aqui la tormenta

DARBY se mantiene como huracán de categoría 1, aunque rozando la 2 en el último boletín del CNH de Florida con 80 KT (83 KT sería categoría 2)... Todavía tiene unas cuantas horas por delante para intensificarse algo más pero, después de ahí, la tendencia prevista es a la de debilitarse por aguas progresivamente más frías.

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150246
TCDEP5

HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016

Darby has become a little better organized during the past 6 hours
with a ragged 30-nmi-diameter eye having appeared within the central
dense overcast. Upper-level outflow has continued to expand in all
quadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt based
on a blend of consensus subjective intensity estimates of T4.5/77 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates of 83
kt and 85 kt from AMSU and ADT, respectively.

Darby's initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt after smoothing through
some wobbles in the track. Otherwise, there is no significant change
to previous track or philosophy. The latest model guidance remains
in excellent agreement on Darby moving west-northwestward to
westward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn to a more due
west motion after that as the ridge to the north of the hurricane
builds slightly southward and westward. The new NHC track forecast
is basically just an extension of the previous advisory track, and
remains near the southern edge of the guidance suite, following the
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain 10 kt or
less throughout the 5-day forecast period, SSTs decreasing below
27C and the large eye of Darby argue against any significant
strengthening during the next day or so. After that, SSTs
decreasing to less than 26C should induce gradual weakening by 36 h
and beyond. However, the aforementioned weak wind shear conditions
should act to prevent a more typical rapid weakening trend from
occurring. This is similar to the slower-than-normal weakening trend
noted with Tropical Storm Celia during the past couple of days while
that cyclone has been moving through a similar environment of low
shear and cool waters near 25C. The official NHC intensity forecast
is above the IVCN intensity consensus model, and closely follows a
blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 16.0N 119.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 16.4N 120.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 16.9N 122.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 17.4N 124.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 18.1N 130.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 18.3N 135.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 18.6N 140.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

HAWAII LO TIENE NEGRO

De forma inesperada, DARBY ha seguido ganando algo de intensidad durante el día de hoy, sobre aguas más frescas Incluso el CNH indica que ha ganado una cierta estructura anular al haber perdido las bandas exteriores de lluvia.

Ya tenemos la primera singularidad de la temporada en esta cuenca oceánica

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162033
TCDEP5

HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Darby appears to have been strengthening during the day despite
moving over increasingly cooler waters.  The deep convection is
becoming more symmetric, the eye has been warming intermittently,
and the hurricane appears to be losing some of its outer banding.
In fact, Darby has developed a marginal annular structure.  Dvorak
estimates have generally risen since this morning, and the initial
intensity is raised to 100 kt.  This makes Darby the second major
hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season.

Sea surface temperatures beneath Darby are currently around 25.5C
and will continue to decrease over the next few days.  But, given
that vertical shear is expected to remain low through at least day
3, and the hurricane's marginal annular structure, Darby is likely
to remain relatively steady in intensity or only gradually weaken in
the short-term.  Faster weakening is still expected later in the
forecast period due to the added effect of increasing shear.
Almost every reliable intensity model shows Darby weakening fast
during the next day or two.  However, the HWRF model is a notable
outlier and keeps Darby as a hurricane at least through day 3.  The
updated NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous
forecast during the first 36 hours and is near the top end of the
main pack of intensity models.

The initial motion remains 285/9 kt.  The subtropical ridge to the
north of Darby is weakening, but it should stay strong enough to
steer the hurricane west-northwestward or westward through the
entire forecast period.  The new run of the ECMWF has sped up
compared to the other track models, but otherwise there is very
little spread in the guidance envelope.  The updated NHC track
forecast is closest to an average of the GFS and ECMWF and is very
close to the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 18.0N 124.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 18.3N 126.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 18.5N 128.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 18.8N 130.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 19.0N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 19.7N 136.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 19.7N 141.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 18.7N 146.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

Menudo bicharraco