Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Septiembre 26, 2008, 09:17:55 am
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"Aforementioned cut-off process at ~35°N/35°W during the next few days has chances for structural changes as this feature resides over a pool of anomalous warm SSTs (positive anomaly of more than 1.5°C). Relaxing shear and a time-frame of a few days for organisation could be enough for gaining subtropical characteristics. No direct impact for the European weather expected so further notification either by the appropriate agency (NHC), or by sporadic side-notes in upcoming outlooks."
No sé muy bien a qué baja presión se refiere, si a la que ya hay cerca de Madeira, o a la borrasca que acompaña a la intensa vaguada que tiene a profundizar en latitud, justo encima de la primera.
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La borrasca sigue su proceso de aislamiento............ Los diagramas de fase en los distintos modelos indican un "caldeamiento" del núcleo de la perturbación, si bien sería poco profundo. Vamos a ver si se hace efectiva esa posible transición subtropical o tropical.............. Fijáos:
(http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/9717/22phase1di5.png)
(http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/7389/28phase1le0.png)
Y la imagen de infrarrojo de esta mañana a las 6 UTC:
(http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/5140/perttj0.jpg)
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3. A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERNMOST AZORES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Que buen ojo tienes, Gale.
El NHC ya lo tiene en seguimiento.
(http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/7233/twoatljz2.gif)
(http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/4527/twoatlxn8.gif)
3. A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERNMOST AZORES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area3#contents
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Lo han quitado ya del seguimiento... Sí que se han echado otra cuenta rápido :P
(http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/9934/nontropicalnl4.jpg)
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El NHC eleva la posibilidad de formacion a Naranja. Ahora parece ser un sistema subtropical que extratropical....
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THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
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Esto es una maravilla es normal que se forme esto en el norte? o me confundo de sistema?
(http://img360.imageshack.us/img360/2392/huracanhp0.jpg)
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Os pongo otra imagen
(http://img60.imageshack.us/img60/6656/alamoim2.gif)
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Ahí la tenemos............... Con pocos cambios de momento...
(http://img363.imageshack.us/img363/2406/95l2lm4.jpg)
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Interesante nota de ESTOFEX, que no me puedo resistir a poner antes de retirarme a dormir:
***Additional information***
Development of an intense surface depression at ~ 40°N/40°W is on track with latest pressure estimation of 994hPa. QuikSCAT has uncontaminated flags of 30-40kt along its southern quadrant but no additional data available. Latest WV animation has strongest convection in N/W quadrant, but agree with models, which keep this feature extratropical for at least the forecast period. Rising geopotential heights NE of this depression will induce a southwesterly drift over SSTs of 26°C during the next few days. Relaxing shear and some days left over this anomalous warm pool of water should support a transition to a sub-/ or even tropical cyclone before the next trough approaches from the west. Again no direct impact for Europe is expected, so further notification from the appropriate agency (e.g. NHC) if development occurs.
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 290840
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2008
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -70C HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE AND HAS STARTED WRAPPING AROUND AND VERY NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 775 NMI
WEST OF THE WESTERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER NOW FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
SUBTROPICAL STORM. THE 06Z SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS
ST3.0/45 KT...BUT USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM
YIELDS NEARLY EIGHT TENTHS BANDING...OR T3.5/55 KT. SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 50 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A FEW
50-KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN A 28/2133Z
QUIKSCAT HI-RES OVERPASS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT
OVERPASS... CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY AND IS NOW THE SOLID
BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND ACCELERATING AS THE INCIPIENT
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND GETS
LIFTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS. AFTER
REACHING THE HIGHER LATITUDES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...LAURA IS FORECAST
TO GET PICKED BY THE FAST WESTERLIES AND MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM.
LAURA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 25C-26C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND ALSO BE UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT
TREND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER CONTINUES...THEN
SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITH A BANDING EYE FEATURE LATER
TODAY. BY 36 HOURS...LAURA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND ICON INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/0900Z 37.2N 47.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 38.0N 48.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 39.8N 48.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 41.7N 48.8W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 01/0600Z 44.0N 48.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 02/0600Z 51.5N 44.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/0600Z 58.0N 34.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/0600Z 57.0N 21.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
No hay que perder de vista a esta tormenta, pues podría ser un caso de libro de transición tropical:
BORRASCA FRÍA AISLADA --> CICLÓN SUBTROPICAL --> CICLÓN TROPICAL
Qué maravilla!
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Ahí tenemos a LAURA, queriendo progresar como sistema tropical y completar la transición... Veremos si lo consigue antes de que se vea atrapada por el jet stream polar y vuelva a extratropicalizarse. La convección quiere terminar por rodear el centro, y si lo consigue, cosa probable hoy, podríamos ver un paso de tormenta subtropical a huracán de categoría 1. Sería la caña total !
(http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/717/lauravf1.jpg)
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Impresionante! Ahora parece estar formando un ojo. De momento se mantiene con 50 kts y 995 mb...
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Y se está moviendo hacia el NNW, según la animación de las últimas imágenes del satélite....
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Parece que esta ahi mismo jeje
(http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/3424/20080929lauraxu1.jpg) (http://imageshack.us)
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Parece que la convección quiera rodear por fin el centro de la perturbación, aunque no va a tener tiempo de madurar más... Ya está cogiendo carrerilla hacia altas latitudes.
(http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/3227/lauradosti0.jpg)
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LAURA ha consegido completar la transición tropical, al despegarse de la baja en altura, por lo que el Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida la ha designado como tormenta tropical... A tan altas latitudes! Es muy interesante este caso.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 301433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008
WHILE SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX...LAURA CAN NOW BE DESIGNATED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. THE ONE ASPECT WHICH
WAS HOLDING US BACK FROM DECLARING IT TROPICAL WAS THE UPPER LOW
COLLOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME OFFSET AND STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
LAURA...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTINUED TO CONTRACT TO ABOUT 60 NM.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD...BUT THAT IS QUITE
NORMAL FOR HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES DUE TO THE LOWER
TROPOPAUSE. FRANKLY...LAURA NOW LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT BASED ON AN 0827 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS HAS BEEN SHRINKING.
LAURA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD THAT INTENSITY FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO BEFORE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
18C. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THERMAL ADVECTION AROUND
THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE PROMINENT LATER TONIGHT...AND LAURA IS
EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT MIGRATES INTO
THE COLDER AIR MASS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS AND MARGINAL BAROCLINIC
FORCING. THEREAFTER...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING AND AN EXPANSION OF
THE WIND FIELD COULD OCCUR AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW RACES EAST
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BRITISH
ISLES. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT
36-48 HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 41.2N 48.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 42.8N 48.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 45.5N 47.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 02/0000Z 48.7N 45.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/1200Z 51.7N 43.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1200Z 56.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/1200Z 57.0N 19.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/1200Z 58.0N 3.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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Es muy interesante este post pues yo creia que esto solo se daba desde el ecuador de africa y no a latitudes tan altas habra que segurilo a ver como evoluciona
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Interesantísimo este sistema. Se espera que llegue a las islas británicas el sábado con vientos bastantes importantes.
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Esta a punto de entrar en aguas totalmente frias...
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Interesantísimo este sistema. Se espera que llegue a las islas británicas el sábado con vientos bastantes importantes.
Veremos a ver........... Ahora mismo el sistema se está debilitando debido sobre todo a que las aguas sobre las que se empieza a mover no tienen nada que suministrarle al pobre ciclón...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 010233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008
I WAS TEMPTED TO TERMINATE ADVISORIES ON LAURA TONIGHT SINCE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. HOWEVER...LAURA CANNOT BE CALLED A
REMNANT LOW YET AND IT IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL ENOUGH TO BE CALLED
ONE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45
KNOTS. LAURA IS MOVING OVER COLD WATERS AND IS BECOMING INVOLVED
WITH COLD AIR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LAURA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL
IN 12 HOUR OR LESS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE LARGE HOLE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER IS 015 AT 14 KNOTS. LAURA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AHEAD OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT
SHOULD THEN TURN EASTWARD ADVECTED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 43.6N 48.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 45.5N 47.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 02/0000Z 48.5N 45.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 02/1200Z 52.5N 43.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/0000Z 55.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/0000Z 56.5N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/0000Z 56.5N 13.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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CAsi llega a huracan, 15 mas....
Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Laura
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
09 GMT 09/29/08 37.2N 47.3W 60 993 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/29/08 37.4N 47.8W 60 995 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/29/08 38.3N 48.4W 60 995 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 09/30/08 39.0N 48.4W 60 995 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 09/30/08 40.3N 49.0W 60 996 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 09/30/08 41.2N 48.8W 60 996 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 09/30/08 42.3N 48.6W 60 996 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 10/01/08 43.6N 48.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 10/01/08 44.8N 47.6W 45 1001 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 10/01/08 46.5N 46.5W 45 995 Tropical Storm
De todas formas preciosas fotos de satelite. :D
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LAURA ya ha desaparecido, entre las regiones depresionarias que hay en altas latitudes...............................
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Era demasiado bonito para ser verdad :'(