000WTNT44 KNHC 241159TCDAT4TROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORMWARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THEOCHOLOCKONEE RIVER. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF TROPICALSTORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THERE HAVE BEEN NOCHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK NOR INTENSITY.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 24/1200Z 27.5N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH120H 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH$$FORECASTER AVILA
000WTNT44 KNHC 242034TCDAT4TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THISADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARDALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONEMEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARDSOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEWTWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEENFORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOWHAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THENORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE INMARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUTNOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THEGULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCEFORECAST.DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITYIN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THERECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIALINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGEMUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TOREMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHTSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONEWILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANDTHE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND$$FORECASTER AVILA
Con el aspecto que tiene, no se como ha podido ser nombrado como DEBBY y el sistema de depresion de las azores, conmejor pinto no lo fue Sera porque esta afectando a los EE.UU??? Pues sera por eso