000WTNT41 KNHC 030842TCDAT1TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JERRY EARLY THIS MORNING.HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING ITSELF...PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THECYCLONE. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAKINTENSITY NUMBERS TO DROP FURTHER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITYIS KEPT AT 30 KT...BASED PRIMARILY UPON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY.INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLERWATERS...AS WELL A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PATHOF THE STORM SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEWDAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...AND THERE IS SOMECHANCE OF THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AS A TROUGH WITHIN TWO DAYS ASINDICATED BY THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST ISSLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE BULK OF THE INTENSITYGUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS.THE HEADING OF THE STORM IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT THEFORWARD MOTION IS A BIT FASTER. A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF FIXESSTILL YIELDS A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION ESTIMATE OF 050/08. JERRYSHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEADOF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAYOR SO. THE TRACK OF JERRY SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEASTAND DECELERATE ONCE IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND MOVES INBETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE LOWPRESSURE AREA NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACKREPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLOWER THAN THEGFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORTEX.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 03/0900Z 30.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 31.3N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 32.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 33.4N 34.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 34.4N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 37.5N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN