SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

An area of disturbed weather (99L) that formed along an old frontal boundary has grown much better organized over the past six hours, thanks to an decrease in wind shear. Strong upper level winds from the southwest are still creating about 15-20 knots of wind shear over 99L, but satellite loops of 99L show that a more organized circulation has formed, with heavy thunderstorm activity starting to build north of the center. The GFS-based SHIPS model is predicting wind shear will fall to 5 knots on Saturday over 99L, and this should allow the storm to organize into a tropical storm by Saturday. The storm may have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall Sunday night in South Carolina or North Carolina, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model. However, the SHIPS intensity model and the HWRF models are calling for a tropical storm and tropical depression, respectively, at landfall. My best guess is that this will be a 60-65 mph tropical storm at landfall, but there is a very high amount of uncertainty with this forecast. The storm is then expected to track northward and then northeastward along the coast, bringing heavy rains and high winds to the mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Monday and Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L at 5pm EDT today. NHC issued this special advisory at 8:45am today:

LA ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS ASOCIADA CON UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION ESTA
LOCALIZADO EN MEDIO DE BERMUDA Y EL COSTA SURESTA DE E.E.U.U. AUNQUE
LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS SON FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO...Y
TODAVIA EXISTE ALGUN POTENCIAL PARA QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN
UN CICLON TROPICAL. UN AVION DE RECONCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE
FUERZA AEREA ESTA PAUTADO PARA INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA ESTA TARDE.
SE PRONOSTICA QUE LA BAJA PRESION SE MOVERA GENERALMENTE HACIA OESTE
O NOROESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS... Y LOS INTERESES A LO LARGO
DE LA COSTA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO
DE ESTE SISTEMA.

Hmmmm... Pues es raro que hayan retirado el comunicado especial ese que había lanzado el NHC......... Y el caso es que tiene una pinta extraña. Es como si se hubiera desgajado en dos núcleos diferenciados, y como decía no sé si Angeotti o Fox en el topic de análisis del Atlántico, ojo al sistema de tormentas que hay en el Golfo de México