Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018
Even though the circulation is gradually becoming less elongated,
there is still relatively little deep convection near the estimated
center of circulation. Instead, most of the convection remains
confined to the monsoon trough southwest of the center, where
low-level convergence is strongest. Therefore, the system is not
quite yet being designated as a tropical cyclone.
Global model fields suggest that the low should detach from the
monsoon trough within the next 12 hours, which would likely allow
deep convection to form closer to the center. Assuming that
happens, the system is also forecast to strengthen and become a
tropical storm by this afternoon while it approaches the southern
Cabo Verde Islands. Although vertical shear is expected to be
relatively light for much of the forecast period, sea surface
temperatures ahead of the system are marginal, and the low will
likely move over a minimum of oceanic heat content in 48-72 hours.
Adding on top of that a drier mid-level environment, only gradual
strengthening is anticipated through day 5. A majority of the
intensity models agree on this scenario, with the exception of the
HWRF model, which brings the system close to major hurricane
strength at the end of the forecast period. Since that solution is
discounted at the moment, the NHC intensity forecast is below the
HCCA guidance and closest to the intensity consensus.
The low appears to have turned west-northwestward with an initial
motion of 285/10 kt. A mid-level high centered west of the Canary
Islands should continue to steer the disturbance west-northwestward
at a faster clip for the next 4 days or so. By the end of the
forecast period, a weakness in the ridge over the eastern Atlantic
could cause the system to turn northwestward. The new NHC track
forecast is a little slower than the previous one during the first
72 hours and then a little to the west on days 4 and 5 to better
match the latest guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 13.6N 21.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 31/1800Z 14.2N 23.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 01/0600Z 14.8N 25.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 15.5N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 16.2N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.4N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 21.5N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018
Satellite images indicate that Florence's cloud pattern has improved
in organization with the low-level center embedded within the
convection, and a cyclonically curved band surrounding the system. A
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak numbers from TAFB, SAB, and
the UW-CIMMS yield an initial intensity of 40 kt.
My predecessor wrote a very clear explanation of the reasoning of
his track and intensity forecasts, and I do not think I can improve
on it. The environment continues to be mixed with favorable and
unfavorable conditions for Florence to strengthen. Currently,
the shear is low and favors strengthening, but the ocean along the
cyclone's forecast path is cooler. The latter condition should
inhibit significant intensification. After 3 days, the opposite is
anticipated -- the ocean will be warmer, but the shear will likely
be high. Only at the very long range could both factors become
favorable. The best option at this time is to show only a gradual
strengthening at the rate indicated by the intensity consensus aids.
Florence is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees
at 12 kt. No change in track is anticipated during the next 3 days
while Florence is located to the south of the subtropical ridge.
After that time, Florence will reach a break in the ridge causing
the cyclone to turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward
speed. The confidence in the forecast is high during the next 3 days
when the track guidance envelope is tightly packed. Thereafter, the
confidence is not so high since the envelope widens and becomes
bounded by the easternmost HWRF and the westernmost ECMWF models.
Since the guidance envelope shifted a little bit westward, the NHC
forecast was also adjusted slightly in that direction, primarily
during the end of the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 14.8N 27.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.1N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.5N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 21.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 23.5N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Tracker App(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmBJfHTUUAAAodm.jpg)
@hurrtrackerapp
Overnight EURO ensembles show the possible tracks of the potential gulf system next week and #Florence maybe getting much more west than initially thought. The entire Gulf coast should monitor the tropics closely next week and the E US needs to keep eyes on what #Florence does.
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018
Despite being over marginally warm water and in an environment of
moderate west-southwesterly shear, Florence's intensity has
increased during the day. The hurricane has a cloud-filled eye in
visible imagery, and the central dense overcast is becoming more
symmetric. Based on Dvorak estimates of T4.5 from TAFB and SAB,
and a SATCON estimate of 77 kt, the initial intensity is now,
somewhat surprisingly, 75 kt. Since the current intensification
trend may not be over, the official forecast calls for Florence to
strengthen just a little more during the next 6-12 hours. Even
though the hurricane will be moving over progressively warmer
waters, increasing vertical shear and dry air in the middle levels
of the atmosphere should induce some weakening in the 24-72 hour
time frame. Lower shear after 72 hours will likely allow Florence
to regain hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period.
The NHC intensity forecast is primarily adjusted to account for the
recent strengthening trend, and is closest to the Florida State
Superensemble and HCCA guidance.
Florence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt. This
trajectory is expected to continue through 36 hours while the
hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge. After 36 hours, Florence is expected to turn northwestward
and slow down as it enters a break in the ridge. The track models
are in good agreement and show little spread through 48 hours. On
days 3-5, the biggest outlier is the UKMET, which lies to the south
of the guidance suite. In fact, the bulk of the models, including
the deterministic GFS and ECMWF, are all now showing a more
definitive poleward motion by day 5. While the official NHC track
forecast reflects this thinking, there is still considerable spread
among the associated global model ensembles, and the longer-term
forecast should be considered low confidence.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.0N 44.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.1N 46.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 24.3N 50.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 26.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 27.5N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 29.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Philippe Papin
@pppapin
A lot have focused on the #Florence model battle b/w the ECMWF & GFS, but maybe the more important battle is to see how the new #FV3 performs vs. the #GFS.
06z runs were interesting because the #FV3 is weaker & further west compared to the op #GFS.
FV3 is similar to the ECMWF.
Taylor Trogdon(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmqX1WpWwAEJc7u.jpg)
@TTrogdon
Powerful key message from @NHC_Atlantic following their upgrading Florence to a hurricane: life-threatening impacts storm surge and freshwater flooding. Significant uncertainty still exists as to where the greatest impacts will occur. The southeast coast needs to prepare.
Estos pronósticos me recuerdan enormemente a lo que aconteció con el huracán Sandy, como el modelo ECMWF barrió en sus pronósticos al GFS, cuando el primero acertó en que tocaría tierra en la costa Este de EE.UU. y el americano ni lo olió... Muy interesantes los próximos días.
...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane. Satellite images
show that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection
increasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial
wind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more
accurate estimate.
The hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over
the next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F.
In combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast
during that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all
models show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. The
corrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this
intensification episode, and I don't see any reason to deviate much
from them at this time. As Florence approaches the southeastern
United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from
eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field
is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland
wind threats. The bottom line is that there is increasing
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.
During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again,
estimated at 11 kt. The steering currents are becoming well-
defined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the
west-northwest during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday,
a turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of
the Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed
due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. The various
models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus
has barely budged in the past few model cycles. Thus the new NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE
consensus guidance. It is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well
away from the center.
Key Messages:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.
4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Blake
NNNN
Me pregunto si, como en otros eventos similares de antaño, habrán algunos links donde acceder a las webcams de las zonas de impacto. Sé que en muchas ocasiones, no dan demasiado juego...pero no me puedo resisitir Xd !!.
Si alguien lo tiene a bien y si no hay otro hilo más adecuado, se podrían incluir los links a dichas webcams por aquí...o no...¿? :-X
Un saludo a todos.
Me pregunto si, como en otros eventos similares de antaño, habrán algunos links donde acceder a las webcams de las zonas de impacto. Sé que en muchas ocasiones, no dan demasiado juego...pero no me puedo resisitir Xd !!.
Si alguien lo tiene a bien y si no hay otro hilo más adecuado, se podrían incluir los links a dichas webcams por aquí...o no...¿? :-X
Un saludo a todos.
https://www.wral.com/north_carolina_webcams/10997074/
http://www.wistv.com/story/5314481/south-carolina-webcams
https://www.baysider.com/Webcams/United_States/Virginia_Beach/
Me pregunto si, como en otros eventos similares de antaño, habrán algunos links donde acceder a las webcams de las zonas de impacto. Sé que en muchas ocasiones, no dan demasiado juego...pero no me puedo resisitir Xd !!.
Si alguien lo tiene a bien y si no hay otro hilo más adecuado, se podrían incluir los links a dichas webcams por aquí...o no...¿? :-X
Un saludo a todos.
https://www.wral.com/north_carolina_webcams/10997074/
http://www.wistv.com/story/5314481/south-carolina-webcams
https://www.baysider.com/Webcams/United_States/Virginia_Beach/
Buena sugerencia.
Todas las que vayáis aportando buenas serán. Las iremos recopilando y subiendo al blog incluso. A ver dónde finalmente hace impacto e iremos afinando la búsqueda.
Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm38WnyXgAAo73_.jpg)
@RyanMaue
It's disconcerting every model forecast update from ECMWF to see even more disastrous coastal tracks. #Florence heads southwest paralleling the coast ... bizarre.
The forecast after 72-hours is certainly a challenge ... and a nightmare.
NWS WPC(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm4wGReWsAAf8Ar.jpg)
@NWSWPC
The tropical cyclone-related rainfall records for the Southeast since 1950. 1870-1949 rain data do not reveal wetter storms for the Carolinas. As 40" local amounts are possible from Florence, the rain forecast is beyond what has been previously seen/witnessed for the Carolinas.
Philip Klotzbach(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dm4TMIfUYAAbGXD.jpg)
@philklotzbach
Table of 10 strongest North Carolina #hurricane landfalls as ranked by central pressure. #Florence #FlorenceNC
No consigo ver ninguna web cam. O está directamente el enlave caido o se pone a pensar y al final no conecta. Si alguien consigue ver alguna que pase enlace, porfa.
Edito para añadir:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BnqxZnql6A3/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=epbzajsmyi8b
Enviado desde mi Oneplus 5t
Muchas graciasNo consigo ver ninguna web cam. O está directamente el enlave caido o se pone a pensar y al final no conecta. Si alguien consigue ver alguna que pase enlace, porfa.
Edito para añadir:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BnqxZnql6A3/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=epbzajsmyi8b
Enviado desde mi Oneplus 5t
Por youtube van mejor:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v60c6QSuqSY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkv2hPMEJi0
* Si no te deja reproducir aqui, selecciona "reproducir en Youtube".
** El 2º link (el de la bandera), es con audio...y bastante bueno.
EDITO:
Otro con buen audio:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6sDft8yYQ4
Hay que reconocer que esta gente esta a otro nivel.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1040305773664980993
NOAA Satellites
@NOAASatellites
#GOESEast captured these two dramatic views of #HurricaneFlorence shortly after the storm made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, NC this morning. Latest updates: http://go.usa.gov/xPYSG
Hay que reconocer que esta gente esta a otro nivel.En lo bueno y en lo malo, parece.
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1040305773664980993