Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Septiembre 04, 2013, 23:05:22 pm
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BTWPuC2CIAARRPa.jpg:large)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 042057
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS JUST ENOUGH OF A
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A 41 KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE.
THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DUE
TO THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED INITIAL STATE OF THE DEPRESSION. AFTER
THAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION COULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...AND IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THE
WIND SPEED PREDICTION ALSO FITS THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRUGGLE AFTER IT
LEAVES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...IS POSSIBLE AT LONG RANGE AS THE CYCLONE
INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ROUGHLY 305/8 AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK ALONG ABOUT 70W...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BE
SUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO
FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY ON...AND THEN IS A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME...PUTTING LESS WEIGHT ON THE
NORTHWARD GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 16.5N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.4N 67.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.6N 68.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 19.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 20.9N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 23.1N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 25.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 29.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hora local de Caracas 5:15pm
Se forma la DT 07L al SE de Puerto Rico:
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.5N 66.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Avisos de TT para Puerto Rico y República Dominicana
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/b-20.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/b-20.jpg.html)
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/a-20.gif) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/a-20.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 5:45pm
Brutal la convección al SE de Puerto Rico a ésta hora, sin embargo ese borbotón no esta acoplado aún con el centro:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/Image_000012-46.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/Image_000012-46.jpg.html)
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/Image_000013-44.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/Image_000013-44.jpg.html)
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Tiene que consolidarse un poco más en superficie.
La previsión de cizalladura vertical en 24h es inmejorable.
Interesante noche para Gabrielle?
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Hora local de Caracas 9:45pm
Welcome Gabrielle:
AL, 07, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 663W, 35, 1008, TS,
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/c-13.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/c-13.jpg.html)
Interesante como se ha compactado, se ha reducido el radio de lluvias intensas al centro, al Sur de Puerto Rico:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/d-8.gif) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/d-8.gif.html)
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Gabrielle produce impresionantes topes nubosos, sigue con el centro de circulación en niveles bajos desplazado al SW del centro en niveles medios.
Tiene pinta de inundar medio Puerto Rico :'(
(http://i44.tinypic.com/15yghlw.jpg)
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Hora local de Caracas 11:10am
Degradada a depresión tropical nuevamente. El centro se deja ver al Sur del Canal de la Mona:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/Image_000017-16.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/Image_000017-16.jpg.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 8:40pm
Bajo el dispersómetro ha perdido totalmente la circulación cerrada, mi apreciación es que será degradada a OT, veremos:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/c-14.jpg) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/c-14.jpg.html)
Sin embargo persiste la convección afectando principalmente a Puerto Rico:
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/b-21.gif) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/b-21.gif.html)
(http://i17.photobucket.com/albums/b74/eparra74/a-21.gif) (http://s17.photobucket.com/user/eparra74/media/a-21.gif.html)
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Hora local de Caracas 9:25pm
AL, 07, 2013090600, , BEST, 0, 188N, 684W, 25, 1010, DB
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Declaro oficialmente la temporada 2013 como una castaña :P
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Declaro oficialmente la temporada 2013 como una castaña :P
:DDD :DDD :DDD :DDD
Algo se nos escapa, tío, porque esto no es normal ??? ??? ???
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GABRIELLE podría estar reorganizandose.... Imagen guardada por Sandy Delgado.
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100 usando Tapatalk 2
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Ni dios sabe lo que está pasando.
Enviado desde mi Lumia 920 con Tapatalk
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Parece que solo fue un amago... la convección se viene abajo, y el vórtice ese desaparece...
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No le dan mucha vidilla a EX-GABRIELLE, pero ahí sigue luchando......... Y esta tarde luciendo un aspecto medio decente con permiso de la cizalladura que le anda golpeando duro...
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/63689/GOES19152013252wIN2vV_afz6.jpg)
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Welcome back, GABRIELLE! !!! :P
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100 usando Tapatalk 2
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Se regenera y activos avisos por tormenta tropical en Bermuda
Enviado desde mi GT-N7100 usando Tapatalk 2
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Ya lo decía ayer......... y es que el tramo final de la temporada tiene muchas sorpresas que dar aún...
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BTyvN6VCIAA7GJd.gif:large)
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Resurge de sus remanentes y va rumbo a Bermuda, con afectaciones de tormenta tropical antes de ser embebido por ese frente frio al NE:
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...30.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric013/a.jpg) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric013/a.jpg.html)
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric013/b.gif) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric013/b.gif.html)
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GABRIELLE está dando muchos quebraderos de cabeza a los meteorólogos del CNH, ya que tras su degradación a depresión tropical... hoy ha vuelto a reactivarse la convección obligándolos a actualizarla de nuevo como tormenta tropical :DDD :DDD :DDD
Al final esta temporada está teniendo sus curiosidades y todo, como cabía esperar por otra parte :D1
000
WTNT42 KNHC 121432
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013
...GABRIELLE REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
CENTER AND THE CONVECTION...AND THE PRESENCE OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND TO THE EAST...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE WINDS ARE UP TO 35
KNOTS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AND CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE REMOVED AGAIN. ON THAT
BASIS...GABRIELLE COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 33.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 35.0N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 38.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 43.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Histórico completo:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BT-GGHwCMAAfthp.gif:large)
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Hora local de Caracas 9:55pm
Se mantiene como una incipiente tormenta, apenas cumple los mínimos pero solo por la velocidad del viento, convección nada:
AL, 07, 2013091300, , BEST, 0, 347N, 681W, 35, 1008, TS,
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/eyestormeric021/d.jpg) (http://s816.photobucket.com/user/eyestormeric/media/eyestormeric021/d.jpg.html)