Bueno, pues eso...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 282034
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011
400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

DON HAS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER.  ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE STORM.  IN ADDITION...A STREAM OF
ARC CLOUDS/GUSTS FRONTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CONVECTION.  DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO 1005 MB...WHILE THE AIRCRAFT WINDS
SUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/14.  DON REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS
COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH SHIFTED NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND
LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
STABILIZES AROUND A TRACK SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGAIN FORECAST MODERATE SHEAR TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DON MAKES LANDFALL.  THIS AND CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH DRY
AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO IMPEDE
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT DON WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM AND NOT AS A
HURRICANE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
SHEAR AND ARC CLOUDS...THEN CALLS FOR DON TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KT NEAR LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE 48 HR POINT AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY
THE 72 HR POINT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 24.9N  91.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 25.8N  93.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 26.8N  95.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 27.8N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/1800Z 28.8N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1800Z 30.5N 103.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Pasote de analisis  :D1 :D1

Jajajaja, Eric, espero no haber escrito ninguna burrada. Simplemente es la gran inspiración que me produce ver un loop tan sencillamente precioso, y sin que esté causando daños a nadie

DON, como decías, más fuerte... Además, se ha movido hacia el W, cosa que no se esperaba...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 290232
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011
1000 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN
INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM DON AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD
JOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE CYCLONE
IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY
NOAA AND AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE 996 AND 998
RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY A HIGHER PRESSURE WAS REPORTED BUT THE
DROPSONDE DID NOT HIT THE VERY SMALL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY
BASED ON A BELIEVABLE 43-KNOT SFMR REPORT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
STILL TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT AS REPORTED BY BOTH PLANES.
SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AND THE
CYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL. IN FACT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPORTANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY.   

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DON HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. SINCE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO PERSIST...A CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT AND THIS DUE TO THE INITIAL WESTWARD JOG AND
NOT DUE TO ANY IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN THE
SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DON. AN UNEXPECTED SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 24.7N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 25.5N  94.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 26.6N  96.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 27.5N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  31/0000Z 28.5N 101.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Este desvío puede restar posibilidades de obtener un pico de intensidad más elevado, puesto que con movimiento NW, DON iba a pasar sobre aguas con más OHC.

Qué gran análisis esl tuyo Pedro,  una gozada leerlo, a ver si nos haces más de estos con fututos ciclones porque la verdad, es una maravilla analizar un ciclón fijándose en esos pequeños detalles que nos muestras.

Gracias por el piropo, Santi A lo mejor estas disertaciones deberían de ir en un hilo a parte........... Pero la verdad es que pensar en ciclones tropicales como el pasado CINDY, me quita el sueño.......... Ciclones que sobreviven, con potencia, a condiciones muy hostiles de cizalladuras, con valores de más de 30 KT..............  ME surgen muchas dudas....... La cizalladura neta, ¿cómo se condiderará realmente? ¿desde un punto fijo en superficie, o relativa a la tormenta? No sé si se me entiende. Quiero decir que no puede tener el mismo efecto una cizalladura de 20 KT en un ciclón que se desplace a 10-15 KT en el mismo sentido que la cizalladura, que un ciclón estático o que se esté moviendo en sentido contrario al de la cizalladura... Quizá si un ciclón se engendra en un germen que ya de por sí lleva una aceleración, esto hace que la cizalladura neta sobre el sistema, si incide en él desde el mismo sentido que su propio movimiento, sea mucho más baja...

Pensamientos en voz alta

La imagen de microondas muestra topes muy muy fríos Se nota que ha llegado a una zona de mayor OHC... Sin duda, está más fuerte que esta mañana.

Hay un recon sobre Don. A ver qué dice...
DE momento reporta 45 kts. y 999.8 mb

Pedro, ¡una pasada de análisis!  :D1 :D1 :D1
Y una pasada de animación 

Y su sitio es este. ¿Dónde lo ibas a esconder si no? Se agradece el tiempo de dedicación.
El tuyo y el de todos.   

Saludos.