Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Gale en Agosto 11, 2009, 15:58:09 pm
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Me atrae esta cuenca oceánica...
Central North Pacific Names:
List 1
Akoni (ah-KOH-nee)
Ema (EH-mah)
Hone (HOH-neh)
Iona (ee-OH-nah)
Keli (KEH-lee)
Lala (LAH-lah)
Moke (MOH-keh)
Nolo (NOH-loh)
Olana (oh-LAH-nah)
Pena (PEH-nah)
Ulana (oo-LAH-nah)
Wale (WAH-leh)
List 2
Aka (AH-kah)
Ekeka (eh-KEH-kah)
Hene (HEH-neh)
Iolana (ee-OH-lah-nah)
Keoni (keh-ON-ee)
Lino (LEE-noh)
Mele (MEH-leh)
Nona (NOH-nah)
Oliwa (oh-LEE-vah)
Pama (PAH-mah)
Upana (oo-PAH-nah)
Wene (WEH-neh)
List 3
Alika (ah-LEE-kah)
Ele (EH-leh)
Huko (HOO-koh)
Iopa (ee-OH-pah)
Kika (KEE-kah)
Lana (LAH-nah)
Maka (MAH-kah)
Neki (NEH-kee)
Omeka (oh-MEH-kah)
Pewa (PEH-vah)
Unala (oo-NAH-lah)
Wali (WAH-lee)
List 4
Ana (AH-nah)
Ela (EH-lah)
Halola (hah-LOH-lah)
Iune (ee-OO-neh)
Kilo (KEE-lo)
Loke (LOH-keh)
Malia (mah-LEE-ah)
Niala (nee-AH-lah)
Oho (OH-hoh)
Pali (PAH-lee)
Ulika (oo-LEE-kah)
Walaka (wah-LAH-KAH)
Según la lista de nombres según la agencia a la que le corresponde esta cuenca, le corresponde el nombre de MAKA. ;)
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Adjunto boletín del Centro de Huracanes del Pacífico Central:
000
WTPA43 PHFO 111455
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009
I HAVE UPGRADED DEPRESSION ONE-C TO TROPICAL STORM MAKA. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED AND INCREASED IN AREA AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES HAD CI NUMBERS OF 2.0 TO 2.5.
CIMSS ADT AT 0430 UTC GAVE A CI OF 2.2...AND CIMSS AND CIRA AMSU MSW
VALUES RANGED FROM 40 TO 46 KT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
A 1027 MB HIGH LIES ABOUT 1700 MILES NORTH OF MAKA...WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO A COL AROUND 26N 160E.
MAKA SHOULD MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE MODELS SHOW A MUCH GREATER
SPREAD. I EXPECT MAKA TO CURVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
TRACK EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT AT 120 HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE HWRF.
ANY GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WILL KEEP ONE-C OVER 28 DEGREE
CELSIUS SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN IT
WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATER. THE SHEAR FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC.
SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT THERE IS MUCH STRONGER SHEAR FURTHER
NORTH. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WITH MAKA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT 120 HOURS. AS USUAL...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 14.2N 172.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.6N 173.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 175.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.8N 177.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 178.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.1N 178.6E 60 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 20.1N 176.7E 60 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 22.4N 174.5E 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
Parece que tendremos un huracán ¿o es tifón en esta cuenca?.............
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Adjunto boletín del Centro de Huracanes del Pacífico Central:
000
WTPA43 PHFO 111455
TCDCP3
TROPICAL STORM MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009
I HAVE UPGRADED DEPRESSION ONE-C TO TROPICAL STORM MAKA. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED AND INCREASED IN AREA AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES HAD CI NUMBERS OF 2.0 TO 2.5.
CIMSS ADT AT 0430 UTC GAVE A CI OF 2.2...AND CIMSS AND CIRA AMSU MSW
VALUES RANGED FROM 40 TO 46 KT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
A 1027 MB HIGH LIES ABOUT 1700 MILES NORTH OF MAKA...WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO A COL AROUND 26N 160E.
MAKA SHOULD MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE MODELS SHOW A MUCH GREATER
SPREAD. I EXPECT MAKA TO CURVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
TRACK EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT AT 120 HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE HWRF.
ANY GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WILL KEEP ONE-C OVER 28 DEGREE
CELSIUS SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN IT
WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATER. THE SHEAR FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC.
SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT THERE IS MUCH STRONGER SHEAR FURTHER
NORTH. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WITH MAKA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT 120 HOURS. AS USUAL...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 14.2N 172.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.6N 173.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 175.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.8N 177.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 178.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.1N 178.6E 60 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 20.1N 176.7E 60 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 22.4N 174.5E 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
Parece que tendremos un huracán ¿o es tifón en esta cuenca?.............
creo que sera CICLON
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Pues está pasando desapercibido este ciclón, e incluso el Centro de Huracanes del Pacífico Central ya no lo considera, quizás porque se haya salido de su jurisdicción... El caso es que otras agencias, como la NRL, sí que lo ubican en esa cuenca oceánica, como depresión tropical, y ojo, porque va a adentrarse en un área con un OHC bien bueno.
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14/1430 UTC 13.3N 175.1E T2.0/2.0 MAKA -- West Pacific
Bien, efectivamente, ha pasado a la cuenca del Pacífico Oeste ;)
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Curioso este MACA......... Casi desaparece mientras pasaba del Pacífico Central al Pacífico Oeste, se recupera, y ahora es tormenta tropical con previsión de convertirse en tifón :P
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45kts-992mb
(http://fotos.vivito.net/fotosend-1724843756.jpg) (http://fotos.vivito.net/pic-1724843756.html)
estaba previsto que se vuelva a convertir en un cat 1 o cat 2 despues de rodear la islita esa ;D
(http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/6871/200901c6.png) (http://img20.imageshack.us/i/200901c6.png/)
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si sigue la linea recta,va derecho a Tokio