000
WTNT33 KNHC 202038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011

...TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 53.8W
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST. CINDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CINDY WILL REMAIN FAR FROM LAND OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS CINDY ENCOUNTERS COLDER WATER AND LESS
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 210258
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011

CINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OR SATELLITE PRESENTATION OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...A TIMELY 0058 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT VECTORS IN A GENERALLY CONVECTION-FREE
REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45
KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  CINDY IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
20-25 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A 2302 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

CINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM BRET TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/21.  THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND CINDY WILL
CONTINUE ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS
LIFE.  THE GFDL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS A SHARP NORTHWARD
TURN JUST AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFS.  THIS
TRACK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CINDY REMAINS
OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 24C.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER.  THE GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD OPEN UP BY 72
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS DISSIPATION BY THAT
TIME.

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LOWERED TO 1004 MB BASED ON DRIFTING BUOY
44943...WHICH CROSSED THE PATH OF CINDY AND REPORTED A WELL-
CALIBRATED PRESSURE OF 1007.3 A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 36.3N  51.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 38.5N  48.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 41.3N  44.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 44.0N  39.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/0000Z 46.8N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTNT43 KNHC 210923
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011

CORRECTED TIME IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.
WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT
INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY
REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH
COLDER WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD
WATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 38.3N  49.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 40.7N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 43.8N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  22/1800Z 46.8N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/0600Z 50.0N  27.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Joder, que sitio mas raro para la formación de un sistema tropical, no?? Me ha cogido totalmente de sorpresa

Parece que seguirá como TT por lo menos hasta el Ssbado, como indica las previsiones del CNH.

Y quien sabe si en un futuro los restos puedan llegar a la peninsula...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 212038
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011

SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL.  A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED
AROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA
AMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24.  CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.

CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 42.3N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 44.5N  41.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 47.9N  36.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  23/0600Z 51.6N  29.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/1800Z 55.0N  22.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN