000WTNT44 KNHC 300255TCDAT4HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 7NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1420161100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew isstrengthening. The estimated minimum pressure from a dropsondeis 983 mb. The SFMR instrument measured an isolated peak wind of77 kt in the northwest quadrant near the center. However, theflight-level winds measured in this mission so far only support aninitial intensity of 70 kt.The cloud pattern is much better organized than 24 hours ago, anda recent SSMIS pass showed an eye feature. This was confirmed by thecrew onboard the reconnaissance aircraft which reported a circular22 n mi eye open to the south. Images from Curacao radar also showthe center of the cyclone becoming better defined. However, sincesome southwesterly wind shear is still affecting the cyclone, only aslight strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.After that time, the shear is forecast to relax some, and theoverall environment is expected to be more conducive forintensification. The NHC forecast continues to be above the modelconsensus, and is very similar to the forecast issued by mypredecessor.Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and radar from Curacao indicatethat Matthew is moving toward the west or perhaps just south of duewest at about 12 kt. A strong ridge to the north is forecast to keepMatthew moving westward across the southern portion of the CentralCaribbean for the next 2 days. After that time, Matthew will belocated on the western side of the high and ahead of a mid-latitudetrough over the Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should forcethe cyclone to turn toward the north at about 5 to 7 kt. The NHCtrack forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, which infact has not changed very much today, and does not deviate much fromthe previous forecast.Global models, primarily the GFS and the ECMWF, continue to show astrong hurricane in the vicinity of Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti in 3 or4 days.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/0300Z 14.1N 68.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 70.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 13.9N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 13.8N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 14.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.4N 75.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.7N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH120H 05/0000Z 23.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH$$Forecaster Avila
000WTNT44 KNHC 301449TCDAT4HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 10NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1420161100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016Matthew has continued to intensify this morning. An Air ForceReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a peak SFMR windof 99 kt and a 700-mb wind of 103 kt. The aircraftreported that the central pressure had fallen to 968 mb, and alsoobserved a 16 n mi wide eye that is open to the southwest. Watervapor imagery shows a well-established poleward outflow channel,with outflow also expanding in the southwest quadrant.This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterlyshear of around 20 kt. The SHIPS model output shows this shearcontinuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPSand LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time. Thisweakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricanemodels. However, I am reluctant to show a decrease in intensitygiven that the environment around the cyclone does not appear tochange much. Some short-term fluctuations in intensity arecertainly possible, but the official forecast remains above much ofthe guidance in the short range and keeps the intensity at 100 ktthrough 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due topotential land interaction. Late in the period the NHC forecast isclosest to the HWRF model.Matthew has been moving west-southwestward during the past fewhours, with an initial motion estimate of 255/10. The cycloneshould continue moving south of due west for the next 12 hours tothe south of a mid-level ridge nosing into the northern CaribbeanSea. After that, Matthew should gradually turn poleward as theridge retreats eastward and a trough moves into the eastern Gulf ofMexico. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance,both along and across track. The ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, andthe UKMET are slower and on the right side of the guidance envelopeat 48 hours and beyond. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, HWRF, andCOAMPS-TC are faster and farther to the left. The new NHC trackforecast has been adjusted a little to the south in the first 36hours due to the initial motion, and lies a little south of theconsensus and close to the GFS at this time range. Beyond thattime, the official forecast is an update of the previous one andlies a little to the east of the latest multi-model consensus and abit to the west of the GFS/ECMWF blend.It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecasterrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impactsfrom Matthew in Florida.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 30/1500Z 13.7N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.5N 71.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 13.5N 73.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.8N 74.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.7N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH120H 05/1200Z 25.5N 75.7W 85 KT 100 MPH$$Forecaster Brennan
000WTNT34 KNHC 301733TCPAT4BULLETINHURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016200 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE JUST NORTH OF THE GUAJIRAPENINSULA...SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...13.6N 71.3WABOUT 85 MI...140 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIAABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
Hurricane Hunters @53d_HHA 16 minHace 16 minutos Ver traducciónTeal 71 finding #Matthew a Cat3 this morning from 10,000 ft! #hurricanehunters 📸: ARWO Maj Spusta 🌀☁️🌀
Brenden Moses @Cyclonebiskit 38 minHace 38 minutos Miami, FL Ver traducciónRadar imagery from NOAA aircraft investigating #Matthew (16:47:03Z). NW eyewall very strong, SE still struggling to close off.