Eric Fisher @ericfisher 8 minHace 8 minutos Ver traducciónRecon just found a pressure of 936mb in the eye of #Matthew. Still deepening.
000WTNT44 KNHC 062052TCDAT4HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 35NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane just reached Matthew and measured 121kt at the 700-mb level and a minimum pressure of of 936 mb. Untilthe plane finishes sampling the circulation, the initial intensityis kept at 120 kt. There some indications that an outer eyewall istrying to form, and perhaps an eyewall cycle will occur. If so, someweakening could occur, but there could also be fluctuations inintensity while the hurricane moves toward the east coast of Floridathat are not explicitly shown here. After 24 hours, the combinationof land interaction and a significant increase in the shear shouldcause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to theSHIPS guidance during the next day or so, and it follows the trendof the consensus thereafter.Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still movingtoward the northwest or 325 degrees at 11 kt. The steering flow hasnot changed, and Matthew should continue to move around the westernperiphery of the subtropical ridge located over the western Atlanticduring the next 24 to 36 hours. This portion of the NHC forecast isvery close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, thehurricane will become embedded within the mid-latitude westerliesand should turn sharply eastward for a day or so. Then the steeringpattern is forecast to change again, and the track forecast becomeshighly uncertain. Both the GFS and the ECMWF turn a much weakerMatthew southward and southwestward. The NHC forecast follows thesouthwestward trend, and is in the middle of these two globalmodels.KEY MESSAGES:1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from stormsurge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamastoday, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Floridatonight.2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds willoccur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobilehomes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residentsof high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Windsat the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpsoncategory higher than the winds near the surface.4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallelto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida throughSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts atany one location. Only a small deviation of the trackto the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a majorhurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida andGeorgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of thehurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations inimpacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas innortheast Georgia and South Carolina.5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm SurgeFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics forMatthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm SurgeFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount ofinundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Inaddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extendout only to about 72 hours, it best represents the floodingpotential in those locations within the watch and warning areas inFlorida and Georgia.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 06/2100Z 26.2N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 29.6N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 31.2N 81.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 32.1N 80.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH120H 11/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH$$Forecaster Avila
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 12 minHace 12 minutos Ver traducción#Matthew more symmetric on IR satellite, eye more clear. Intensity at Cat 4, solidly.
Justo me lo han quitado de la boca: parece que se está formando una pared del ojo secundaria, lo cual puede estar anunciando un ciclo de reemplazamiento del ojo a no mucho tardar... Esto lo puede debilitar, pero expandir el campo de vientos...CitarBrian McNoldy @BMcNoldy 3 minHace 3 minutos Ver traducciónTextbook concentric eyewalls... an eyewall replacement cycle can temporarily weaken a storm, but also expand the wind field. #matthew
Brian McNoldy @BMcNoldy 3 minHace 3 minutos Ver traducciónTextbook concentric eyewalls... an eyewall replacement cycle can temporarily weaken a storm, but also expand the wind field. #matthew