Hace rato que debería haber salido la actualización de las 2 pm EDT, porque son las 14:36 EDT si no me equivoco ¿o se le quitan 4 horas a la UTC para sacar la EDT? Yo tengo entendido que son 3 menos de la UTC.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060345
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010
1100 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010

COLIN HAS MAINTAINED A SATELLITE CLOUD SIGNATURE SIMILAR TO WHEN A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM 6 HOURS AGO. SINCE
THEN...A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS WANED A LITTLE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN THE CENTER OF COLIN AND
NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED 225 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST SUPPORTS KEEPING
THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. COLIN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
BY 72 HOURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THROUGH 48
HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. COLIN IS EXPECTED
TO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA IN 36-48 HOURS...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT
DEVIATION TO THE EAST COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER BERMUDA.

SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT CONTINUES TO HINDER
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF COLIN...AND THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...FROM 36 TO 48 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS COLIN
PASSES BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND MOVES UNDER A SMALL
RIDGE...WHICH PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR COLIN TO
STRENGTHEN. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS BRING COLIN TO NEAR 60 KT BY
48 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS NEAR BERMUDA...AND THIS TREND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 26.3N  66.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 27.4N  66.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 29.1N  67.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 30.7N  66.8W    55 KT
48HR VT     08/0000Z 32.6N  66.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 37.2N  63.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 43.0N  57.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 50.5N  45.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTNT44 KNHC 060838
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010
500 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 25 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL...HAS
AGAIN TAKEN A TOLL ON COLIN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW
COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE PULSING DEEP CONVECTION.  AN
ASCAT PASS AROUND 0118 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL 35-40 KT RETRIEVALS EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT IN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD GIVE COLIN AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RE-INTENSIFY.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AGAIN BY 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARD THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AFTER THAT.

THE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12...TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. COLIN IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ANCHORED BY ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 27N 75W AND
ANOTHER NEAR BERMUDA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE LOWS
WILL MOVE AWAY AND ALLOW COLIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER SPEED
INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN
CANADA.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN COLIN AND
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE TROUGH VARIES WIDELY IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL MOVE COLIN MORE SLOWLY AND DELAY
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAY 4...WHILE THE UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND HWRF TAKE COLIN MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH ABOUT A DAY EARLIER. GIVEN THAT
THE 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE ABOUT
1000 MILES APART...THIS TRACK FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE
TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE
FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. ONE
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT IF COLIN REMAINS A SHALLOW SYSTEM
WITHOUT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE FARTHER TO THE LEFT
AND MORE SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
SHALLOW BAM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 26.8N  67.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 27.9N  67.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 29.8N  67.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 31.5N  66.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 33.6N  65.7W    55 KT
72HR VT     09/0600Z 38.5N  62.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 44.0N  56.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     11/0600Z 50.5N  45.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN