Disculpen mi ignorancia pero tengo entendido que una tormenta subtropical es cuando se forma màs arriba de ciertas latitudes, creo jejeje, entonces si Gabrielle esta en el mismo lugar, que diferencia hay entre tormenta subtropical y tropical??? osea porque se permitio ese cambio???
000WTNT42 KNHC 091142TCDAT2TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007800 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFTINDICATE THAT GABRIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED APEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT ABOUT 2 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THECENTER...WHICH HAS REFORMED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION UNDERNEATHTHE MID-LEVEL ROTATION OBERSERVED OVERNIGHT. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDSUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THATTHIS MESOSCALE VORTEX COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GABRIELLE MAKESLANDFALL...IT HAS PERSISTED AND BUILT DOWNWARD OVER THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS AND IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ASSUME THAT THESE TRENDSCOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY ISTHEREFORE INCREASED TO 55 KT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZEDTHAT THE INCREASED WINDS EXTEND ONLY A FEW MILES FROM THE CENTER.A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE 12 HOUR FORECASTPOINT...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE NEWINTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 09/1200Z 34.2N 76.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 35.3N 76.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 36.6N 74.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 39.2N 69.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW$$FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000WTNT42 KNHC 091500TCDAT2TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0720071100 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007GABRIELLE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE ASSOCIATEDSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERNQUADRANT. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONGESTREFLECTIVITIES ARE NO LONGER WRAPPING AROUND THE SMALLCIRCULATION... WHICH HAS SEPARATED A LITTLE FROM THE CONVECTION...PROBABLY DUE TO NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. IN ADDITION...VELOCITY DATAFROM THE RADAR SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED DURING THEPAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT THAT JUST FLEW THROUGH THECENTER HAS NOT SAMPLED THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERNQUADRANT...IT HAS NOT FOUND ANY WINDS TO SUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE HASSTRENGTHENED. SINCE GABRIELLE IS ABOUT TO INTERACT WITH LAND ANDNORTHERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HASBEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED.THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9...AND RADAR IMAGERY HINTS THAT THE TURNTO THE RIGHT IS BEGINNING. GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUNDTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THEWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATENORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE TRACKGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIALTRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GABRIELLE ISFORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72HOURS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 09/1500Z 34.7N 76.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 35.9N 75.8W 50 KT...NEAR NC COAST 24HR VT 10/1200Z 37.3N 73.9W 50 KT...OVER ATLANTIC 36HR VT 11/0000Z 38.5N 71.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 39.8N 67.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED$$FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
000WTNT42 KNHC 100232TCDAT2TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0720071100 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT GABRIELLE IS A POORLYORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION FAR TO THESOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STORM HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEANAND WAS FIXED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...FINDING 42KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FRISCO PIER SUGGEST THAT 40 KTREMAINS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONGSHEAR AND ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF WARM WATER REMAINING IN THESTORM'S PATH...SOME WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AND IS SHOWN IN THE NHCOFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM WILLREDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM ANDMAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIONCONTINUES TO BE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...GABRIELLE COULDLOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH AN EXTRATROPICALLOW IN A FEW DAYS.THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND IS ESTIMATEDNEAR 035/9. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THEWESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACKGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ISALMOST THE SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICALLOW BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES SUGGESTTHE POSSIBILITY OF GABRIELLE REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TOBE SEPARATE FROM THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT TO REMAIN A WEAKSYSTEM.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 10/0300Z 36.3N 75.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 37.2N 73.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 38.3N 70.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 39.5N 67.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 41.0N 62.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED$$FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
000WTNT42 KNHC 100840TCDAT2TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007500 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE INDICATES THAT GABRIELLEREMAINS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RECENTLYMOVED JUST NORTH OF BUOY 44014 WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...GABRIELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KTDEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ESSENTIALLY TAKESGABRIELLE ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. SINCE ANYDEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER WARMERWATERS...INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES FORM WOULD LIKELY BE QUICKLY SHEARED OFFAS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THEOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS GABRIELLE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR 2DAYS AT WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A STRONGEREXTRATROPICAL LOW. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REFORMSOON...GABRIELLE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/10. THERE HAS BEEN NOSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING OR GUIDANCE ANDTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THENEXT TWO DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING OVER THEEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINITIAL 10/0900Z 37.0N 74.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 37.8N 72.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 38.9N 69.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 40.4N 65.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 42.3N 60.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z...ABSORBED$$FORECASTER RHOME