.... Parts of Portugal and Spain ....
Downstream of a decaying upper-level trough just west of Portugal winds at all levels turn on southerly directions during the morning hours, but veer somewhat in the mid-levels during the early afternoon hours onwards. Main reason for this wind shift is the highly positive tilt of upper-level trough, centered over Portugal during the afternoon hours. Main concern for an isolated severe weather risk arises along the Strait of Gibraltar and north / northeastwards. Strongest warming / cap looks like to be displaced to the east and despite limited diabatic heating, surface temperatures in this area should soar into the mid-tens. In addition, current dewpoints are already good and after the end of easterly winds ( e.g. Levante-event in the Strait of Gibraltar ) during the morning hours an onset of southerly winds will push another surge of moist air northwards, increasing dewpoints 1-2°C ( e.g. Granada sounding ). Forecast soundings in this area hint on deep convection, steep LL lapse rates and strong veering at lowest levels. Despite the already uncapped airmass a modest mid-level speed max approaches from the west, placing the area of interest under the left-exit region.
Overall degree of shear is not impressive, but low or slightly lifted LCLs and combination of veering and maximized 0-3km instability release could be enough for an isolated funnel / short-lived tornado and large hail report. We want to highlight this area in such a broad general thunderstorm area and increased probabilities to a low-end level-1. Severe weather / Thunderstorms will diminish after sunset.
Regarding thunderstorm coverage, the main activity will be confined to S-Portugal and extreme SW-Spain. There will be a flash flood risk as steering flow is weak, airmass quite moist and a persistent 15m/s LLJ points to the coast of Portugal for a prolonged period.
He de suponer que pondran alertas para esas zonas(viendo que el foro es eminentemente de andalucia oriental)...bueno que os quiero dar una alegria y que salgais de caceria,para que vayais calentando motores.
Por ejemplo hay alerta amarilla por lluvias de 15 mm(en 1 hora),en Sierra Luna 188 mm ?¿ eso es para mas alerta pienso.