000WTNT45 KNHC 041443TCDAT5TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0520111100 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTERORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVELCENTER. TODAY THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION WITHCYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...A POSSIBLE CENTRAL DENSEOVERCAST...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOMEESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THERECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE WINDSREMAIN AT 45 KNOTS AND THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS STEADY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL. THE CYCLONE ISFORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA ANDEASTERN CUBA AND THAT IMPLIES WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...GLOBALMODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...AND OBVIOUSLY THESE MODELSCAN DETECT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT APPARENT TO ME.THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTENSIFICATION WITH SUCHINDICATIONS FROM THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHIPSAND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THIS HIGHDEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NOSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY...OR PERHAPS FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENINGAS THE CYCLONE MOVES BY HAITI AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE EMILY REACHES THE AREA OFTHE BAHAMAS. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT EMILY ISMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. GLOBALMODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ATROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERNFAVORS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITHA GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST EMILY WILL REACH BEFORE RECURVATURE...PRIMARILY GIVEN THAT GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF EMILY WELL OFF THEEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND GIVEN THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORCEWIND RADII ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...A TROPICAL STORMWATCH FOR THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 04/1500Z 17.3N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 18.6N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 23.0N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 78.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 29.0N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 32.5N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 09/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH$$FORECASTER AVILA
Como bien decís, las probabilidades de que no siga adelante son bastante apreciables.Pero además, el que se gire hacia el noroeste... ya es de nota, porque "no parece muy intersado" en hacerlo...
000WTNT35 KNHC 041757TCPAT5BULLETINTROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011200 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011...MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA TAKING A TOLL ON EMILY...CYCLONE COULDDEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY...SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...17.8N 72.8WABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITIMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Entonces, si se regenera, recibirá otro nombre? Ilústrame, Santi
1. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM EMILY...ISPRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDINGFROM EASTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTEDTO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THENORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH..