Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Fox Cane en Julio 24, 2013, 10:53:54 am
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NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982013_al042013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
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0000
201307240719
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 04, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, AL042013
(http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/4995/oe2.gif)
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30kts-1008mb
(http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/7421/hjr4.jpg)
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Wow! Aer no daba un céntimo por este sistema... y vaya sorpresa! Especialmente por su presentación satelital, muy bonita, compacta y simétrica! :o :o :o :o
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/629/2013AL04_1KMSRVIS_201307240900_iyz3.GIF)
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En nada será nombrada creo yo.
Después, si se mantiene por debajo de 15N tendrá opciones con cizalladura favorable pero con aire seco interfiriendo en su desarrollo.
Si llega viva a 60W las condiciones mejorarán, aunque las previsiones a largo plazo de la cizalladura son tan poco fiables que a saber.
En general tiene pinta de otro Chantal, como ya comenté.
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Hay un buen anticiclón en altura sobre 04L, cizalladura baja, la intensificación debería continuar durante las próximas 48 horas. Después el pronóstico de cizalladura no lo veo malo, pero el aire seco y la posible aceleración de desplazamiento del sistema deberían frenar su intensificación.
(http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.GIF)
(http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/4894/ah2.gif)
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Tiene mucha pinta de Tormenta Tropical.
(http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/5462/3klu.jpg)
(http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/3157/srnu.png)
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Tenemos a Dorian
AL, 04, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D,
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Pues ya puedes proceder al cambio de nombre del hilo ;D 8)
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Ufff.... Impresionante su aspecto actual... Incluso queriendo generar una estructura en forma de ojo...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6357/dorian_dhr2.jpg)
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¿Eyewall en formacion? ¿Se ve algo en el microondas?
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¿Eyewall en formacion? ¿Se ve algo en el microondas?
No.... Ni en el MIMIC-TC de CIMSS, ni en otras versiones... De todos modos, es tan pequeño, que igual no hay suficiente resolución...
(http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2013_04L/webManager/last24hrs.gif)
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mmmmmm...
(http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/2638/h0cl.jpg)
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Hola a todos!!! Dorian no lleva mucha prisa como lo hizo chantal.
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Hora local de Caracas 11:30am
11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/a-8.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/a-8.jpg.html)
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/c-4.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/c-4.jpg.html)
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/b-9.gif) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/b-9.gif.html)
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GFS le otorga una intensificación agresiva a la Tormenta Tropical Dorian en las inmediaciones de Puerto Rico. Habrá que estar muy atentos a este sistema que podría ser un peligro inminente para ciertas islas del Caribe
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Si llega vivo tras tan largo viaje, desde luego....
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100 usando Tapatalk 2
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 242045
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF DORIAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/17 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE
THE FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH
OF DORIAN. THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS MAINTAIN A ROBUST
AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE...WHICH GETS STEERED MORE SLOWLY
BY THE DEEPER MEAN FLOW. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS
WEAKEN DORIAN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER COOLER WATER
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A SHALLOWER AND WEAKER
VORTEX BEING STEERED MORE RAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE STRONGER EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. GIVEN THAT DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER
AT A BRISK 18 KT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...MY FEELING IS THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING...AND AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
DORIAN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR 25C FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. HOWEVER...BY 36-48
HOURS...DORIAN WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER SSTS WARMER THAN 26C AND IN
A VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE RIDGING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN CONSIDERATION OF THAT...
THE FORECAST INTENSITIES AT DAYS 4-5 HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 14.6N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 15.3N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.1N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 17.5N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 18.7N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.6N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 20.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
:O* :O* :O* :O*
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Hay un buen anticiclón en altura sobre 04L, cizalladura baja, la intensificación debería continuar durante las próximas 48 horas. Después el pronóstico de cizalladura no lo veo malo, pero el aire seco y la posible aceleración de desplazamiento del sistema deberían frenar su intensificación.
Stewart coincide conmigo. Go Stewart! ;D
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE RIDGING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN CONSIDERATION OF THAT...
THE FORECAST INTENSITIES AT DAYS 4-5 HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
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Hora local de Caracas 9:30pm
Dorian sigue fortaleciéndose. El ATCF del CNH de las 00Z indicando 1000mb y 50 mph (81 Km/h)
AL, 04, 2013072500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 324W, 50, 1000, TS,
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/Image_000022-1.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/Image_000022-1.jpg.html)
Offtopic: Lamentable la tragedia ocurrida en Galicia. Desde este lado del Atlántico no puedo enviar mas que buena vibra en pensamientos a través de ustedes amigos del foro
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Gracias amigo Eric, aciago día por aquí sin duda.
Pongo la última discusión del CNH. Muchísima incertidumbre, especialmente respecto a la intensidad de Dorian.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 250837
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013
DORIAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT AMSU
OVERPASS SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH IT WAS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE WAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND A RECENT AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM CIMSS WAS 48 KT. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. DORIAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...DORIAN SHOULD
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IT LIES SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE. DORIAN
SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS...BUT DURING THIS TIME IT ALSO MAY ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
TO SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DORIAN TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL AND IS STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 15.6N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.3N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 17.8N 44.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 55.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 20.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 21.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Dorian batallando el aire seco con eficiencia.
(http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/4932/w3j.gif)
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Se le ve saludable.
(http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/5707/dkeq.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 12m
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/a-9.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/a-9.jpg.html)
RESUMEN DE LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
----------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...16.0 NORTE 35.9 OESTE
CERCA DE 1800 MI...2900 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM POR HORA
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 17 MPH...28 KM POR
HORA
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...999 MB...29.50 PULGADAS
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No le he prestado mucha atención a Dorian desde hace casi 24 horas pero parece que se ha desacoplado en niveles bajos y medios...
(http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/5673/u3lq.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 12:30pm
Dorian ha perdido fuerza y por ende identidad en las últimas horas:
LOCALIZACION...17.7 NORTE 43.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 1295 MI...2085 KM AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO NORTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...OESTE NOROESTE O 285 GRADOS A 21 MPH...33 KM/H
PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/3-28.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/3-28.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 9:30pm
Dorian es un zombie vagando por el Atlántico :shock: :shock: :
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/c-5.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/c-5.jpg.html)
El CNH lo mantiene como Tormenta Tropical aún, pero es posible sea degradada a Depresión, e inclusive a remanentes. Pero que le pasó?
El gran "error" de Dorian fue desprenderse de la ZCIT. Vean como en el mapa de superficie de las 00Z de hoy viernes se mantenía aferrada a la ZCIT, proporcionándole toda la humedad y manteniéndose hérmética frente a las condiciones secas de su entorno, pero una vez se independiza pierde dicha dinámica y comienza su declive. En el mapa de superficie de las 18Z (vigente a la hora de este reporte) se aprecia la desvinculación:
00Z
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/Image_000022-2.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/Image_000022-2.jpg.html)
18Z
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/Image_000021-2.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/Image_000021-2.jpg.html)
Dicha condición permite la invasión de aire seco y por ende la baja humedad es una condición desfavorable:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/f-1.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/f-1.jpg.html)
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/d-3.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/d-3.jpg.html)
La cizalladura no es prohibitiva, sin embargo en la medida se acerque al Caribe NE encontrará valores prohibitivos sino se relaja el viento de corte, otro punto en contra:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/g.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/g.jpg.html)
Veremos como se sobrepone a todo estos factores negativos. No apuesto mucho por un resurgimiento.
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Fue bonito mientras duró... pues nada seguimos en la línea del año pasado, MDR con mucho aire seco, poca inestabilidad vertical y por ende tormentas muy débiles. Todo ello se resume en mi gráfico favorito, nunca falla :P
Ya pueden salir muchas ondas potentes de África que si sigue por debajo de la línea climatológica, todas las tormentas correrán la misma suerte de Chantal y Dorian.
(http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/3614/tcik.gif)