Parece que esta ahi mismo jeje

LAURA ha consegido completar la transición tropical, al despegarse de la baja en altura, por lo que el Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida la ha designado como tormenta tropical... A tan altas latitudes! Es muy interesante este caso.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 301433
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

WHILE SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX...LAURA CAN NOW BE DESIGNATED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS.  THE ONE ASPECT WHICH
WAS HOLDING US BACK FROM DECLARING IT TROPICAL WAS THE UPPER LOW
COLLOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME OFFSET AND STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
LAURA...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTINUED TO CONTRACT TO ABOUT 60 NM.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD...BUT THAT IS QUITE
NORMAL FOR HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES DUE TO THE LOWER
TROPOPAUSE.  FRANKLY...LAURA NOW LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT BASED ON AN 0827 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS HAS BEEN SHRINKING.
LAURA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD THAT INTENSITY FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO BEFORE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
18C.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THERMAL ADVECTION AROUND
THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE PROMINENT LATER TONIGHT...AND LAURA IS
EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT MIGRATES INTO
THE COLDER AIR MASS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS AND MARGINAL BAROCLINIC
FORCING.  THEREAFTER...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING AND AN EXPANSION OF
THE WIND FIELD COULD OCCUR AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW RACES EAST
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BRITISH
ISLES.  EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT
36-48 HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/1500Z 41.2N  48.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 42.8N  48.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 45.5N  47.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 48.7N  45.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 51.7N  43.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 56.0N  35.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 57.0N  19.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     05/1200Z 58.0N   3.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

Interesantísimo este sistema. Se espera que llegue a las islas británicas el sábado con vientos bastantes importantes.

Interesantísimo este sistema. Se espera que llegue a las islas británicas el sábado con vientos bastantes importantes.

Veremos a ver........... Ahora mismo el sistema se está debilitando debido sobre todo a que las aguas sobre las que se empieza a mover no tienen nada que suministrarle al pobre ciclón...

000
WTNT42 KNHC 010233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

I WAS TEMPTED TO TERMINATE ADVISORIES ON LAURA TONIGHT SINCE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. HOWEVER...LAURA CANNOT BE CALLED A
REMNANT LOW YET AND IT IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL ENOUGH TO BE CALLED
ONE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45
KNOTS. LAURA IS MOVING OVER COLD WATERS AND IS BECOMING INVOLVED
WITH COLD AIR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LAURA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL
IN 12 HOUR OR LESS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE LARGE HOLE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CENTER IS 015 AT 14 KNOTS. LAURA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AHEAD OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT
SHOULD THEN TURN EASTWARD ADVECTED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0300Z 43.6N  48.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 45.5N  47.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 48.5N  45.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 52.5N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 55.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 56.5N  27.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 56.5N  13.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

LAURA ya ha desaparecido, entre las regiones depresionarias que hay en altas latitudes...............................