ESTOFEX ya ha actualizado para mañana, metiendo la Alerta 1 en el NE y Este de España.
La "discussion" es bastante larga.
Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is forecast over the Iberian Peninsula, already starting during the early morning hours in a weakly capped air mass. For Portugal and most parts of Spain, the atmosphere remains weakly sheared beneath pool of lower geopotential heights, so rapidly clustering pulse storms/weakly organized multicells are forecast with marginal hail, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. This activity decreases during the night, as CAPE wanes.
Conditions for organized thunderstorms improve over E/NE Spain, as prolonged period of moist onshore flow is expected east of the broad cyclonic vortex (centered over W-Spain). This moist inflow next to 20 m/s DLS creates a favorable CAPE/shear overlap and organized multicells/an isolated supercell are forecast. Capping of the onshore air mass is quite weak, too, so for now, expect more discrete storms along the NE-coast of Spain and just offshore, where 850 hPa temperatures remain a tad higher. Nevertheless, the main risk will be excessive rainfall with slow moving synoptic features, prolonged period of modest onshore flow and rich BL moisture just waiting offshore. In addition, upper divergence improves during the afternoon hours, as a mid-/upper jet evolves parallel to the E-coast of Spain. We went with a level 1 for that risk, as no real focus for extremely excessive amounts can be seen and MCS propagation vectors reveal only weak signals for backbuilding. Also no well structured LLJ is seen. Next to that, isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are expected.
The night hours remain a bit more puzzling regarding initiation. Environmental conditions would be supportive for organized thunderstorms, but forcing is missing due to the slow movement of the upper trough. If later data indicate conditions more supportive for initiation, an upgrade may become necessary.
Remarco esto en negrita, porque tienen muchas dudas de lo que puede acontecer, incluso podría haber una reactualización.
Tema: 2010/09 seguimiento ESPECIAL: DANA y posterior vaguada (Del 12/09 al ??/??) (Leído 31146 veces)