TTAA00 TJSJ 281557WKSTC4TORMENTA TROPICAL MATTHEW DISCUSION NUMERO 1SNM CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL142016TRADUCCION POR EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR 1100 AM EDT MIERCOLES 28 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2016OBSERVACIONES DE LA SUPERFICIE Y DATOS DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTODE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICALQUE ATRAVIESA LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO HA ADQUIRIDO UNA CIRCULACIONCERRADA. EL AVION ENCONTRO UN VIENTO EN RAFAGA A NIVEL DE VUELO DE64 NUDOS, Y UN VIENTO SFMR EN LA SUPERFICIE CERCA DE 50 NUDOS SOBRELA PORCION NORTE DE LA CIRCULACION. COMO RESULTADO, ADVERTENCIAS SEHAN INICIADO EN RELACION A UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE 50 NUDOS. LAFALTA ACTUAL DE UNA ESTRUCTURA INTERNA SUGIERE QUE FORTALECIMIENTOADICIONAL DEBERA SER LIMITADO HOY, PERO LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALESCONSISTENTES DE AGUAS CALIDAS Y VIENTOS CORTANTES DEBILES DELANTE DEMATTHEW FAVORECEN ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE EL RESTO DELPERIODO PRONOSTICADO. EL PRONOSTICO DE INTENSIDAD DEL CENTRONACIONAL DE HURACANES ES MAS CONSERVADOR QUE LAS GUIAS ESTADISTICAS,PERO SIGUE LAS TENDENCIAS DE LOS MODELOS GLOBALES EN CUANTO ALFORTALECIMIENTO DEL SISTEMA.YA QUE EL CENTRO SE FORMO RECIENTEMENTE, EL MOVIMIENTO INICIALESTIMADO ES BASTANTE INCIERTO 275/18 NUDOS. UNA ALTA PRESION FUERTESOBRE EL OESTE DEL ATLANTICO DEBERA DIRIGIR A MATTHEW HACIA EL OESTEA TRAVES DEL ESTE DEL CARIBE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS, Y LA GUIA DETRAYECTORIA ESTA ESTRECHADAMENTE AGRUPADA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 72HORAS. DESPUES DE ESTE TIEMPO, EL CICLON TROPICAL SE APROXIMARA A LAPORCION OESTE DE LA ALTA PRESION Y UN GIRO HACIA EL NOROESTE ESESPERADO, AUNQUE EXISTEN DIFERENCIAS SIGNIFICATIVAS ENTRE LOSMODELOS DE TRAYECTORIA EN CUANTO A CUANDO OCURRIRA EL GIRO Y CUANBRUSCO SERA. EL GFS GIRA EL CICLON HACIA EL NOROESTE MUCHO MASRAPIDO QUE EL ECMWF COMO RESULTADO DEL DESARROLLO DE UNA VAGUADASOBRE EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO. POR AHORA, LA TRAYECTORIA DELCENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES SE ENCUENTRA CERCA DEL CONSENSO DE UNGIRO RAPIDO Y LENTO DE LOS MODELOS GFS Y ECMWF, RESPECTIVAMENTE.POSICIONES DE PRONOSTICOS Y VIENTOS MAXIMOSINIC 28/1500Z 13.4N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 13.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.9N 66.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 13.9N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 13.8N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 13.5N 74.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 14.8N 75.6W 80 KT 90 MPH120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH$$PRONOSTICADOR BROWNTRADUCTOR COLON-PAGAN
000WTNT44 KNHC 291455TCDAT4TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 5NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1420161100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016The center of Matthew is exposed to the southwest of the deepconvection due to moderate southwesterly shear. Despite the shear,data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show thatMatthew is a little stronger this morning. The aircraft hasmeasured peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 80 kt, and believableSFMR winds of around 60 kt, which is the basis for the initialintensity. The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraftis down to 996 mb.Given the current shear and structure of Matthew, only slightstrengthening is predicted during the next 24 hours. The shear isforecast to slowly decrease over the next few days, although thereare some differences in the upper-level wind forecasts between theECMWF and GFS models. The ECMWF keeps a band of southwesterlyupper-level winds near Matthew, while the GFS generally shows lowershear. The NHC forecast assumes that there will be a reduction inshear and calls for intensification similar to the previousadvisory. The official wind speed forecast is between the lowerstatistical guidance and the more aggressive HWRF and GFDL models.Matthew is moving at 275/14 kt. The tropical storm is expected tomove westward to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge over thewestern Atlantic during the next couple of days. In about 48 hours,Matthew should turn northwestward when it approaches the westernperiphery of the ridge. After that time, the tropical cyclone isforecast to turn northward while a mid- to upper-level troughdevelops over the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS is still much faster thanthe ECMWF at taking Matthew northward. Although the east/west spreadamong the higher quality track models is somewhat smaller thismorning, there is still significant spread among the ECMWF ensemblesbeyond 3 days, and the overall confidence in the track forecast isstill low. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update ofthe previous forecast and is very close to the multi-modelconsensus.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.3N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.1N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 13.9N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 13.9N 72.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 15.3N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.0N 75.2W 85 KT 100 MPH120H 04/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH$$Forecaster Brown
000WTNT34 KNHC 291736TCPAT4BULLETINHURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5ANWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016200 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...14.2N 67.0WABOUT 190 MI...300 KM NE OF CURACAOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach 12 minHace 12 minutos Moraga, CA Ver traducción#Matthew's current MSLP of 993 mb is the highest for a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in September since Georges (1998).