Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: AngelAldair94 en Octubre 10, 2008, 20:40:19 pm
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Ojo con este sistema, que ha venido organizandose desde hace 2 dias. Parece que no se dirige hacia el caribe...
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Cada vez tiene mejor pinta, y las previsiones del Centro Nacional de Huracanes promulgan la posibilidad de formación de una depresión tropical en las próximas 48 horas...
A VERY LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
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Segun Jeff Master, hay 2 circulacion ciclonicas que estan compitiendo por tener el mayor calor posible, lo cuál puede hacer que el sistema se demore más en desarrollar.
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Según Quick SCAT, este sistema no ha terminado de cerrar circulación. Por tanto, no puede ser designada como Depresión Tropical... El NHC ha elevado las posibilidades de formación a ROJA
Dicho sistema se moverá al norte....
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Pues este sistema podría alcanzar el nivel de depresión tropical antes que el 98, en torno al martes y con bastantes más probabilidades que el otro sistema. Y aún tendría un largo recorrido para seguir tomando fuerza. Hasta ahora esta es su evolución:
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
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06 GMT 10/10/08 10.0N 34.0W 25 1008 Invest
12 GMT 10/10/08 10.3N 34.7W 25 1008 Invest
18 GMT 10/10/08 9.9N 35.8W 25 1008 Invest
06 GMT 10/11/08 11.6N 36.8W 25 1007 Invest
12 GMT 10/11/08 12.0N 37.3W 25 1007 Invest
18 GMT 10/11/08 13.0N 36.0W 30 1006 Invest
18 GMT 10/11/08 13.0N 36.0W 30 1006 Invest
00 GMT 10/12/08 14.5N 36.0W 30 1006 Invest
06 GMT 10/12/08 15.6N 36.0W 30 1006 Invest
12 GMT 10/12/08 16.2N 37.1W 30 1006 Invest
18 GMT 10/12/08 16.4N 37.7W 30 1005 Invest
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La única pega sobre este sistema es la alta cizalladura quee stá soportando encima............ Si no, ya sería ciclón tropical, si no lo es ya realmente! Yo diría que al menos es depresión tropical, aunque el centro esté completamente expuesto.
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En el blog de Jeff Masters comentan que ya es TS Nana.
La Navy la clasifica como Tormenta 14: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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Pues gracias por el aviso, amigo Fox :D En el Centro Nacional de Huracanes de Florida también han revalorizado a esta perturbación, aunque le pronostican una vida super efímera.................
000
WTNT44 KNHC 122047
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEGRADED SOME THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION FOR A
LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO CONSIDER IT A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EXPOSED WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO WESTERLY
SHEAR. AN ASCAT OVERPASS FROM 12Z INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30-35
KT. GIVEN THE TYPICAL LOW BIAS OF THIS INSTRUMENT...THE CYCLONE IS
DECLARED A TROPICAL STORM...THE FOURTEENTH OF THE 2008 SEASON. THE
LONG-TERM SURVIVAL OF NANA SEEMS BLEAK AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE. ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS NANA DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT OCCURRED SOONER.
NANA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/6 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 16.4N 37.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 39.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 17.0N 40.4W 25 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 17.4N 41.7W 25 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.9N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1800Z 19.0N 46.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Hace referencia a lo que comentaba en mi anterior mensaje, de un centro mega expuesto por la alta cizalladura en que se ha visto envuelto este cicloncete... Qué pena que vaya a durar tan poco...............
(http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/60/14luh0.jpg)
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Tal como se esperaba, NANA está ya más muerta que viva, a causa de la intensa cizalladura que la está machacando...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 131444
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
AS EXPECTED...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON NANA.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
YESTERDAY AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORT DOWNGRADING NANA TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A DAY OR SO.
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AT ABOUT 6 KT. NANA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1500Z 16.8N 39.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 17.1N 40.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 17.6N 41.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN