Autor Tema: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!! (Leído 62707 veces)

seal · « **Respuesta #165 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 10:22:12 am »

Se la ve bonita en la foto de ayer

Y sigue igual de fuerza.
Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Zeta

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
09 GMT 01/01/06 25.7N 38.5W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/01/06 25.2N 38.6W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/01/06 25.0N 38.2W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/02/06 24.7N 38.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/02/06 24.5N 39.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/02/06 23.6N 40.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/02/06 23.5N 41.1W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/03/06 23.5N 41.2W 60 997 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/03/06 23.3N 41.3W 65 995 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/03/06 23.0N 42.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/03/06 23.2N 42.4W 65 994 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/04/06 22.7N 42.7W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/04/06 22.1N 43.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm

El amigo jeff comento ayer que hoy podria llegar a ser huracan: The Hurricane Season of 2005 refuses to quit. Tropical Storm Zeta has not changed much since yesterday, but the forecast for its future has changed considerably. Zeta may become a hurricane by tomorrow.
A ver que pasa

storm2002 · « **Respuesta #166 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 10:36:28 am »

Ademas lo que has puesto Dani en ingles se entiende a la perfeccion, se le nota un tanto desesperado ...

Es que la temporada ha sido para estarlo eh!

MeteoTeide · « **Respuesta #167 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 11:30:36 am »

Desde luego es para estar desesperado, es cierto, vaya una temporadita.

seal · « **Respuesta #168 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 12:28:38 pm »

Vaya trayectoria la de zeta, rara de narices.
A canarias parece que no la afectara a con seguridad

aso 111 · « **Respuesta #169 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 15:00:58 pm »

nuestros amigos del noaa hablan otra vez:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 040833
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006

ZETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -55C TO -60C NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER....WITH RAGGED OUTER BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WAS APPARENT IN CIRRUS CLOUD
MOTIONS EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 KT AT
TAFB TO 45 KT AT AFWA AND ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

ZETA HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND FASTER OVER THE PAST 6-12
HR...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 21N38W. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW IMAGES
SUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 220/6. ZETA IS SOUTH OF A MEAN DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHILE A MEAN DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...WHILE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW TROUGH WILL CAUSE
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF ZETA...
WITH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. THIS EVOLUTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72
HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE UKMET WHICH CALLS FOR RECURVATURE ALONG 48W IN 48-72 HR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.

ZETA IS WELL EMBEDDED IN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS...WHICH OVERALL IS NOT A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES WILL PASS OVER ZETA DURING THE NEXT
48 HR...MOST NOTABLY THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD REACH THE STORM IN ABOUT 36 HR. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SURGES AND LULLS IN VERTICAL SHEAR...
AND BASED ON THIS THE INTENSITY FORCAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING
FOR 48 HR. AFTER THAT...A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF ZETA
SHOULD CAUSE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
STORM...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THEREFORE...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ZETA WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HR
AND DISSIPATING BY 120 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL STILL
WANTS TO MAKE ZETA A HURRICANE...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRIEFLY PROVIDE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.1N 43.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 21.9N 43.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 22.4N 45.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 23.9N 46.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 25.5N 46.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 49.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Vigorro... · « **Respuesta #170 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 15:47:45 pm »

Ups, ¿sera un bache o sera el comienzo del fin?

09 GMT 01/04/06 22.1N 43.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/04/06 21.9N 44.0W 60 997 Tropical Storm

La ultima discusion del NCH:

Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 21

Statement as of 10:00 am EST on January 04, 2006

The satellite presentation indicates that Zeta is not as strong as
it was yesterday but still has a small but vigorous circulation.
There is an area of deep convection near the center and there are
no signs of strong shear affecting the cyclone at this time. Based
on the latest T-numbers and Quikscat...the initial intensity has
been lowered to 50 knots. Pulses of strong upper-level winds are
expected to affect Zeta during the next few days. These unfavorable
winds should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken. However...the
intensity forecast is highly uncertain.
The best estimate of the initial motion is 270/6. Zeta is being
steered by a low to mid-level high to the north. As an approaching
strong winter low passes by to the north of the cyclone...a gradual
turn to the northwest is anticipated. It appears that this winter
low will pass by very fast and will not induce recurvature. Zeta as
a weakening cyclone should then move between the northwest and
north-northwest until dissipation. As you can see...I ran out
things to say.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/1500z 21.9n 44.0w 50 kt
12hr VT 05/0000z 22.0n 44.9w 45 kt
24hr VT 05/1200z 23.0n 46.0w 40 kt
36hr VT 06/0000z 24.5n 47.0w 35 kt
48hr VT 06/1200z 26.0n 48.0w 30 kt
72hr VT 07/1200z 28.0n 51.0w 25 kt
96hr VT 08/1200z 30.0n 54.0w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 09/1200z...dissipated

$$

Viene a decir que zeta no esta tan fuerte como ayer pero todavia tiene una circulacion pequeña pero vigorosa... hay muestras de fuerte conveccion cerca del centro y no hay muestras de esquileo que ahora mismo lo afecten... se espera que fuertes vientos en altura lo afecten en los proximos dias y que por lo tanto se debilite... sin embargo el pronostico en cuanto a su intensidad es bastante incierto... deberia moverse hacia el norte o norte-noroeste hasta su disipacion... como ven actuo en funcion de lo que veo

aso 111 · « **Respuesta #171 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 21:16:50 pm »

toda su vida

09 GMT 01/01/06 25.7N 38.5W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/01/06 25.2N 38.6W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/01/06 25.0N 38.2W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/02/06 24.7N 38.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/02/06 24.5N 39.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/02/06 23.6N 40.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/02/06 23.5N 41.1W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/03/06 23.5N 41.2W 60 997 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/03/06 23.3N 41.3W 65 995 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/03/06 23.0N 42.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/03/06 23.2N 42.4W 65 994 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/04/06 22.7N 42.7W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/04/06 22.1N 43.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/04/06 21.9N 44.0W 60 997 Tropical Storm

aso 111 · « **Respuesta #172 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 22:29:26 pm »

se esta debilitando por minutos

21 GMT 01/04/06 21.7N 45.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm

seal · « **Respuesta #173 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 22:31:03 pm »

Demasiado ha dado de si, y es que en diciembre/enero no se ven demasiadas tormenta tropicales, por no decir apenas ninguna.

aso 111 · « **Respuesta #174 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 22:32:12 pm »

y la discusion del noaa no parece darle animos:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 042028
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006

ZETA CONSISTS OF A VERY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY VANISHING. THERE ARE A FEW
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS
THAT ZETA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY SHEAR AND
DRY AIR ARE DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A REMNANT
LOW FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

NOW THAT ZETA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY BE
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ZETA SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.7N 45.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 46.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.5N 47.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 25.0N 48.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 50.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 55.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

seal · « **Respuesta #175 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 22:33:05 pm »

Está el amigo avila como forecaster

Vigorro... · « **Respuesta #176 en:** Enero 04, 2006, 23:58:58 pm »

Cita de: aso 111 en Enero 04, 2006, 22:32:12 pm

y la discusion del noaa no parece darle animos:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 042028
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006

ZETA CONSISTS OF A VERY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY VANISHING. THERE ARE A FEW
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS
THAT ZETA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY SHEAR AND
DRY AIR ARE DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A REMNANT
LOW FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

NOW THAT ZETA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY BE
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ZETA SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.7N 45.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 46.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.5N 47.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 25.0N 48.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 50.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 55.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Dice que Zeta consiste ahora mismo en una zona de muy fuerte circulacion en niveles bajos pero con una conveccion que decrece rapidamente... hay algunas nubes tormentosas al este del centro... los vientos de 45 nudos se mantienen al norte y al este... parece que el esquileo y el aire seco estan destruyendo el ciclon... una tendencia mas rapida al debilitamiento debe comenzar pronto... sin embargo aguantara como un remanente varios dias... como se esta convirtiendo en un sistema de capas bajas sera conducido seguramente por entre el chorro subtropical y un frente frio que se le aproxima (no se si la traduccion de lo subrayado es correcta)... luego Zeta girara mas al noroeste hasta su disipacion.

seal · « **Respuesta #177 en:** Enero 05, 2006, 08:32:39 am »

Pos ahi segui, muy debil pero como tormenta tropical, habrá que ver el proximo parte de las 9 que puede ya haber bajado de "rango".
Tracking Info For Tropical Storm Zeta

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
09 GMT 01/01/06 25.7N 38.5W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/01/06 25.2N 38.6W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/01/06 25.0N 38.2W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/02/06 24.7N 38.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/02/06 24.5N 39.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/02/06 23.6N 40.7W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/02/06 23.5N 41.1W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/03/06 23.5N 41.2W 60 997 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/03/06 23.3N 41.3W 65 995 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/03/06 23.0N 42.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/03/06 23.2N 42.4W 65 994 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/04/06 22.7N 42.7W 65 994 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/04/06 22.1N 43.1W 65 994 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/04/06 21.9N 44.0W 60 997 Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/04/06 21.7N 45.0W 50 1000 Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/05/06 21.7N 46.0W 40 1004 Tropical Storm

seal · « **Respuesta #178 en:** Enero 05, 2006, 09:39:52 am »

Temores confirmados, ya es depresion tropical.
09 GMT 01/05/06 22.0N 47.0W 35 1005 Tropical Depression

Deily · « **Respuesta #179 en:** Enero 05, 2006, 09:42:27 am »

Descanse en paz

Autor Tema: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!! (Leído 62707 veces)

seal

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

storm2002

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

MeteoTeide

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

seal

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

aso 111

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

Vigorro...

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

aso 111

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

aso 111

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

seal

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

aso 111

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

seal

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

Vigorro...

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

seal

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

seal

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!

Deily

Re: Tormenta Tropical ZETA en marcha!!! 30 de diciembre de 2005!!!