discussion numero 24 del noaa:

WTNT45 KNHC 050830
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 50 KT OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER ZETA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HR IT IS LOCATED
MORE THAN 80 N MI FROM THE EXPOSED CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...ZETA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  ZETA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALONG 57W-58W NORTH OF 23N MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THESE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL
CAUSE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW ZETA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 40-60 KT NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY TO
IMPACT ZETA AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ZETA TO
BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 96
HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD CAUSE
A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP AS IT APPROACHES ZETA...BUT ANY SUCH FLARE-UP
OR RESULTING INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 22.0N  47.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 23.0N  48.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 24.3N  49.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 25.4N  50.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 26.4N  52.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0600Z 28.5N  56.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

si os dijera que las nubes se estan volviendo a reagrupar me creeriais?
yo creo q todavia le queda mucha guerra por dar a zeta y sino mirar el satelite a
las 12

No darlo por muerto todavia

15 GMT 01/05/06  22.4N 47.6W     40       1005     Tropical Storm

acaba de resucitar  es otra vez tormenta tropical

Qué caña de perturbaciones tropicales Discusión número 25 del NHC:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 051416
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006

A 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CAME IN SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED INDICATED SEVERAL 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WIND VECTORS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE 12Z DVORAK SATELLITE SHEAR PATTERN
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE TAFB WAS 35 KT... AND
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EVEN CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE THAT
ANALYSIS WAS MADE. IN ADDITION... SHIP ZCIH7 LOCATED ABOUT 135 NMI
NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 30 KT... WHICH MATCHED
UP WELL WITH NEARBY QUIKSCAT WINDS. SO...REGRETFULLY...THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT AND ZETA IS A TROPICAL STORM
ONCE AGAIN. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 05/0915Z UW-CIMSS
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1006 MB AND 38 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ZETA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE WIND ANALYSES INDICATE A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED ALONG 56W LONGITUDE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT ZETA POLEWARD AND/OR SHEAR THE SYSTEM
APART... LEAVING BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24-36
HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW MAY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE SHIPS MODEL'S 850-200 MB SHEAR OF 68 KT IS NOT THE ACTUAL SHEAR
AFFECTING ZETA. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 850-300 MB WESTERLY
SHEAR TO ONLY BE AROUND 30-35 KT. AS A RESULT... ZETA MIGHT BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO
BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS VERY HOSTILE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/1500Z 22.4N  47.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 23.3N  48.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N  49.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 25.3N  51.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 26.3N  53.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  56.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/051416.shtml

Nada de descanse en paz, ya veras como algo aguanta como TD 

Ya dije a las dos de la tarde que era pronto para enterrarlo, jejeje...

si gue como ts pero mas floja:

15 GMT 01/05/06  22.4N 47.6W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/05/06  23.0N 48.2W     40       1007     Tropical Storm

la discussion nº 26 del nhc:

000
WTNT45 KNHC 052013
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006

ZETA HAS MAINTAINED A NICE TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION... AND
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM THE
TAFB HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 30 KT AND 35 KT OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS... AND ODT VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T3.0/45 KT. LOW-CLOUD
DRIFT WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND 40 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT
32-KT SURFACE WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
05/1613Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1007 MB AND 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/07 KT.  ZETA REMAINS ON TRACK
AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG
53W LONGITUDE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 30 KT. ZETA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD
BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION
"SHOULD" GET SHEARED AWAY BY 24 HOURS OR SO... LEAVING BEHIND A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A TRAILING
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

JUST ABOUT THE TIME THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO WANE... NEW CONVECTION
REFIRES JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ZETA BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W LONGITUDE... INDICATING THAT
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
FOR IT TO TAP INTO. THEREFORE... ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH STRONG SHEAR BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH "SHOULD" DECAPITATE THE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/2100Z 23.0N  48.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 23.8N  49.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 24.7N  50.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 25.7N  52.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 27.0N  55.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 31.0N  56.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED

aviso publico nº 26 del noaa
000
WTCA45 TJSJ 052051
TCPSP5

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO  26
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
5 PM AST JUEVES 5 DE ENERO DE 2006

...LA TENAZ ZETA AUN PERSISTIENDO COMO TORMENTA TROPICAL SOBRE EL   
   OCEANO ATLANTICO CENTRAL...

A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ZETA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 48.2
OESTE O COMO A 1020 MILLAS...1640 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE
LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE.

ZETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH... 13
KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL
CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65
KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN
DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA
AFUERA HASTA 90 MILLAS...150 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 
PULGADAS.

REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...23.0 NORTE... 48.2 OESTE.
MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE  8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 1007 MILIBARAS.

Qué poquito queda de ZETA ya, degradada a depresión tropical y mostrando sólo una leve circulación ciclónica a niveles bajos y una ligera convección al E del centro del mismo Ahora creo que ya podemos decir que ZETA está en las últimas... Pero ha durado más de lo que esperábamos muchos

Su vida completa:

Tracking info for Tropical Storm Zeta
 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
09 GMT 01/01/06  25.7N 38.5W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/01/06  25.2N 38.6W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/01/06  25.0N 38.2W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/02/06  24.7N 38.7W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/02/06  24.5N 39.7W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/02/06  23.6N 40.7W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/02/06  23.5N 41.1W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/03/06  23.5N 41.2W     60        997     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/03/06  23.3N 41.3W     65        995     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/03/06  23.0N 42.1W     65        994     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/03/06  23.2N 42.4W     65        994     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/04/06  22.7N 42.7W     65        994     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/04/06  22.1N 43.1W     65        994     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/04/06  21.9N 44.0W     60        997     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/04/06  21.7N 45.0W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/05/06  21.7N 46.0W     40       1004     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/05/06  22.0N 47.0W     35       1005     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 01/05/06  22.4N 47.6W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 01/05/06  23.0N 48.2W     40       1007     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 01/06/06  23.2N 48.7W     40       1007     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 01/06/06  23.3N 49.3W     40       1007     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 01/06/06  23.0N 49.9W     35       1009     Tropical Depression