Cazatormentas
Foro de Meteorología => Seguimiento de huracanes, tifones y ciclones => Mensaje iniciado por: Eyestorm_Eric en Octubre 03, 2012, 17:47:31 pm
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Se concreta la DT numero 15 de la temporada, probable Oscar.
No amenaza al Caribe
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
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LOCALIZACION...17.3 NORTE 41.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 1160 MILLAS...1870 KM AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 320 GRADOS A 15 MPH...24 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARES...29.77 PULGADAS
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a_zps87abfc87.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b_zps01a73465.jpg)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c_zpsba8ea6e5.jpg)
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El germen del probable OSCAR ya está aquí, pero va a durar muy poco tiempo...
00
WTNT45 KNHC 031439
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE WERE CONFLICTING SIGNALS CONCERNING
THE EXISTENCE AND LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A MORE DEFINITIVE
CIRCULATION HAS TAKEN SHAPE...CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS
ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO DEEM THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SINCE A CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
TO TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 320/13 KT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE AND GETS
PICKED UP IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY INCREASING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IN FACT...EVERY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW BY 72 HOURS...AND THAT RESULT IS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 17.3N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.1N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.6N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 22.2N 41.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Con Nadine estamos hablando de que podria superar el record de mas dias activo en el Atlantico. Y con Oscar, se superaria el record de menos duracion en el Atlantico norte??? ;D
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Ya tenemos a OSCAR, que será muy efímero, el contrapunto a NADINE ;D
000
WTNT45 KNHC 040257
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS MORPHED INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP
CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AT
0000 UTC...DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND A 0030 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED SEVERAL
UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT PASS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WITH A CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35
KT. OSCAR IS ON THE CUSP OF ENTERING AN EVEN HIGHER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT OSCAR OPENING
UP INTO A TROUGH AND THEN LOSING ITS IDENTITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.
THE FORWARD SPEED OF OSCAR HAS SLOWED SOME IN RECENT HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/10. STEERED BY THE FLOW IN
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...OSCAR
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS
IT DECELERATES FURTHER. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
EMBEDDED IN A STRONG AND DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SHARP RECURVATURE AND A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRACK SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE
RIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 19.3N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.5N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 22.0N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 23.8N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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??? Y yo con la ignorancia de que se llamaba Fifteen, se ve grandito hace dias que lo llevo siguiendo desde su 10% y mirando su trayectoria parece que quiere llegar a canarias. Y la pregunta mia es ¿Es posible la fusion con Nadine?
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Esa fusion de ambos sistemas es un imposible. Segun el NHC, el viernes Nadine se situara bastante al suroeste de irlanda, mientras que oscar estara bastante al sur de las azores, asi que si no cambian las predicciones, eso es imposible. Por otro lado lado no entiendo porque algunos dicen que oscar sera muy efimero, cuando las predicciones para este sistema son bastante inciertas todavia.
Enviado desde mi Nexus 7 usando Tapatalk 2
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OSCAR se mantiene como un ciclón tropical extremadamente cizallado. De seguir así, no llega ni a mañana, ya que la circulación en superficie aparece muy deformada e incluso aparentemente con varios centros...
Toda la convección está desplazada al este, con un eje vertical extremadamente inclinado hacia esa dirección.
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9150/oscar_lra3.jpg)
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Podria llegar a canarias??
Enviado desde mi GT-I9100 usando Tapatalk 2
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Podria llegar a canarias??
Enviado desde mi GT-I9100 usando Tapatalk 2
No, porque la cizalladura la va a destruir, y la vaguada que quedará, absorbida por la borrasca que se está asentando cerca de Azores y que ya ha devorado a NADINE.
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::) Que funciones mas raras tiene nuestro planeta no sabia eso de que se puede adsorber una tormenta tropical o huracan, si puedo decir que este salio casi de la misma direccion de donde se creo Nadine ( Gambia, Africa )
000
WTNT35 TJSJ 041443
TCPSP5
BOLETÍN
TORMENTA TROPICAL OSCAR ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST JUEVES 04 de octubre 2012
OSCAR ... FORTALECE UN POCO Y VUELTAS DEL NORTE-NORESTE ...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST ... 1500 UTC ... INFORMACIÓN
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UBICACIÓN ... 20.6N 41.7W
ACERCA DE MI ... 1205 KM 1935 NW DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ... 45 MPH ... 75 KM / H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL ... NNE O 20 GRADOS A 9 MPH ... 15 KM / H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ... 1001 MB ... 29.56 PULGADAS
RELOJES Y ADVERTENCIAS
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NO HAY VIGILANCIAS NI AVISOS COSTEROS EN EFECTO.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
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A LAS 1100 AM AST ... 1500 UTC ... EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL Oscar fue
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.6 NORTE ... LONGITUD 41.7 OESTE. OSCAR ES
MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH ... 15 KM / H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD SE ESPERA
MAS TARDE HOY.
DATOS DE SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO
A CERCA DE 45 MPH ... 75 KM / H...WITH RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. POCO CAMBIO EN
FUERZA SE ESPERA ANTES DE OSCAR disipa en un día o dos.
VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 205 MILLAS ... 335 KM
AL ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1001 MB ... 29.56 PULGADAS.
RIESGOS QUE AFECTAN A LA TIERRA
----------------------
NINGUNO.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
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PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA ... 500 PM AST.
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Hora local de Caracas 1pm
Oscar cizallado, sin embargo los vientos se intensifican:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/b_zpsbe3b6403.gif)
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/c_zps5c1aa7c6.gif)
La actividad convectiva profunda se unica al Este del vórtice. Ahora Oscar podría ser engullida por el mismo frente que absorbió a Nadine, por lo que también tendría los días contados. Al contrario de Nadine, Oscar será una Tormenta muy corta:
(http://i1111.photobucket.com/albums/h470/eyestormeric2/a_zps51421b48.jpg)
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
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LOCALIZACION...20.6 NORTE 41.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 1205 MILLAS...1935 KM AL OESTE NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
CABO VERDE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 20 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1001 MILIBARES...29.56 PULGADAS
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Y como se esperaba, OSCAR caput................................ ::) la catana-cizalladura la ha dejado lista en un santiamén...
000
WTNT45 KNHC 051442
TCDAT5
REMNANTS OF OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152012
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012
VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGES AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT OSCAR NO LONGER
HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTION IS LINEAR AND IS LIMITED TO
THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. ON THIS BASIS...THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF OSCAR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 24.1N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS OF OSCAR
12H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
(http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8620/buKlDG3w8bAb0_sjg0.jpg)
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??? Duro 1 o 2 dias formados y luego pufff algo lo absorvio como un agujero negro en el espacio, mejor si pasa eso asi no corremos el riesgo de que un huracan haga desastres por nuestras tierras.
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Los restos de OSCAR todavía son visibles en las imágenes satelitales.
http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/105-previsiones-meteorologicas-prevision-del-tiempo/2938-el-veranillo-de-san-miguel-se-prolongara-hasta-el-jueves.html (http://www.cazatormentas.net/index.php/noticias-de-meteorologia-mainmenu-2/105-previsiones-meteorologicas-prevision-del-tiempo/2938-el-veranillo-de-san-miguel-se-prolongara-hasta-el-jueves.html)