Bien, ya la tenemos aquí............ Vaya, vaya, que tormenta más curiosa! Y si no fuera porque pronto tocará tierra en México por andar cerca de la línea de costa, cogería fuerza con rapidez. Veremos si alcanza el estatus de tormenta tropical antes de hacerlo, y es probable que lo haga. En ese caso tendríamos a MARCO in the way...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 061446
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...INDICATING
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM.
ACCORDINGLY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE
CYCLONE REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ONCE INLAND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 19.0N 94.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 19.4N 95.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 19.6N 96.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 97.4W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
En 24 horas alcanzará su pico de intensidad, previsto en 40 nudos............. algo menos de 80 km/h......... Con alcanzar los 35, tendríamos a MARCO en marcha.
Tema: Tormenta Tropical MARCO 13L (Atlántico - GOM - Bahía de Campeche) (Leído 4574 veces)