C. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER. THE GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD OPEN UP BY 72
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS DISSIPATION BY THAT
TIME.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LOWERED TO 1004 MB BASED ON DRIFTING BUOY
44943...WHICH CROSSED THE PATH OF CINDY AND REPORTED A WELL-
CALIBRATED PRESSURE OF 1007.3 A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0300Z 36.3N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 38.5N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 41.3N 44.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 44.0N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/0000Z 46.8N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Ooops ¿ya había un hilo? Por alguna razón no lo ví anoche... :-X
Pues sí, estos sistemas están hechos de otra pasta, ahora mismo ya tiene una característica forma de tormenta subtropical, con la actividad tormentosa más fuerte concentrada en un arco que se aleja del centro en dirección noreste.
(http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/3026/rblx.jpg)
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Y ha desarrollado una especie de "ojo", aunque el predictor que ha elaborado el último boletín de discusión del CNH evita llamarlo así (eye-like feature).
000
WTNT43 KNHC 210923
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
CORRECTED TIME IN SECOND PARAGRAPH
CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.
WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT
INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY
REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH
COLDER WATER. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD
WATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 38.3N 49.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 40.7N 45.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 43.8N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 22/1800Z 46.8N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/0600Z 50.0N 27.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
(http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/2284/2011al031kmirimg2011072.gif)
(http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/6897/2011al031kmsrvis2011072.gif)
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Joder, que sitio mas raro para la formación de un sistema tropical, no????? Me ha cogido totalmente de sorpresa :o :o
Parece que seguirá como TT por lo menos hasta el Ssbado, como indica las previsiones del CNH.
Y quien sabe si en un futuro los restos puedan llegar a la peninsula... :P :P
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Joder, que sitio mas raro para la formación de un sistema tropical, no????? Me ha cogido totalmente de sorpresa :o :o
Parece que seguirá como TT por lo menos hasta el Ssbado, como indica las previsiones del CNH.
Y quien sabe si en un futuro los restos puedan llegar a la peninsula... :P :P
No lo creo...... El A de las Azores se encargará de enviarlo a tomar viento............ Así que te puedes ir olvidando, jejeje :P
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Buenas tardes pues la verdad tormentones creo que no llegará los resto de Cindy a la Península Ibérica ojala que llegará algo :'(.
Pero creo que como dice Galé debido al ( A ) de azores lo que haria sería debilitarla y creo por otra parte que la trayectoria sería haci Inglaterra donde el agua del mar esta bastante más fria y no sobreviviria, solo llegaría como una borrasca profunda, si es cierto que si el anticiclón de Azores hubiera estado más hacía el norte, hubieramos tenido una posibilidad de que esa tormenta tropical hubiera sobrevivido ya que sobre el Océano Atlántico la temperatura rondan los 24º a 26º , pero lo veo imposible que llegé a España y menos en un mes de julio ;D
Buenas tardes y un gran saludo ;)
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Algún modelo lo manda a la península :P
De momento sigue ahí, a ver que pasa ::)
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Poco le queda a Cindy 8)
Jeff Masters la analiza en su blog. Me gustaría subrayar algunas cosas de importancia que comenta
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.
"La formación de Cindy fue de 24 días antes de la fecha habitual para la formación de la tercera tormenta nombrada en la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico, que es el 13 de agosto. Este año tiene la temporada más activa más temprana desde 2008, cuando el huracán Dolly fue nombrado el 20 de julio."
8)
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Estos sistemas son siempre interesantísimos 8) 8) Un mundo aparte en el universo de los ciclones tropicales :D1
000
WTNT43 KNHC 212038
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL. A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.
CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 42.3N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 47.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/0600Z 51.6N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1800Z 55.0N 22.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Vamos, que ha intentado formar un eyewall..................
(http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/9018/2011al034kmirimg2011072.gif)
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(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8467/image.ashx_ptp7.gif) :o
Las comparaciones son odiosas, pero...
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En el último boletín sobre CINDY, de nuevo se nota un poco de sorpresa, por la persistencia del ciclón pese a condiciones hostiles de SST y cizalladura. Vamos, lo que decía yo anoche... Que estos sistemas son increíbles. Son resistentes a todo, aguas frías y cizalladuras 8)
000
WTNT43 KNHC 220258
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
CINDY HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER CORE OF SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY THE GEOSTATIONARY AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING
TO WARM. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS ANALYZED
BASED UPON THE TAFB DVORAK CI OF 3.0 AND A 22Z AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE
OF 39 KT. THE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A
WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE AND THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. INSTEAD...IT APPEARS THAT CINDY WILL LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT A DAY OR SOONER DUE TO PASSING OVER QUITE
COLD SSTS AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH NOT SHOWING AN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS NEW TO THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS QUICKLY CONTINUING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT
23 KT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO ITS NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT ISSUED
PREVIOUSLY.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A
CIRA AMSU SIZE ESTIMATE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 43.5N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 45.9N 39.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 49.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1200Z 53.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
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En el mapa de superficie aparece aún con su estructura independiente.
A lo largo de la jornada quedará integrado en el flujo ciclónico atlántico.
(http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/9189/iso220711.jpg)
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Sin duda, sigue luchando por sobrevivir, en un ambiente completamente hostil para un ciclón tropical 8)
000
WTNT43 KNHC 220846
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011
CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND OF MODEST
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER
RAGGED IN APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM
SAB...AND 49 KT FROM THE MOST RECENT CIRA-AMSU OVERPASS.
CINDY IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/25. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
CINDY IS ALREADY OVER 20C SSTS...AND ONLY COLDER WATER LIES AHEAD OF
IT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER...AND DISSIPATE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES BY 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP KABL AT 06Z.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 44.5N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 46.7N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 50.0N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 52.7N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Efectivamente, sigue mostrando un aspecto bastante decente y aún con convección ;)
(http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/6897/2011al031kmsrvis2011072.gif)
Por otro lado, esta es la imagen que presentaba ayer en algunos momentos, completamente parecida a varios INVESTs formados en temporadas anteriores, entorno a Azores, y que sólo quedaron como eso, INVESTs...
(http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/5061/2011al031kmvsimg2011072.gif)
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Y persisite con forma en aguas muy frías :o
-
Ciertamente son eventos totalmente interesantes. :o
-
Se sale del mapa como tormenta tropical ;D
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-qgtobkR8-ZY/TinjzDgX_jI/AAAAAAAAAKA/CjffAd2UQcc/atl_overview2.gif)
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Y sigue aguantando!! :o
000
WTNT33 KNHC 222044
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011
...CINDY NOW WEAKENING OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.9N 34.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST. CINDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE COLD
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND CINDY IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AND DISSIPATE ON
SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN