Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 2...CorrectedNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0520181100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018Convection associated with the subtropical cyclone became betterorganized after the release of the previous advisory, butcloud tops have warmed recently with the convection becomingsomewhat fragmented. An Hebert-Poteat subtropical classification ofT2.5 from TAFB suggests that they system is producing gale-forcewinds, and recent scatterometer data that passed over the fareastern portion of the circulation revealed 30-kt winds. Since theinstrument missed the radius of maximum winds, it is assumed thatstronger winds exist over the eastern portion of the circulation,and the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the systema subtropical storm.Ernesto has about 24 hours over marginally warm SSTs and in a low-shear environment in which to strengthen. After that time, thecyclone will be moving over much colder water which should cause itto become post-tropical within 48 hours. The post-tropical cycloneis forecast to merge with a frontal zone associated with a largerextratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.The cyclone is moving northward at about 6 kt. A mid-level troughthat is moving off the east coast of the United States should causeErnesto to turn north-northeastward later today, and the cyclone isforecast to accelerate northeastward by late Thursday as it becomesembedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical modelguidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new NHC trackforecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 15/1500Z 38.1N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.3N 45.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 43.6N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 46.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 18/1200Z 52.3N 21.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW$$Forecaster Brown