HARVEY podría nacer de esta depresión...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 190255
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET INDICATED
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRM THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A RECENT 0134Z SSMIS
PASS EVEN HAS A WEAK RING FEATURE IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SIGNIFICANT 24H PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 TO 4 MB HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
AT BUOY 42057...WHICH HAVE LONG BEEN A HALLMARK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.  DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...IN
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE DATA...SUPPORT ADVISORIES BEING INITIATED ON
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A PEAK 1-MIN WIND OF 27 KT FROM THE BUOY
AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.
ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM IS TO
LAND...IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT STRENGTHEN
AT ALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE GFDL FORECAST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BEING CONSIDERED AN UNLIKELY
SOLUTION.  THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 15.4N  82.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 15.5N  83.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 15.7N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  20/1200Z 15.9N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  21/0000Z 16.2N  88.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 17.0N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

Pues es la 8ª tormenta tropical consecutiva, lo cual seguramente supera al récord anterior de 7, jejeje.

Ósperas cómo han subido las perspectivas del CNH sobre esta tormenta Ahora no se descarta que incluso pueda alcanzar el estatus de huracán!

000
WTNT43 KNHC 192043
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 1800 UTC AND IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF 40 KT.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO REACH THE STORM NEAR 00Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/10. THERE IS NO
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. ONE CHANGE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY IS THAT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BRINGING THE CENTER BRIEFLY OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS.

CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE SUGGEST HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL IN BELIZE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT NEAR LANDFALL IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THERE
ARE TWO NOTES ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  FIRST...THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
INTENSITY PROBABILITIES TABLE SHOWS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF HARVEY
BEING A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.  SECOND...THE INTENSITIES LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT IF THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER OUT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 16.5N  84.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 16.7N  86.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 17.1N  87.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 17.6N  89.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/1800Z 18.0N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  22/1800Z 18.5N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 :O* :O* :O* :O* :O* :O* :O*

En 1 dia, se ha puesto maja Harvey... es posible que llegue a huracan sino toca tierra antes

Siguen subiendo las espectativas del CNH sobre HARVEY. Ahora es más probable que alcance la categoría de huracán antes de su impacto en Belize

00
WTNT43 KNHC 200253
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
EVENING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES AND REQUIRED A RELOCATION ON THE 0000 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. A
DROPSONDE THAT JUST MISSED THE CENTER MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 997 MB WITH 32 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS AROUND 994 MB... A DROP OF ABOUT 11 MB SINCE THIS
MORNING.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  HARVEY WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM
WATER AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.  THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT HARVEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND
BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF
THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AND HARVEY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8...A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...
THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE SOUTHEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.  THIS REQUIRED A
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 16.2N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 16.4N  86.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 16.8N  88.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1200Z 17.3N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  22/0000Z 17.7N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  23/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

Ahora se ve extremadamente bien. No me sorprendería si el avión cazahuracanes logra encontrar una tormenta con vientos de 60 kts o más... 

HARVEY sigue viva, y muy viva Menudos borbotones convectivos muestra la última imagen del sat... Y es que pareciera que está consiguiendo atrapar energía del GOM!



Y ahora que leo el último boletín de discusión........ Estoy en lo cierto Y es que el centro del ciclón en niveles bajos ha emergido en la bahía de Campeche, más al norte de lo que se esperaba, por lo que podría tener en estos momentos recuperada la categoría de tormenta tropical Tenaz HARVEY!

000
WTNT43 KNHC 212044
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE...FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY.  NOW THAT THE CENTER IS BACK
OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED.  THEREFORE...THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS HARVEY STRENGTHENING BACK TO A TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.  THE TRACK
SHOULD BEND A BIT MORE TO LEFT BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AS HARVEY MOVES UNDERNEATH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION
AND REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THIS FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF MEXICAN COAST BORDERING THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 18.6N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 19.0N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 19.3N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  23/0600Z 19.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN