Ya la tenemos, cerquita de las costas de México, Guatemala y El Salvador.

CARLOTTA, cerca de la categoría de huracán... Y sigue llamado a barrer la costa entre Oaxaca y Guerrero...

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150232
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012

CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT...AND WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BANDS CONTINUE TO COIL AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS DEFINED IN MOST OF THE QUADRANTS.  RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA INDICATE THAT AN INNER CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT AN EYEWALL HAS NOT FORMED YET. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE RESULTING IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS.
CARLOTTA IS ON AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND...AND MOST OF THE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN. IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...THE WEAKENING WILL OCCUR MORE
RAPIDLY.     

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND CARLOTTA
IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. THE NARROW RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO EXPAND IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
CARLOTTA ON A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST
BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF CARLOTTA MOVING
VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE THERAFTER...AND CARLOTTA
WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL IS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT...
PRIMARILY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.

USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 12.5N  94.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 13.5N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 14.8N  96.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 15.7N  97.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 16.2N  98.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Ya es huracán, y sigue intensificándose! Se ve como bastante probable que sufra una intensificación rápida en las próximas horas, con lo que México debe vigilar con mucha atención sus progresos!

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 151748
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN......


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST.  CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
135 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND CARLOTTA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...145 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

La última imagen del visible es impresionante Se le ve enorme, con un ojo pequeño, y un eyewall muy muy grueso... A ver qué dice la próxima actualización de datos del CNH. Además, ya en México, se ha formado un mazacote convectivo de impresión :</O :</O :</O :</O :</O

Efectivamente, CARLOTTA está explotando... El avión cazahuracanes ha encontrado que el ciclón está ejecutando una fase de intensificación rápida

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 152050
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT CARLOTTA IS NOW A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 96.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE OVER OR
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
WEAKENING AS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

Última imagen del radar sobre el ciclón tropical....... Preciosa! Después, ha debido de estar toda la noche inoperativo.

Buen seguimiento compis