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Autor Tema: Tifón JONGDARI 15W cat-1, Pacífico Noroeste, posible impacto Japón  (Leído 2172 veces)

Desconectado Gale

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Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com
@RyanMaue

Jongdari is intensifying steadily and will head North & then NW into Japan by Sunday.  Could retain its strength more so than usual b/c of warmer than normal Ocean Temps off Japan coast. 

Satellite loop:  https://weather.us/satellite/1413-e-263-n/top-alert-10min.html#play2



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Philippe Papin
@pppapin

En respuesta a @iCyclone
Climo may yet win out... though when the #ECMWF shows something like this only 84hrs out, I tend to pay a bit closer attention (especially now since a lot of its high intensity false alarms have been reduced by including ocean coupling in the deterministic run).


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Weather Mizumoto
@hepomodeler

#Jongdari 996hPa W40/G60kt at 09z - It'll make a close approach to Kanto region on Sat with strong intensity 975hpa W65/G95kt. high SST supports the development. #japanwx


« Última modificación: Julio 26, 2018, 20:26:40 pm por Gale »

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Re:Tifón JONGDARI 15W cat-1, Pacífico Noroeste, posible impacto Japón
« Respuesta #1 en: Julio 26, 2018, 20:29:13 pm »
Alta certidumbre en cuanto al impacto del tifón en Japón. Interacción con una baja en altura, Efecto Fujiwara, y pronóstico de lluvias potencialmente catastróficas, tras el reciente precedente de hace pocas semanas.


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Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice

Quite the track for Jongdari over the Northwest Pacific. It's not often you see a tropical cyclone track to the northeast, and then make a hard turn northwest prior to landfall. Taking the "Sandy-hook" route here. Note the ECMWF predicted intensities are to "Typhoon" intensity.


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Steve Bowen
@SteveBowenWx

Latest HWRF forecast rain swath from #Jongdari brings several inches to western/southern #Japan, including spots still assessing damage from early July floods. That event eft at least 229 dead/missing, 368 injured, and 43,077+ structures damaged.

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Re:Tifón JONGDARI 15W cat-1, Pacífico Noroeste, impacto Japón
« Respuesta #2 en: Julio 28, 2018, 10:19:06 am »
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Philippe Papin
@pppapin

En respuesta a @iCyclone
Looks like the inner core recovered some before degrading again before landfall. The models were too aggressive, but a 85 knot typhoon at 34N/140E is still fairly unusual. Probably will weaken to a strong cat 1 before landfall though.

 



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