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Autor Tema: Huracan GERT 08L categoria 2, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017  (Leído 8555 veces)

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 140233
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Gert continues to gradually become better organized on satellite
imagery.  A large curved band feature has formed in the eastern
semicircle, with very deep convection.  It still appears the center
is on the northwest side of the convection, somewhat displaced to
the north of the mid-level center.  Intensity estimates are a little
higher than the last advisory, so the wind speed is raised to 40 kt.
Gert should remain in a light-to-moderate northerly wind shear
environment for the next couple of days, with anomalously warm SSTs
and increasing mid-level moisture in the forecast path.  Almost all
of the historically reliable guidance now show Gert becoming a
hurricane in a couple of days under these moderately favorable
conditions, and so does the official forecast. The latest NHC
prediction is raised from the previous one but remains below the
model consensus, closest to the LGEM model.  Gert should rapidly
weaken as it undergoes extratropical transition in 3-4 days over the
cold north Atlantic waters.

Gert is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt on the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge.  A northward turn is expected
on Monday while the system rounds the western side of the ridge, and
Gert is expected to be about midway between Bermuda and North
Carolina on Tuesday.  After that time, a progressively faster motion
to the northeast and east-northeast is forecast as the system
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates
in about 5 days.  The guidance has shifted a little bit to the west
after recurvature, so the official forecast is moved in that
direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 28.8N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 30.0N  72.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 31.6N  72.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 33.6N  71.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 36.0N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 41.0N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

 96H  18/0000Z 48.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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NHC Atlantic Ops‏Cuenta verificada @NHC_Atlantic  26 minHace 26 minutos
 #Gert is now forecast to become a #hurricane while it recurves away from the United States in a couple of days. http://hurricanes.gov


https://twitter.com/DanLindsey77/status/896847679053058052
« Última modificación: Agosto 17, 2017, 13:07:03 pm por Gale »

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Re:Tormenta tropical GERT 08L, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #1 en: Agosto 14, 2017, 20:08:49 pm »
#GERT, llamado a ser el segundo #huracán de la temporada de 2017 en el Atlántico #CiclonesTropicales2017 http://lsh.re/1I713

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Re:Tormenta tropical GERT 08L, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #2 en: Agosto 14, 2017, 20:09:52 pm »
Atentos... que puede dar la campanada...

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Michael Ventrice‏Cuenta verificada @MJVentrice  30 minHace 30 minutos
 Possible rapid intensification of #Gert taking place; Now has a robust eye with two vortical hot towers cyclonically rotating around the eye

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Re:Tormenta tropical GERT 08L, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #3 en: Agosto 14, 2017, 23:35:25 pm »
GERT casi es un huracán, pero según el NHC, todavía no...

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 142047
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

The satellite presentation of Gert has continued to improve today.
Convective banding has increased around the center, and a large
banded eye has appeared in recent visible satellite pictures.

Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS supported
an intensity of around 55 kt at 18z, but due to the continued
increase in organization, the initial wind speed is set at 60 kt
for this advisory. Although there is some light northerly shear
over the system, it should not prevent additional strengthening
during the next day or so while Gert remains over SSTs of 28 to
29 deg C.  Gert is expected to become a hurricane within 12 hours,
and the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a bit higher peak
intensity than before.  The NHC forecast is a little above the
statistical guidance and calls for peak intensity a little sooner
than most of the guidance.  The HWRF continues to be very bullish
in bringing the system to major hurricane status, but since it
shows peak intensity well after the system is expected to encounter
westerly shear and cooler SSTs, less weight has been placed on that
scenario.  Gert is expected to complete extratropical transition
within 72 hours, then gradually weaken over the North Atlantic
before it merges with a larger extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.

Gert has been moving more slowly than expected today while it has
been rounding the western portion of the ridge.  The storm is
expected to turn north-northeastward and begin to accelerate
Tuesday ahead of a shortwave trough approaching the northeastern
United States.  The track guidance continues to be in excellent
agreement, but is generally slower than before.  As a result, little
cross-track change was required in the NHC track through 72 h, but
the new forecast is slower than the previous one to account for the
latest trend in the latest guidance.

Swells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days.
These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 30.6N  72.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 31.6N  72.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 33.3N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 35.6N  69.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 38.0N  64.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 44.5N  48.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  18/1800Z 52.0N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 1, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #4 en: Agosto 15, 2017, 10:55:42 am »
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 150833
TCDAT3

Hurricane Gert Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

After a period of intensification several hours ago, recent
satellite images show that the cloud pattern has deteriorated a
little bit.
The eye is no longer discernible, and the center is now
located to the west of an area of very deep convection. Dvorak
numbers still support an initial intensity of 65 kt.  Gert has an
opportunity to gather some strength in the next day or so after
recurvature. The new NHC forecast is not as aggressive as the
previous one, and it follows very closely the intensity consensus.
Only the HWRF model significantly strengthens the cyclone. After two
days, Gert will be completely embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies and should become a post-tropical cyclone
.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 360
degrees at 10 kt. Gert is being steered northward by the flow around
the western edge of the subtropical ridge. The cyclone should then
turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed later today
as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the
tight guidance envelope.

Swells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days.
These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local National
Weather Service office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 31.8N  72.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 33.3N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 35.5N  68.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 37.8N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  17/0600Z 40.0N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 46.5N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/0600Z 52.0N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila




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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 1, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #5 en: Agosto 15, 2017, 12:24:20 pm »
Radiografía del huracán GERT que muestra que conserva una estructura interna decente, a pesar de que su nubosidad se ha degradado algo tras alcanzar la intensidad de huracán...


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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 1, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #6 en: Agosto 15, 2017, 12:48:46 pm »
El ciclón #Gert ya es huracan #Cat1 con vientos de 120 Km/h






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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 1, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #7 en: Agosto 16, 2017, 13:33:27 pm »
El ciclón #Gert continua intensificándose dentro de su #Cat1 con vientos de 150 Km/h
Tenemos también a la vista 3 formaciones en desarrollo...a ver que sucede








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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 1, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #8 en: Agosto 16, 2017, 13:46:48 pm »
Gracias por tu actualización, CIEM ;D ;D ;D Visualmente, no es demasiado espectacular, salvo su apariencia similar a la de un ammonites fosilizado... pero nos está dando entretenimiento.

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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 1, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #9 en: Agosto 16, 2017, 15:54:20 pm »
Wow... la evolución en las últimas 24 horas es impresionante, vista a través de imágenes de microondas...


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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 1, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #10 en: Agosto 16, 2017, 18:08:31 pm »
¿Qué decir de la última imagen del visible? Es espectacular!! Yo creo que está ejecutando un proceso de RI...


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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 1, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #11 en: Agosto 16, 2017, 22:28:13 pm »
Me ha encantado esta imagen de #Gert de las 17:00 horas con su ojo bien definido


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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 2, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #12 en: Agosto 17, 2017, 13:07:30 pm »
Durante la madrugada su intensidad fue elevada a categoría 2 en la escala de Saffir Simpson... Quizás conservativamente, pero bueno...

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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 2, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #13 en: Agosto 17, 2017, 13:09:25 pm »
Vientos máximos de 105 mph, el huracán más intenso por encima del paralelo 40ºN desde ALEX de la temporada de 2004:

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Philip Klotzbach‏Cuenta verificada @philklotzbach  7 hHace 7 horas
 Hurricane #Gert now has max winds of 105 mph - the strongest August hurricane north of 40°N since Alex (2004).

Pinchar en el enlace del tuit para ver animación del huracán:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/898033261376528384

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Re:Huracan GERT 08L categoria 2, Atlántico Occidental, Agosto 2017
« Respuesta #14 en: Agosto 17, 2017, 14:00:50 pm »
El #huracán #Gert ha entrado ya en decadencia, por la alta cizalladura del viento y por estar abandonando aguas cálidas


 



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