Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eyestorm_Eric en Agosto 14, 2011, 05:18:12 am
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Hora local de Caracas 22:45pm
La INV94L es ascendida a Depresión tropical denominada 07L. Activados avisos de tormenta tropical para Bermuda. En la siguiente imágen se observa escoltada por la INV92L:
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/f.jpg)
Sumario
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...27.9N 61.6W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES
PD: Con el permiso de ustedes abro nuevamente un tópico. Es que coincide cuando ustedes estan durmiendo ehhh ;D ;D
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Carrusel ciclónico, Eric :o :o :o :o :o
:D1 :D1 :D1 :D1 Y puede coger bastante fuelle ;)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 140240
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION AROUND A TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT...AND BASED ON THESE
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE
WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD
BY 36 HR AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES BY 72 HR.
THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE FORECAST BEING
A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODEL FORECASTS. A POTENTIAL
COMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHOWN BY THE UKMET MODEL...
WHICH FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO EXPERIENCE ERRATIC MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ABOUT
400 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF SUCH INTERACTION OCCURS...IT WOULD
DELAY THE APPROACH OF THE DEPRESSION TO BERMUDA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE SYSTEMS ARE HELPING TO
PRODUCE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION...
A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ARE
APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HR TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT...
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATER. AFTER 72 HR...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 27.9N 61.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 30.1N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Ya tenemos a GERT :D1
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141753
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
200 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...28.6N 63.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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Guau! Menuda temporada de Tormentas Tropicales, crecen como setas.
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Y se está haciendo fuerte :D1
000
WTNT42 KNHC 142041
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM GERT AND SMALL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALONG WITH UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF 39 AND
41 KT. THE SFMR WINDS CORRELATE WELL WITH AN EARLIER 1324Z ASCAT
PASS THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 40 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE RECENT SFMR WINDS AND
EARLIER ASCAT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.
NOW THAT GERT HAS REDEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
HAS BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL STORM HAS
STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 335/07...TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING EASTWARD OVER AND NORTH OF
BERMUDA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD BACK WESTWARD AND CREATE
SOME STAIR-STEP MOTIONS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH.
HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVING
STEADILY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS
A RESULT... THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
STEER GERT NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN
ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY
PACKED GLOBAL MODEL SUITE.
GERT HAS MOVED INTO A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO
PERSIST AND PRODUCE A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM.
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...ALONG WITH WARM SSTS ABOVE
28C...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OT SO. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING. AFTER
THAT...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING EVEN
THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW. BY 48
HOURS...GERT WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30 KT.
THIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE GERT TO MAKE THE TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 28.9N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 30.3N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 32.3N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 34.9N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 38.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 46.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Guau! Menuda temporada de Tormentas Tropicales, crecen como setas.
Cierto es, pero pocas pasan a huracan.
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Hora local de Caracas 10pm
Pinta actual de Gert, muy pobre
(http://i816.photobucket.com/albums/zz81/eyestormeric/c-5.jpg)
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De hecho, el CNH ya comenta que ha iniciado el inexorable camino del debilitamiento, por aguas más frías y cizalladura en aumento, que está inclinando el centro del ciclón en la vertical hacia el noreste...
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Último aviso del NHC para GERT.
...GERT DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...
THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
07L.GERT.35kts.1010mb.38.6N.55.9W
(http://img842.imageshack.us/img842/5076/avnh.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/842/avnh.jpg/)