Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Septiembre 06, 2010, 10:01:06 am
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Ya se han iniciado los avisos sobre esta depresión tropical, que tiene origen en la depresión tropical 11E que se formaba hace unos días en la Cuenca del Pacífico Este... Tiene papeletas para alcanzar fuerza de tormenta tropical y recibir el nombre de HERMINE ;)
000
WTNT45 KNHC 060251
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010
THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE
LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.7N 95.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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Creo que ya tenemos a HERMINE en marcha. Hay varios productos, como el de probabilidad de formación de ciclón tropical, que ya están usando el símbolo de TT para referirse a este sistema, con lo que parece que este ciclón se está desarrollando de forma explosiva... :-X :-X :-X :-X
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al102010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009060640
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
TEN, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2010, TS, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102010
AL, 10, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 195N, 957W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 200N, 955W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 951W, 30, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 20, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, S,
AL, 10, 2010090606, , BEST, 0, 211N, 948W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M,
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Guau... impresionante progresión, creo que nadie lo esperaba
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Guau... impresionante progresión, creo que nadie lo esperaba
Yo sí 8) Esta tormenta se ha formado a partir de la depresión 11E del Pacífico Este... En cuanto vi que se iba a mover dentro del GOM hice el comentario de ponerle un ojo encima :D1
000
WTNT45 KNHC 060854
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES.
ASCAT...WHICH HAS A WELL DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS...REVEALED SEVERAL
30-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND
NOAA BUOY 42055 HAS REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
30 AND 35 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE EIGHTH OF THE
2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LANDFALL. AS
A RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD WHICH HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK
FORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED OF HERMINE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A FASTER
MOTION THAN THE GFDL/HWRF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FORWARD MOTION OF
THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE
OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0900Z 21.6N 95.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 22.9N 95.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.9N 97.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.8N 98.4W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.8N 99.7W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 09/0600Z 33.2N 99.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Estas tormentas en el GOM son auténticas bombas... Veremos a ver si no le dará tiempo de convertirse en huracán antes de tomar tierra. Según ese boletín de discusión, le quedan al menos 24 horas de estar sobre el agua calentita...
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Vaya convección que arrojan las primeras imágenes del visible para HERMINE :o :o :o :o :o Desde luego, aunque no se refuerce mucho en cuanto a organización y/o velocidad del viento, la potencia de esa convección tiene mucho potencial para hacer daño allá por donde pase... Adjunto la última imagen:
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La imagen en microondas es muy explícita... Parece que la tormenta está intentando construir un eyewall :-X :-X :-X
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Esto es lo que "dice" la composición de imágenes de radar, by wunderground:
(http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/1830/at201010radar.gif)
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Estaba claro que la actualización de productos sobre HERMINE iba a traer sorpresas... Ahora los pronósticos elevan el pico de intensidad justo por debajo de la categoría de huracán ::) Esta tarde un avión cazahuracanes va a salir a investigar a HERMINE y, como éste siga con esa progresión, seguro que se van a llevar una sorpresa. No es para menos, se han decretado vigilancias por huracán en la costa sur de Texas, por si las moscas :P
000
WTNT45 KNHC 061431
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
HERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
HERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. HERMINE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN EXPECTED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.4N 95.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 24.9N 96.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 27.0N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/0000Z 29.1N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/1200Z 36.0N 99.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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El aspecto de HERMINE no parece tan redondeado como en la última imagen que posteé... La convección no es tan "burra", aunque sigue siendo muy potente, y se aprecian muchas bandas convectivas que se internan en el centro de la tormenta. Quizá la proximidad con tierra es lo que esté evitando su transformación en huracán, y puede que sea lo que evite que esto ocurra finalmente. El avión cazahuracanes ha partido hacia HERMINE, aunque en los datos que se puede ver, es como si hubiera dado la vuelta antes de llegar ??? ??? Esperaremos a que pase más rato, a ver si se trata de algún tipo de maniobra especial.
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Hora local de Caracas 12:25 pm
Vaya brinco en 24 horas. Cero que si alcanzará CAT1 como huracán. Adjunto webcam de South Padre al sur de Texas e imagen visible para la hora
(http://www.spadre.com/southpadrebeachcam.jpg)
fuente: http://www.spadre.com/southpadrebeachcam.jpg (http://www.spadre.com/southpadrebeachcam.jpg)
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Aviso intermedio 3A
000
WTNT35 KNHC 061732
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT HEADS FOR THE WESTERN
GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
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HERMINE está muy muy muy cerca de la costa.......... :o :o :o :o Aun así, el aspecto que presenta es impresionante. Vaya progresión que ha tenido esta tormenta. Y es que el GOM es una fábrica de bombas ciclónicas, terreno abonado para que explote cualquier germen ciclónico que entre, si no hay cizalladura que lo impida.
La siguiente imagen, la última en canal visible disponible, es impresionante :-X :-X :-X :-X
(http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/8003/2010al101kmsrvis2010090.gif)
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Y ahora una animación (2 megas) del canal de vapor de agua:
(http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/3866/aoi1wvloopher.gif)
Crédito: LSU/ESL
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el domingo que viene estare por esos lares
1 semana en el DF y otra semana en playa del carmen..... ya me ire informando desde mi iphone sobre la posible llegada de huracanes mirando por aqui :D
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Estos ciclones tropicales en el GOM siempre son super interesantes... Vaya pasada este HERMINE. El avión cazahuracanes ha encontrado vientos de 47 KT, según la última actualización de datos del CNH, de modo que han establecido su intensidad en 50 KT. Sigue muy próximo a la costa, y se espera que toque tierra muy pronto, porque se está moviendo más rápido de lo estimado inicialmente. Sin embargo, a pesar de todo esto, se sigue intuyendo la existencia de un eyewall, o al menos que el ciclón sigue intentando construirlo, pero ya le queda muy poco tiempo para conseguir consolidarlo. Adjunto dos imágenes muy reveladoras, de lluvia y de microondas...
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 062038
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010
LATEST AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION OF HERMINE IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 330/13. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. HERMINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST AND SHOWS THE CENTER
CROSSING THE COAST EARLIER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND MAXIMUM
SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS OF 47 KT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.
BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN EYE...BUT THE EYEWALL
IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THE LATEST
TRACK FORECAST...THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR HERMINE TO
INTENSIFY BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE
LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/2100Z 24.5N 97.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 26.2N 98.3W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/0600Z 30.7N 100.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1800Z 33.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/1800Z 38.0N 98.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
Adjunto la última imagen del visible, cuando por aquellos lares ya se está poniendo el sol y pasando a ser de noche. Suerte con ese viaje DAD... Esperamos tus observaciones!
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Se acaban de actualizar los datos:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.1 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE...AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
En resumen, que HERMINE ha seguido intensificándose, y se encuentra muy cerca de la categoría de huracán. Impactará el centro esta noche en la costa noreste de México.
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La animación de imágenes del radar, de wunderground, impresionante... He modificado la velocidad de la misma para que se observen mejor las distintas particularidades:
(http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/3687/at201010radarher.gif)
Cuando nos levantemos por la mañana, ya nos habremos perdido el impacto en tierra...
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HERMINE ya ha entrado en tierra, perdiendo potencia, pero originando lluvias diluviales :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X :-X
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
03 GMT 09/06/10 20.7N 95.2W 30 1003 Tropical Depression
09 GMT 09/06/10 21.6N 95.0W 40 1001 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/06/10 23.4N 95.8W 50 998 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/06/10 24.5N 97.0W 60 992 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/07/10 25.5N 97.5W 60 991 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/07/10 27.0N 98.0W 50 993 Tropical Storm
000
WTNT45 KNHC 070850
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
THE CENTER OF HERMINE MOVED THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND PRODUCED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND
GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT SEVERAL REPORTING SITES. THE
HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED IN THE INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH OF THE
CENTER WERE 48 KT WITH A GUST TO 63 KT...OCCURRING AT VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN HARLINGEN TEXAS AROUND 0600 UTC. SINCE
THAT TIME...THE BAND OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. THE GUST FACTOR IS BEING HELD A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM
DECAY OVER LAND AND SHOWS HERMINE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
ABSORBED BY A WARM FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HOURS.
HERMINE HAS BEEN MOVING JUST A LITTLE EAST OF...AND FASTER THAN...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT 340/15. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS
NOT CHANGED...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS. HERMINE WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA IN
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION OF
THE STORM BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THEREAFTER.
AS HERMINE WEAKENS TODAY...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 27.0N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 07/1800Z 28.7N 99.0W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/0600Z 30.9N 100.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/1800Z 33.3N 100.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 09/0600Z 36.1N 99.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
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Se veía venir............ HERMINE ha provocado inundaciones muy extensas y dañinas en México. Las imágenes que han salido en las noticias en TV lo ponen bien de manifiesto... Ahora veremos los efectos en Texas, ya en territorio americano. Adjunto última imagen, ya visible, del ciclón:
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Es increíble... la imagen del radar sigue mostrando una estructura a modo de ojo para HERMINE... :o :o :o :o :o :o
La adjunto con el attach (sólo se puede ver la imagen siendo usuario registrado e iniciando sesión en el foro):
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La de tiempo que lleva HERMINE en tierra, y el aspecto que todavía presenta :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
(http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/1517/hermine070910.jpg)
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Ya ha desaparecido del mapa de alertas del NOAA